NAME: STATUS AND PLANS 4th NAME Science Working Group Meeting January 9-10, 2003 NAME Homepage: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name
OUTLINE • OVERVIEW • What is NAME? • Balance of Activities (CLIVAR; GEWEX) • Timeline • STATUS AND ISSUES • NAME Project Structure • NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies • NAME Field Campaign
WHAT IS NAME? NAME is an internationally coordinated, joint CLIVAR – GEWEX process study aimed at determining the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation over North America.
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME) HYPOTHESIS The NAMS provides a physical basis for determining the degree of predictability of warm season precipitation over the region. Topographic and Sea-Land Influence • OBJECTIVES: • Better understanding and • simulation of: • warm season convective • processes in complex terrain • (TIER I); • intraseasonal variability of • the monsoon (TIER II); • response of warm season • circulation and precipitation • to slowly varying boundary • conditions (SST, soil • moisture) (TIER III); • monsoon evolution and • variability (TIER I, II, III). Intraseasonal Variability Boundary Forcing? YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Planning --------------| Preparations --------------| Data Collection - - - ----------------| Principal Research ----------------------------------| Data Management -----------------------------------------|
NAME IMPLEMENTATION • Empirical and modeling studies that carry forward the joint PACS/GAPPWarm Season Precipitation Initiative (2000 onward), and initiate new elements. • NAME Field Campaign (JJAS 2004) including build-up, field, analysis and modeling phases.
NAME STATUS • March 2000: NAME is endorsed by the WCRP/CLIVAR Variability of the American Monsoons (VAMOS) Panel as the North American Implementation of VAMOS. • June 2001: The US CLIVAR Pan American Panel formally recommended that US CLIVAR join with US GEWEX/GAPP and VAMOS to implement NAME as a warm season process study of the North American Monsoon. • May 2002: NAME is included in the GEWEX/GAPP Science and Implementation plan, with emphasis on topographic influences on precipitation, hydrology and water resources, and land-surface memory processes. • July 2002: NAME is presented to the US CLIVAR SSC, which unanimously endorsed NAME as a US CLIVAR activity and a Process Study under the PanAm Panel.
NAME RESPONSE TO SSC9 CONCERNS • Land Surface Processes: • Soil Moisture Field Campaign (NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program) • NAME Hydrometeorology Working Group (quarterly newsletter) • Modeling: • NAME modeling-observations team • NAMAP • NAME 2004 Field Campaign: • Tier 1 Observations Event logging gauge network (phases 1 and 2 installed) NSF Overview Document (windprofiler/radar/sounding network) submitted • Ocean Processes NOAA Research Vessel Ron Brown / UNAM (PUMA) 2 Buoys in Central GOC • NAME Roadshow • Other Monsoons: • NAME-CEOP linkage • NAME-MESA linkage
NAME MEETINGS NAME SWG-1 Meeting, IRI, Palisades NY (Oct. 2000) NAME SWG-2 Meeting, SIO, La Jolla, CA (Oct. 2001) NAME Workshop at VPM5, San Jose, Costa Rica (Mar. 2002) NAME SWG-3 Meeting, GMU, Fairfax, VA (Oct. 2002) NAME SWG-4 Meeting, Boulder, CO (Jan. 2003) NAME Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability Workshop, Greenbelt, MD (Mar. 2003) Ocean Component of NAME Workshop (NW Mexico, Spring 2003) NAME Tier 1 Observations
GEWEX / GAPP Components Hydrometerology Orographic Systems Predictability in Monsoonal Systems Predictability in Land Surface Processes Integration of Predictability Into Prediction Systems CEOP: Data and Studies for Model Development Testing of Models in Special Climate Regimes Use of Predictions for Water Resource Management
NAME IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITIES • ISSUE: • Significant progress has been made in developing implementation plans for NAME. However, the overall level of agency support is uncertain, and the relative roles of CLIVAR and GEWEX in NAME must be clarified. • QUESTIONS: • What are the implications of the delay in the upcoming NAME solicitation? • (e.g. March 2003 proposals and November 2003 starts)? • What are the needs of each PI in order to have sufficient time to prepare for NAME 2004? • Are we addressing CLIVAR / GEWEX scientific interests in NAME? • How do we develop a strategy for entraining NSF, NASA and DOE PI’s in • NAME?
NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE • 3-Pronged • NAME Science Working Group (Science Focus) • VAMOS / NAME Project Office (Field Implementation, Data Management, Logistics) • NAME Forecast Operations Center • NAME Program Management
NAME SCIENCE WORKING GROUP • NAME science is managed by a SWG that has been approved by the CLIVAR/VAMOS and CLIVAR Pan American panels in consultation with U.S. GEWEX. • The SWG develops and leads research to achieve NAME objectives • The NAME SWG members: Jorge Amador, Univ. of Costa Rica Rene Lobato, IMTA, Mexico Hugo Berbery, UMD Jose Meitin, NSSL Rit Carbone, NCAR Chet Ropelewski, IRI Miguel Cortez, SMN Jae Schemm, CPC Art Douglas, Creighton Univ. Siegfried Schubert, NASA Michael Douglas, NSSL Jim Shuttleworth, UAZ Dave Gutzler, UNM Dave Stensrud, NSSL Wayne Higgins, CPC (Chair) Chidong Zhang, RSMAS
NAME COORDINATION • ISSUE: • The NAME Project structure is 3-pronged (SWG, NAME Project Office, Agencies). Interactions between each component of NAME must be improved. Linkages to operational meteorology in the U.S. and Mexico, and to the broader community need to be identified and developed. • QUESTIONS: • Is the SWG engaging the NAME Project Office and vice-versa? • What does the SWG want the Forecast Operations Center to do during NAME • 2004 and beyond? • ACTIONS: • Draft NAME 2004 Timeline; • Draft NAME Data Management Plan;
NAME AND MEXICO’S PARTICIPATION • ISSUE: • NAME would like to encourage Mexican participation beyond that during • SWAMP-90 and SWAMP/EMVER-93. • QUESTIONS: • How do we increase the circle of influence in Mexico beyond those already • involved in NAME (e.g. operational meteorologists with the Air Force, Navy, • Electricity Commission, PEMEX, and Civil Aviation)? • What can NAME do that Mexico will sustain after the field phase? • ACTIONS: • Organize team and develop strawman for NAME Roadshow
NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES • GOALS: • Provide guidance on needs and priorities for NAME 2004 field observations. • Identify sustained observational requirements for climate models. • Identify additional process studies necessary to reduce uncertainties in climate models.
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON ASSESSMENT PROJECT (NAMAP) STRATEGY: • NAMAP Phase I (D. Gutzler, Chair) • Document ability of models (GCM’s; RMM’s) to simulate NAMS (JJAS 1990). • Protocols (domain, boundary conditions, output format, simulated variables) defined by the modeling community during 2001. • Hosted by the NAME Project Office at UCAR/JOSS: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/namip • NAMAP is currently unfunded and voluntary. Current Participants: • Liang (MM5, WRF) Schemm (NCEP MRF) • Mo (RSM) Schubert (NASA NSIPP) • Mitchell / Yang (ETA) Liz Ritchie / Dave Gutzler (MM5) • Kanamitsu (ECPC/RSM) Peter Fawcett • Fox Rabinovitz (NASA Hybrid) • Hahmann (MM5) • Castro / Pielke (RAMS) • Results are in progress.
NAME MODELING-OBS WORKSHOP • GOAL: • Refine specific research objectives and plans / priorities of the team. • QUESTIONS: • PROGRAMMATIC: • How can the teams best contribute to NAME 2004 planning efforts? • How can the team leverage off of existing modeling, data assimilation and predictability activities? • SCIENTIFIC: • What are the land processes that should guide the modeling approach? • How sensitive is lateral forcing of the North American monsoon by the Eastern Pacific ITCZ? • How will cloud resolving models help with the large-scale environment that is critical for promoting convection?
NAME MODELING-OBS TEAM<emphasis> • Develop the research strategy consistent with NAME Objectives<diurnal cycle of convection in complex coastal terrain> • Define how the team will complement on-going modeling • regional mesoscale models<explicit convection, mesoscale observations of surges, etc.> • global models<mean diurnal cycle> • Contribute to NAME needs for weather/climate prediction<parameterization of convection, cloud-radiation interaction, effects of terrain>
Regional Analysis and Data Impact and Prediction Experiments in support of NAME • OBJECTIVES: • To provide real time monitoring of NA regional climate with a focus on the hydrologic cycle during and after the NAME field campaign • Technology transfer of RR and RCDAS to CPC/NCEP • 2) To perform global and regional data assimilation with/without NAME data • Global:CDAS II with and without NAME Data • Regional: RCDAS with and without the NAME data • To perform forecast experiments highlighting NAME data impact • Global:NCEP GFS out to day 45 from CDAS II with / without NAME Data • Regional: Short range forecasts (SREF) with / without the NAME data • GOALS: To improve precipitation forecasts at diurnal/daily time scales (e.g. QPF); to improve climate forecasts of droughts / floods. Kingtse Mo (CPC), Wayne Higgins (CPC), Fedor Mesinger (UCAR/EMC), Hugo Berbery (UMD) and Ken Mitchell (EMC)
IMPROVING THE NCEP-NAME LINKAGE • Linkage to operational meteorology / NCEP Centers • Involve operational (NWS) meteorologists (NAME SWG; NAME FO); • NAME-related exchange visits between NWS and SMN; • Postdocs from Mexican SMN at NCEP during NAME 2004, to work with HPC forecasters and EMC data assimilation experts; • Involve EMC personnel (e.g. physical parameterization experts) in NAME Modeling-Obs Teams (specific needs in GFS, ETA). • (2) Quantifyable Goals • Develop year-by-year performance metrics that are directly relevant to NCEP Centers (HPC, CPC). • Need for different types of metrics • NAME 2004 Field Experiment • NAME Modeling - Improved warm season precipitation prediction • - Short term goal: diurnal/daily timescales (e.g. QPF) • - Long term goal: monthly/seasonal time scales (e.g. RPSS)
SUMMARY OF NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES blue: funded before SWG-3;red: funded since SWG-3
NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN Enhanced Precipitation Gauge Network R.V. Ron Brown Radiosondes/PIBALS Radar/Profiling/Radiosondes
NAME Field Campaign Observations • Need repeat of previous table, but with estimated costs and priority (from SWG) for Mike
NAME Tier-1 Objectives • How are low-level circulations along the Gulf of California / west slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental related to the diurnal cycle of moisture and convection? (low-level circulation) • What is the relationship between moisture transport and rainfall variability (e.g. forcing of surge events; onset of monsoon details)? (moisture transport) • What is the typical life cycle of diurnal convective rainfall? Where along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental is convective development preferred? (diurnal cycle) • What are the dominant sources of precipitable moisture for monsoon precipitation over southwestern North America? (moisture sources) • What are the fluxes of energy and water from the land surface to the atmosphere across the core monsoon region, and how do these fluxes evolve in time during the warm season? (land surface)
PIBAL SUPPLEMENT AND REASONS Douglas et al. (2003) Precise configuration depends on wind profiler / radar / sounding network that the PIBALS will support.
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING NETWORK In Operation After 2003 • Maintenance of the upper-air sounding network (2002) • Operate twice-daily observations (May-Nov) in 8 sites (2002) • Operate all once-daily observation sites at 12 UTC (2002) • Observers training (2002)
Proposed Location of the R/V Ron Brown During NAME IOP • Addressing NAME Tier-1 Science • Surge origins • Sources of moisture and transports • Precipitation statistics including diurnal cycle • Structure of southern end of GC LLJ • Surge coupling to easterly waves • Surface fluxes/Ocean coupling Figures adapted from Fuller and Stensrud (MWR, 2000) and Brenner (MWR, 1974)
Potential NAME ALDF network geometry 300 km • 5-station Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network • TOA/DF technique, = Potential ALDF site = Current NALDN site
REQUEST FOR THE NOAA P-3 (M. Douglas, PI) Objective: To measure moisture influx into the NAME tier 1, esp from southern GOC. Technique: Repeatable tracks to provide comparisons with in-situ data [ship and ground-based], model-based analyses and climatology. Frequent profiles (every ~5-6 minutes) between ~100m ASL and 1.5-2 km ASL [50-60 soundings per flight]. Unprecedented spatial resolution across the inflow region at low levels. Number of flights: ~10 flights / ~7.5h per flight. Flights need not be flown in sequence. Same time each day to avoid complications due to diurnal cycle. List of flights: 2 enhanced flux flights, 2 suppresed flux flights, 6 "normal" flux flights, 2 Gulf section flights
PHASE 2 Enhancements ‘03 PH 1 Event Raingage Isotope Collector PH 2 Event Raingage SMN Automatic Met Station Proposed Radar Site
NAME Simple Raingauge Network • The network is sparse in large portions of the core and peripheral monsoon regions • NAME will install ~1600 gauges in these regions as a cooperative network to improve monitoring, prediction and assessments.