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Case Study: Ivan - September 2004. Jared Klein – SUNY-Albany. 300 hPa Analyses : 1200 UTC 16 September 2004. Precipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s −1 ), and div (10 −5 s −1 ). 300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km) − 1 (3 h) − 1 ], θ (K), and wind barbs (kt). 1.0° GFS.

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slide1
Case Study:

Ivan - September 2004

Jared Klein – SUNY-Albany

300 hpa analyses 1200 utc 16 september 2004
300 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 16 September 2004

Precipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s−1), and div (10−5 s−1)

300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1],θ(K), and wind barbs (kt)

1.0° GFS

300 hpa analyses 1200 utc 17 september 2004
300 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 17 September 2004

Frontogenesis in jet-entrance region

Confluent flow in equatorward jet-entrance region

Precipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s−1), and div (10−5 s−1)

300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1],θ(K), and wind barbs (kt)

1.0° GFS

300 hpa analyses 1200 utc 18 september 2004
300 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 18 September 2004

Strengthening downstream ULJ and ridge

Strong frontogenesis in jet-entrance region

Precipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s−1), and div (10−5 s−1)

300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1],θ(K), and wind barbs (kt)

1.0° GFS

925 hpa analyses 1200 utc 16 september 2004
925 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 16 September 2004

Pre-existing baroclinic zone

Symmetric reflectivity structure

WSI radar, 925 hPa θe (K) and wind barbs (kt)

925 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1],θ(K), and wind barbs (kt)

1.0° GFS

925 hpa analyses 1200 utc 17 september 2004
925 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 17 September 2004

Northeastward extension of precip field along baroclinic zone

Band of frontogenesis along baroclinic zone

WSI radar, 925 hPa θe (K) and wind barbs (kt)

925 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1],θ(K), and wind barbs (kt)

1.0° GFS

925 hpa analyses 1200 utc 18 september 2004
925 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 18 September 2004

Highest reflectivity near nose of LLJ/θe ridge axis

Strong frontogenesis along warm frontal zone

WSI radar, 925 hPa θe (K) and wind barbs (kt)

925 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1],θ(K), and wind barbs (kt)

1.0° GFS

925 hpa q vector diagnosis 0000 utc 18 september 2004
925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 0000 UTC 18 September 2004

Q

Qn

Qn div–con bands within frontal zone

Qs

Radar at 1200 UTC 17 September 2004

Radar at 0000 UTC 18 September 2004

Radar at 0000 UTC 18 September 2004

Highest reflectivity near strongest QG forcing for ascent

WSI radar

Qs div–con couplet within thermal trough–ridge

1.0° GFS

Q vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 2.5 × 10−11), θ(K) contoured in green, and

Q div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors

925 hpa q vector diagnosis 0600 utc 18 september 2004
925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 0600 UTC 18 September 2004

Q

Qn

Qs

Radar at 1200 UTC 17 September 2004

Radar at 0000 UTC 18 September 2004

Radar at 0600 UTC 18 September 2004

Highest reflectivity near strongest QG forcing for ascent

WSI radar

1.0° GFS

Q vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 2.5 × 10−11), θ(K) contoured in green, and

Q div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors

925 hpa q vector diagnosis 1200 utc 18 september 2004
925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 1200 UTC 18 September 2004

Q

Qn

Qs

Radar at 1200 UTC 17 September 2004

Radar at 0000 UTC 18 September 2004

Radar at 1200 UTC 18 September 2004

Highest reflectivity near strongest QG forcing for ascent

WSI radar

1.0° GFS

Q vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 2.5 × 10−11), θ(K) contoured in green, and

Q div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors

cross section of f n magnitude 0000 utc 18 september 2004
Cross Section of Fn Magnitude: 0000 UTC 18 September 2004

Deep frontogenesis tilting toward cold air w/height

925–500 hPa layer-avg

Fn vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1),

θ (K) contoured in green, and Fn div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors

Fn magnitude [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1] shaded in green–blue, RH shaded in orange, θ(K) contoured in gray, wind barbs (ms−1), and ω<0 (µb s−1) contoured in red

1.0° GFS

cross section of f n magnitude 1200 utc 18 september 2004
Cross Section of Fn Magnitude: 1200 UTC 18 September 2004

Deep frontogenesis tilting toward cold air w/height

925–500 hPa layer-avg

Fn vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1),

θ (K) contoured in green, and Fn div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors

Fn magnitude [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1] shaded in green–blue, RH shaded in orange, θ(K) contoured in gray, wind barbs (ms−1), and ω<0 (µb s−1) contoured in red

1.0° GFS

slide13

NPVU QPE

0000 UTC 18 September 2004

Heaviest 6-h precip along and on cold side of surface boundary

6-h precipitation (in) ending at

0600 UTC 18 September 2004

Flow of tropical air into surface boundary

Fn vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 1.0 × 10−10), θ(K) contoured in green, streamlines contoured in black, and Fn div–con (10−14 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors

0600 UTC 18 September 2004

~0.6° surface data

slide14

NPVU QPE

0600 UTC 18 September 2004

Heaviest 6-h precip along and on cold side of surface boundary

6-h precipitation (in) ending at

1200 UTC 18 September 2004

Flow of tropical air into surface boundary

Fn vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 1.0 × 10−10), θ(K) contoured in green, streamlines contoured in black, and Fn div–con (10−14 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors

1200 UTC 18 September 2004

~0.6° surface data