Impact of Climate Change on Conflicts Andrew Hartley andrew.hartley@maplecroft November 2008

1. Impact of Climate Change on Conflicts Andrew Hartley andrew.hartley@maplecroft.com November 2008

2. Summary • Why is climate change an issue in conflict? • What could be the causal linkages of climate change related conflicts? • Increasing water scarcity • Climate induced decline in food production • Displacement caused by increasing intensity of natural disasters • Environmentally induced migration • What role for GIS Analysis in Climate change related conflict? • What should be the future focus of the humanitarian community?

3. Why is Climate Change an issue in Conflicts? • Environmental change in politically unstable regions has the potential to either trigger conflict or exacerbate ongoing disputes • Africa is most likely to be affected because ... • Generally lower capacity to adapt • High population densities especially in areas of high poverty • Unsustainable land use patterns • High number of existing tribal disputes • Margaret Beckett, former British Foreign Secretary, 2007: “global climate change gives us a new and potentially disastrous dynamic... I believe that it requires a whole new approach to how we analyse and act on security.”

4. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict • 3 mechanisms for eruption of violence in the context of environmental change: • Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources • Climate induced decline in food production • Climate induced increase in storm and flood disasters • Indirect consequence • Environmentally induced migration • The presence of one or more of these mechanisms will not inevitably lead to conflict

5. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources • Greater variability in many regions, salinisation caused by sea level rise • Increasing demand: population growth, migration, rising consumption • Competition can arise between: • social groups (e.g. defence of traditional rights to water use) • economic sectors (e.g. diversion of water from farms to urban areas) • administrative units or countries (e.g. upstream diversion/pollution) • Risk of conflict believed to be greater at the intrastate or local level than at the interstate level

6. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources Global distribution of water stress – defined as withdrawal of more than 40 percent of renewable water resources. Source data: World Water Assessment Programme. NASA Earth Observatory

7. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Climate induced decline in food production • Impact on cereal harvests in marginal agricultural zones • Price increases on the global market could have significant repercussions in low income countries • In a food crisis violence could be caused by: • Food shortages and price hikes (particularly in urban areas) • Migration and increased resource pressure • Inequitable distribution of wealth could lead mean the majority of the population while a few have access to food • However, most famine victims migrate to escape the famine so violence plays a lesser role

8. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Climate induced decline in food production Humanitarian risk hotspots for drought and conflict. The base map shows an index of conflict risk. The striped areas of the map represent areas where drought risk hotspots coincide with high and extreme conflict risk. These areas are interpreted to be at relatively higher risk of climate-risk conflict.

9. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Climate induced increase in storm and flood disasters • Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts • Disasters often heighten dissatisfaction with the ruling authorities (e.g. blame for the high vulnerability of the population or lack of early warning systems) • The temporary breakdown of state functions can lead to a power vacuum, which can be exploited by anti-government actors • However, disasters can also provide opportunities for conflict resolution (e.g. Aceh rebels/Indonesia after the tsunami, India/Pakistan after the earthquake)

10. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Climate related storm, flood and drought disasters Map showing cumulative humanitarian risk hotspots for three climate-related hazards – floods, cyclones and drought. Areas at risk for more than one type of hazard are considered to be of most concern for humanitarian actors.

11. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Environmentally induced migration • Migration solely because of environmental factors is rare, it is usually because of a combination of social, political and economic factors • However, there is little evidence from the past that large migration movements have been the cause • The likely scenario of migration-induced conflict is when there is competition with the residential population for scarce resources, or it changes the ‘ethnic balance’ of a country • Conflict is more likely if there is a history of recent conflict in the host country

12. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Environmentally induced migration Map showing hotspots of humanitarian risk for floods, cyclones and drought (combined) overlaying a population density gradient. Blue areas with striped overlay represent areas of high population density that are also risk hotspots. These areas could be interpreted to be possible locations of future population displacement as a result of climate hazards.

13. Causal linkages between climate change and conflict Environmentally induced migration Map showing hotspots of humanitarian risk for floods, cyclones and drought (combined) overlaying a population density change gradient. Blue areas with striped overlay represent areas of predicted population density increases that are also risk hotspots. These areas could present increased humanitarian risks in the future as more people become exposed to climate hazards.

14. Climate change related conflict and GIS analysis What can GIS analysis add? • Locate vulnerable populations at a global scale • Improve the understanding of exposure to multiple natural and man-made risks • Can assist disaster preparedness efforts at global, continental, regional and national scales. • Integrate with economic models to identify areas of food insecurity • But, it cannot predict future climate-related conflicts

15. Climate change related conflict and GIS analysis Conflict Intensity and terrorism Cyclone Activity and Risk Flooding Risk Human Population Density Source: WWF, ProAct Network and Maplecroft, 2008

16. Climate change related conflict and GIS analysis Conflict in the Congo Basin Ecoregion

17. Climate change related conflict and GIS analysis Population Density in the Congo Basin Ecoregion

18. Climate change related conflict and GIS analysis Access to Protected Areas in the Congo Basin Ecoregion

19. Climate change related conflict and GIS analysis A theoretical model ... ... and a GIS analysis model. Modified from Homer-Dixon, 1999. Source: Bocchi et al, 2006. Environmental security: A GIS Approach – The case of Kenya

20. Climate change related conflict and GIS analysis Kenya Source: Bocchi et al, 2006. Environmental security: A GIS Approach – The case of Kenya

21. What should be the future focus of the humanitarian community? Reducing human vulnerability by enhancing ability of high risk populations to adapt to climate changes Clearly identify populations vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change Understand where demand and supply-induced resource scarcity exists Identify existing conflict areas which may be exacerbated by these stresses

22. Thank you... For more information please visit www.global-risks.com ... Or contact me directly Andrew Hartley andrew.hartley@maplecroft.com