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Ecological forecasting and hindcasting in the intertidal zone: From weather and oceanography to body temperatures, mortality risks and biogeography. David S. Wethey, Brian Helmuth, Sarah A. Woodin, Thomas J. Hilbish, Venkataraman Lakshmi University of South Carolina Columbia SC 29208 USA

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slide1

Ecological forecasting and hindcasting in the intertidal zone:From weather and oceanography to body temperatures, mortality risks and biogeography

David S. Wethey, Brian Helmuth, Sarah A. Woodin, Thomas J. Hilbish, Venkataraman Lakshmi

University of South Carolina

Columbia SC 29208 USA

wethey@biol.sc.edu

how hot is it on the shore how do we measure and predict risks to coastal populations
How hot is it on the shore?How do we measure and predict risks to coastal populations?
  • Measurements
    • Biomimetic temperature sensors
    • Mortality and heat-shock protein expression
  • Forecasting, Hindcasting, Nowcasting
    • Mechanistic simulation models
      • tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting
    • Based on ground and satellite climate data
    • Tide model to predict inundation times
      • tbone.geol.sc.edu/tide
model cartoon
Model Cartoon

Models based on NOAH Land Surface Model used in

NOAA Global Forecast System and North American Model.

We developed a new “vegetation type” : intertidal mussel bed.

All of the physics is from NOAH.

Tides: xtide, SST: GHRSST, wave runup: Wavewatch III

slide4

Hindcast Verification of Model

US West Coast 2000-2004

95% of model months are within range of

biomimetic logger observations

of average daily maximum temperature

Gilman, Wethey, Helmuth 2006. PNAS 103:9560-9565

what is the relationship between climate change and biogeographic change in intertidal species
What is the relationship between climate change and biogeographic change in intertidal species?
  • Major space occupiers / habitat modifiers
  • Barnacles –
    • Semibalanus balanoides
  • Mussels –
    • Mytilus californianus, M. edulis
    • M. galloprovincialis, M. trossulus
  • Worms-
    • Diopatra neapolitana, Diopatra cuprea
    • Abarenicola pacifica, Arenicola marina

Wethey and Woodin 2008, Hydrobiologia 606: 139-151

forecasting
Forecasting
  • Forecasting products for coastal managers
    • Warnings of die-offs
    • Sublethal effects on dominant space-occupiers
  • Short term forecasts (7-days)
  • Seasonal forecasts (8-months)
  • Derived from operational products
    • North American Model/Global Forecast System
    • Climate Forecast System
    • Wave Watch III
    • GHRSST
  • Climate Scenarios
    • NOAA/GFDL Model
    • NASA/GISS Model
slide7

Rock temperatures:

Barnacles/mussels

Forecasts capture

magnitude and

amplitude of both

Seasonal trends

and

Daily fluctuations

Bias 1.12°C

RMS error 3.22°C

slide8
Seven Day Forecast of Intertidal Mussel Bed Temperatures Worldwidehttp://tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting/7day.html

Forecast runs daily, using midnight GMT forecasts from

NOAA Global Forecast System, North American Model and GHRSST as input.

US East/West, Europe, S Africa, New Zealand, Hokkaido/Sakhalin

slide9
Seasonal Forecast of Intertidal Mussel Bed Temperature Anomalies Worldwidehttp://tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting/8month_anomaly.html

Forecast runs biweekly, using midnight GMT forecasts from

NOAA Climate Forecast System as input.

US East/West, Europe, S Africa, New Zealand, Hokkaido/Sakhalin

slide10

Forecasts on US West Coast

Predicted Mass Mortality of Keystone Species

July 8-15, 2006

July 23-30, 2006

Aug 1-8, 2006

Mass mortality of

Pisaster starfish

In Oregon, but not

In Central California

Pisaster is keystone

predator on

West Coast

slide11

Forecasts In New Zealand Predicted Mass Mortality

Feb 1-4, 2007

Feb 5-8,2007

Feb 14-17,2007

Feb 18-21,2007

Mass mortality of

Burrowing echinoids

Echinocardium

At Warkworth NZ

Feb 21, 2007

mytilus mussel survival in lab and field
Mytilus mussel survival in lab and field

Field Temperatures

Lab Survival

Daily Survival

temperature

Cumulative Survival

Sierra J Jones

slide13

0/year

0 to 2/year

> 2/year

West Coast Mussel Mortality Risk: Frequency of 36 C temperatures for at least 2 hours over 3 consecutive days

Allison Smith

hindcasting historical sea surfacetemperature to 1900
Hindcasting Historical Sea SurfaceTemperature to 1900
  • ICOADS data from ships of opportunity
  • Monthly data interpolated to 1 km grid
    • 12-point inverse squared distance weighting
  • Sampled at 10 km intervals along coast
  • Verified 1985-2000 vs AVHRR
  • Used in CART bioclimatic envelope models

Lima et al. 2006. J. Biogeography 33: 812-822

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Proof of concept of ecological forecasting tools
  • Short term intertidal forecasts predicted unusually high temperatures during two local mass mortality events
    • Pisaster starfish in Oregon, 2006
    • Echinocardium urchins in New Zealand, 2007
    • Laboratory data on thermal tolerance for Mytilus species allow prediction of heat shock protein expression and mortality
  • Hindcasting can be used to explain historical range shifts
  • Seasonal forecasts can be used to predict reproductive success or failure in some species.
  • Web-based tools can be used to provide warning of potential die-offs in intertidal habitats worldwide.
  • See Poster 268 (Allison Smith) – worldwide risk analysis
  • See Poster 239 (Lauren Yamane) – climate & predators
collaborators and support
Collaborators and Support
  • PIs: Brian Helmuth, Sarah Woodin, Jerry Hilbish, Venkat Lakshmi
  • Post docs: Sarah Gilman, Fernando Lima, Nova Mieszkowska,

Srinivas Chintalapati, Sylvain Pincebourde

  • Students: Sarah Berke, Pam Brannock, Sierra Jones, Karlie Jones,

Jennifer Jost, Christel Lopez, Kim Schneider, Allison Smith,

Lauren Szathmary, Lauren Yamane

slide18

Classification and Regression Tree Analysis of Barnacle Biogeography and SSTDemographic population model of geographic limitsUS East Coast Europe

2007

1850

2007

1900

Maine

Cape Cod

C Hatteras

Eng Chan

Biarritz

N Portugal

Gibraltar

Semibalanus reproductive failure if winter temperature >10-12C (Crisp & Patel 1969, Barnes 1963)