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Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa What Happened to Africa s Emerging Maize Revolution

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Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa What Happened to Africa s Emerging Maize Revolution

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    1. Adoption of Maize Technologies in East Africa What Happened to Africa’s Emerging Maize Revolution?  Hugo De Groote, Cheryl Doss, Stephen D. Lyimo and Wilfred Mwangi Presentation for the FASID Forum V, “Green Revolution in Asia and its Transferability to Africa”, Tokyo, December 8-10, 2002  

    2. The Problem 1997: “The Emerging Maize Revolution in Africa” indicated that research and extension resulted in Development of new technologies Adoption of those technologies Increased food production for Africa

    3. And maize production in Africa: increased indeed

    4. But: maize production per person decreased

    5. What is so important about maize in Africa? Maize is the most important food crop in East Africa Maize is most likely to respond to new technologies: Hybrid Fertilizer Maize is most likely to benefit from private sector involvement Maize is more interesting to the urban consumer

    6. In this presentation Adoption of maize technologies in East Africa Kenya Tanzania Ethiopia Based on: Literature and secondary data Seed production and sales data 22 adoption studies

    7. Maize in East and Central Africa

    8. Evolution of Maize in East Africa

    9. Maize in Kenya, 1960-2000 Maize breeding program started in 1950s Hybrids for the high-potential areas very successful Research and seed production by state, linked 1990s: liberalization, new companies enter Many new varieties, not succesful 1 hybrid = 50% of sales (from 1976/1986) Fertilizer market, agribusiness liberalized 2002: Kenya Seed Company privatized, still dominates

    10. Maize in Kenya, 1960-2000

    11. Evolution of adoption in Kenya

    12. Kenya: agroecological zones

    13. Kenya: seed sales and production

    14. Adoption studies

    15. Tanzania First maize breeding program in 1960, 2 popular OPVs were released Second program launched in 1974: 15 OPVs and hybrids 5 state foundation seed farms, 1 state-owned certified seed company: TANSEED mid 1990s: liberalization of seed sector At least 5 companies active, mostly

    16. Maize in Tanzania, 1960-2000

    17. Seed Sales - Tanzania Improved seed sales in 2000: 7.75 tons Negative trend At seed rate of 15 kg/ha = 517,000 ha Area in improved seed = 26% (ignoring recycling)

    18. Adoption of improved seed and fertilizer - Tanzania

    19. Factors influencing adoption - Tanzania

    20. Ethiopia Background Feudal system until 1974 Marxist/military regime until 1991 Since: more liberal and, but still waiting for elections Maize system Strong research and extension program 1993: Sasakawa 2000 extension package (maize seed, fertilizer and credit, based on demonstration plots 1995: national extension system takes over – massive Yield almost doubles, but prices in 2001 drop by 2/3 Demand for improved seed in 2002 very low

    21. Ethiopia – Maize evolution

    22. Adoption of Improved Maize Varieties - Ethiopia 2001: 7,700 tons, at 25 kg/ha = 307,000 ha Area in improve maize varieties = 307,000 ha or 21% Price decrease from 1999/2000 to 2001: by 2/3

    23. Factors influencing adoption - Ethiopia

    24. Fertilizer adoption

    25. Conclusions - Methodological need for: time series data on seed and fertilizer: Production sales prices better definitions, clear concepts Logit analysis not very promising, rather: institutional analysis Policy analysis Historic analysis

    26. Conclusions – Green Revolution Farmers adopt improved varieties and fertilizer when economical Institutions are important: National research programs Extension Credit Price policy

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