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Basic Guide to Travel Demand Modeling What’s in the Black Box? Beimborn, Edward A. 1995. A Transportation Modeling Primer. Center for UrbanTransportation Studies, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee: /CUTS/primer.htm (last accessed 11/14/04). Travel Demand Modeling

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what s in the black box

What’s in the Black Box?

Beimborn, Edward A. 1995. A Transportation Modeling Primer.Center for UrbanTransportation Studies, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee: (last accessed 11/14/04).

travel demand modeling
Travel Demand Modeling
  • First developed in the late 1950s
  • Helps make decision on future development of (urban) transport systems
  • Forecasts travel patterns 15-25 years ahead
  • An understanding of the modeling process and assumptions is essential to understanding transportation plans.
development of model input
Development of Model Input

What will our community look like in the future?

  • How many people? (population forecasts)
  • What will they do? (economic forecasts)
  • Where will they do it? (land use pattern)
model area
Model Area
  • Includes OKI and Dayton (MVRPC) Regions
  • 1,608 zones in OKI Region
  • 817 zones in Dayton Region
  • 63 external stations in OKI Region
  • 43 external stations in Dayton Region
input transportation network
Input – Transportation Network
  • What changes to the transportation system do we want to evaluate?
    • No change, existing system plus committed projects (E+C)
    • E+C plus future alternatives
representation of transportation network
Representation of Transportation Network
  • Network consists of links and nodes
  • Includes current bus system; future year networks may include expansion to transit system
  • # of lanes, capacity and speed by link
  • Transit links for fixed route service; stops,park-n-rides, headway, vehicle size

McCabe, Frank. Modelling Transport: Theory and Practice. Dublin Transportation Office: (last accessed 11/14/04).

structure of a 4 step model
Structure of a 4-step Model

What are the travel patterns in the future?

  • How many trips? (trip generation)
  • Where will the trips go? (trip distribution)
  • What modes will they use? (mode split)
  • What routes will they take? (traffic assignment)
post model
Post Model
  • What will be the effects of this travel? (Impact Analysis)
    • Future volumes
    • VMT, vehicle hours of travel
    • Level-of-service
    • Transit ridership
    • Air pollution
    • Cost benefit analysis
  • Models are calibrated to base year conditions.
  • Current OKI model base year is 2000. Model output is compared to over 3000 traffic counts.
  • The difference between total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and observed VMT is less than 1%.
model limitations
Model Limitations
  • Only considers factors and alternatives explicitly included in the equations.
    • Intersection delay not directly considered.
    • No bike or pedestrians (walking available as mode choice in some large CBD’s).
    • Not sensitive to access management improvements.
future model advancements
Future Model Advancements
  • Tour-based model
    • Assembles multiple trip legs into tours
    • Needs lots of household trip data and several large computers.
  • Traffic micro-simulation
    • Refine model output to analyze intersection and access improvements.
    • 2d and 3d
    • OKI is developing this capability.
contact information
Contact Information

Andrew J. Reser, AICP

OKI Regional Council of Governments

513-621-6300 x146