Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability

1. Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability • Historical climatological data indicates warming in upper snow covered parts of the Indus basin and some increase in rainfall in flood generating areas, whereas decrease in rainfall, rise in maximum temperature and decrease in minimum temperature is observed during 1968-97 from that of 1937-67 in arid areas • The analysis of both the Rabi and Kharif seasons indicated a 6.4% reduction in river flows during 1968-97 from that of 1937-67

2. Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability • A reduction of 6.7% in base flow of Indus basin is estimated in 2020 at 0.3% decadal increase in temperature and 1% decrease in decadal precipitation • 2 % increase in reference crop ET is estimated by 2020 resulting in increased irrigation requirements of crops • IPCC 2001 predicts 27 % reduction in the Indus basin inflows by the year 2050

3. Production • Less growing season length • High crop water requirement • Low water availability (site 1) • Change in rainfall pattern, so may effect current cropping system • Shift from high delta crops to low delta crops (Site 1) • Frequency of extreme events Droughts/Floods • With increase in relative humidity in rice intensive areas greater incidence of plant pests/ disease • Land degradation due to drought and flooding, bank cutting, sand casting • Loss in production due to rainfall at harvesting time

4. Access • High cost of production due to high cost of irrigation due to low surface water availability • Change in selling pattern • Decrease in profitability  Incidence of Poverty • Decrease in competitiveness • Increased use of chemicals leading to high cost of production and prices of food • Bigger gap in gender aspect

5. Adaptive Capacity of outcomes to GEC changes: The Case of 1, 2,3 Sites

6. Production • Social: • Crop pattern can be diversified requiring less water (Ludhiana) • Conjunctive use of surface water with groundwater (Ludhiana, Gujarat) • Diversification in the income activities like shifting to dairy and poultry (Ludhiana, Gujarat) • Shifting to water saving techniques • Developing/adopting those cultivars of rice, which have short duration

7. Production • Shift in public investment priorities (Government support in research and development) towards dis-advanteagous areas/crops/enterprises • Emphasis on water use efficiency measures • Technology emphasis on water use efficiency • -zero till in wheat, raised bed in wheat, bund and furrow cultivation of rice • -Irrigation methods • -Rain water harvesting • Early warning systems

8. Access Migration Credit Community support Efficient storage Through diversification of enterprises

9. Utilization • Promoting local food habits • Changing food basket

10. Coping Strategies • Reducing conveyance losses by improving water distribution network • Managing water shortage by demand management, adjusting cropping pattern with water availability and cultivation of drought resistant crop varieties • Improving water productivity through improved field layout, efficient irrigation techniques and optimized irrigation • Reducing vulnerability to water related disasters - droughts and floods.

11. Coping Strategies • Early waning system/ Weather Information sharing system • Water saving techniques • Heat resistant /shot duration verities