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Met nps

Smart Climatology: Concepts and Products

Tom Murphree, Ph.D.

Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

murphree@nps.edu

Brief Presented to CAPT David Titley, USN

NPS, 15 June 2006

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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  • Outline

  • Definitions and Concepts

  • Climatology in Support of Military Operations

  • Requirements

  • Gaps in Climatological Support

  • Smart Climatology Products

  • Needed Smart Climatology Capabilities

  • Research and Development Issues to be Resolved

  • Reasons to Pursue Smart Climatology Support for War Fighters

  • Outline of Smart Climatology Prototype Project

  • NPS Climatology Courses

  • References

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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  • Acknowledgements

  • This module reflects numerous discussions with, and/or contributions from, many people, including:

  • Naval and Air Force officers in the NPS climatology courses

  • Dave Titley, CAPT, USN

  • David Smarsh, Col, USAF

  • Bruce Ford (LCDR, USN, retired)

  • Joel Feldmeier, LCDR, USN

  • Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF

  • Mark LaJoie, Maj, USAF

  • Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF

  • Jake Hinz, LCDR, USN

  • Jeff Jarry, Capt, USAF

  • Richard Siquig, NRL-Monterey

  • Roy Ladner, NRL-SSC

  • Brian Rivenbark, LCDR, USN

  • Staff at Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC)

  • Staff at Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

  • Results from several other people are also included and cited in this brief.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Statement of Problem

  • Warfighters are not getting the full benefit of proven operational

  • climatological data and methods because:

  • 1. DoD climatology is behind the times.

  • 2. Long term mean climatology is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations.

  • 3. Information is often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest.

  • 4. A lot of very relevant climo information, methods, and products are not yet readily available to METOC personnel or their customers.

    • a. not yet adapted for military use

    • b. no central, easily accessible source

  • 5. It is difficult to translate climo information into environmental impacts on operations, and such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products.

  • 6. METOC units must interpret available climo information to fit their individual needs.

    • a. too time consuming and labor intensive

    • b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and

    • effective if done by experts at a central location

    • c. units’ time is better spent tailoring smart climo to the needs

    • of combatant commanders

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Definitions

Climate

The expected state of the environment based on scientific observations,

analyses, theories, and models. The expected state is based on both

long term observations and theoretical concepts about the behavior of

the climate system. The expected state accounts for long term means

and variations from these means that occur over long periods (e.g.,

anomalous trends and oscillations that occur over weeks, years, or

longer). The climate of a location is generally determined by

synthesizing information collected over a long period of time, for

example, synthesizing weather observations made over many years at a

station.

Climatology

The scientific study of climate and the application of climate information

and methods to solve practical problems. There are many types of

climate studies and resulting products, including: statistical and

dynamical analyses, modeling, and forecasts of the components of the

climate system and the climate system as a whole.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Definitions

Traditional Climatology

Climatology that focuses on long term means, especially the description

of long term mean (LTM) seasonal cycles. Traditional climatology deals

little, or not at all, with variations from the long term.

Modern Climatology

Climatology that addresses LTM patterns and climate variation patterns,

with a focus on describing both the patterns and the processes that

drive those patterns. The study of climate processes includes the

development and application of methods for monitoring, modeling, and

forecasting the climate system. Examples of climate variations: El Nino

La Nina-Southern Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, North Atlantic

Oscillation.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Traditional Climatology Versus Modern Climatology

The reliance on LTMs to describe the climate system means that

traditional climatology is unable to account for climate variations that

can significantly alter the state of the climate system and impact

deployment planning and combat operations (e.g., weapons selection,

force positioning, and operational planning).

The focus on patterns rather than processes means that traditional

climatology contributes relatively little to the dynamical understanding

of LTM patterns, or to the analysis and forecasting of climate variations.

Thus modern climatology provides a more comprehensive view of the

climate system and is much better suited than traditional climatology for

supporting combatant commanders.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Climatology in Support of Combatant Commanders

Problem

DoD climatology products are based almost exclusively on traditional

climatology. This means combatant commanders have far fewer useful

climo products than are available in the civilian sector or that could be

readily adapted for DoD use.

Approach to Solving Problem

Adapt and apply modern, or smart, climo methods and products for use

by combatant commanders (e.g., adapt and apply climate analysis and

forecasting methods and products used in civilian sector).

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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What is Smart Climatology?

The term smart climatology seems to be used by a relatively small number of

people in the Naval METOC community. Most people working in military

and civilian climatology do not seem to know or use the term. In addition, there

seem to be at least two definitions of the term.

Two Definitions of Smart Climatology

1. Climatology applied to military planning that is based on long term means (LTMs) but with higher space / time resolutions than are available in most military climo products (e.g., to better capture climo of the littoral region).

2. Climatologyapplied to military planningthat includes LTMs but also accounts for:

a. higher order statistics than the LTM

b. modern developments in research and operational climatology

(e.g., accounts for on-going and forecasted climate variations)

Definition 2 explicitly accounts for recent advances in climatology, such as analysis of climate variations and on-going evolution of the climate system, reanalysis, downscaling, climate forecasting, etc. These methods include state of the art methods for developing high resolution climo products. Thus definition 2 encompasses definition 1, and is used from here on in this document.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Smart Climatology = Modern Climatology

Smart Climatology

Climatology that includes LTMs but also accounts for:

a. higher order statistics than the LTM

b. modern developments in climate science and operational

climatology

By this definition, smart climatology could also be called modern climatology.

Modern climatology is an apt term, since DoD climatology is way behind the times.

Civilian climatology is far more advanced than military climatology, in terms of:

1. climate science

2. development and application of operational climatology methods

and products

This lag in DoD climatology has created significant gaps in climatological support for war fighters.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Climatology in Support of Strategic, Operational,

and Tactical Operations

Climatology is a fundamental component of METOC support for war

fighters. It is of course a crucial part of strategic and operational

planning occurring at lead times of weeks or longer.

But climatology is also used in shorter range tactical planning. For

example, climatology provides initial states for many of the model based

TDAs heavily used on a day-to-day basis aboard CSG and ESG units.

So, as climatology is improved, so too are the products provided to

operational commanders at all levels of planning and execution.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Climatology in Support of Strategic, Operational,

and Tactical Operations

Examples of how climatology is used in tactical level forecasting,

planning, and execution:

1. Short range models: Climatology is often used to develop model ICs, BCs, surface fluxes, and/or parameterizations.

2. Short range model selection: The selection of a preferred short range model for a particular forecast situation is often based on analyses of model climatologies and comparisons of them to observed climatologies.

3. Forecaster guides: Most of the major concepts, reasoning, and rules of thumb for forecasting short range conditions are based on at least informal climatology.

4. Short range forecasts: Climo is explicitly used in many short range forecasts to reduce uncertainty in forecasts and manage customer risks (e.g., observational and model climo used to select most probable members from an ensemble; observed climo used to plan diverts, AR points).

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Climatology in Support of Strategic, Operational, and

Tactical Operations

In addition, climatology can help forecasters and their customers avoid many short range negative environmental conditions (e.g., adverse winds, currents, acoustic characteristics).

Many of the short range issues that military forecasters face are the direct result of the climate-based planning done, or not done, by their customers. If accurate and operationally relevant climate support is provided and used by customers, forecasters and their customers are less likely to face short range environmental challenges.

Example: Accurate wind, wave, and dust climatologies, if available and appropriately used, help CSGs and ESGs avoid bad short range weather in the first place (cf. Ford and Murphree 2006).

Conclusion: Smart climatology can improve operational planning and effectiveness by improving environmental analysis and forecasting at all time and space scales.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Requirements for Smart Climatology

There are many existing requirements for METOC support. Climatology is an essential part of providing that support, even support of short range tactical operations.

Smart climatology is simply modern, state of the art climatology.

Thus, the requirements for smart climatology already exist. No new requirements need to be created.

Instead, we simply need to recognize that there is a huge gap between (a) present climo support for military operations and (b) the support that is readily achievable through the application of existing, proven concepts, data sets, and methods that are widely used in civilian operational climatology.

Once we accept that this gap exists --- that we have not kept up with the times in terms of basic and applied atmospheric and oceanic climatology --- we then need to devote the resources to fill the gap.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example

Present Level of METOC Effort in Support of ASW Planning and Execution

In ASW, relatively little effort is presently devoted to METOC support at leads of 1 week to 2 months (i.e., intraseasonal climo support). This dip in METOC support occurs as ASW commanders are making operational plans and major decisions about resource assignments, deployment load-outs, and training. This is when massive amounts of budget dollars are allocated. Thus, improving intraseasonalclimo support could lead to significant improvements in ASW operations.

Level of Effort

COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program

TAS

TOS

Mission execution briefs

OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Years

Months

Weeks

Days

Hours

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

From ASW Coordination/CONOPS Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW


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Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example

Level of METOC Effort Versus Level of Potential Impact on Operations

Operational PlanningTeam

Engagement

MissionPlanning Cell Engagement

OPLAN/CONPLAN Development

EnvironmentalReconnaissance

EnvironmentalReconstruction and Analysis

Level of Impact

Level of Effort

COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program

TAS

TOS

Mission execution briefs

OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Years

Months

Weeks

Days

Hours

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW


Met nps

Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example

Conclusion: Devoting more effort to intraseasonal climatology has the potential to significantly improve operational effectiveness.

Operational PlanningTeam

Engagement

MissionPlanning Cell Engagement

OPLAN/CONPLAN Development

EnvironmentalReconnaissance

EnvironmentalReconstruction and Analysis

Level of Impact

Level of Effort

COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program

TAS

TOS

Mission execution briefs

OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Years

Months

Weeks

Days

Hours

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW


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Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example

Funds for intraseasonal climo support may need to come from other types of support (e.g., short range support that may come too late to be as effectively used by combatant commanders as intraseasonal climo support). In this case, the pointy end of the spear may be better sharpened well ahead of time, rather than right before the battle begins.

Level of Impact

Level of Effort

Trade Space

Opportunity

COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

TAS

TOS

Mission execution briefs

OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies

Years

Months

Weeks

Days

Hours

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW


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Shortcomings of Present DoD Climatological Support

  • Warfighters are not getting the full benefit of proven operational

  • climatological data and methods because:

  • 1. DoD climatology is behind the times.

  • 2. Long term mean climatology is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations.

  • 3. Information is often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest.

  • 4. A lot of very relevant climo information, methods, and products are not yet readily available to METOC personnel or their customers.

    • a. not yet adapted for military use

    • b. no central, easily accessible source

  • 5. It is difficult to translate climo information into environmental impacts on operations, and such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products.

  • 6. METOC units must interpret available climo information to fit their individual needs.

    • a. too time consuming and labor intensive

    • b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and

    • effective if done by experts at a central location

    • c. units’ time is better spent tailoring smart climo to the needs

    • of combatant commanders

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Needed Smart Climatology Capabilities

  • 1. Need environmental data from multiple sources that are physically consistent and up-to-date (e.g., latest observations and forecasts available for inclusion in climo products).

  • 2. Need higher spatial and temporal resolution. Most climo products, especially ocean products, have poor or marginal resolutions.

  • 3. Need a web based, readily accessible, interactive system for analyzing, displaying, and down loading climo information for the global environment. System needs extensive user functions (e.g., analysis functions for compositing, differencing, correlating; display functions for generating time series, layering data, GIS output).

  • 4. Need to be able to readily account for climate variations and climate forecasts (e.g., El Nino / La Nina, North Atlantic Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, etc.). Presently, almost all DoD climo support is based on just LTMs.

  • Need to feed smart climo to models that currently use only traditional climatology (e.g., LTMs as initial or expected extreme conditions).

  • Need system for objectively assessing climatological risks and opportunities for war fighters.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Smart Climatology Products

  • The following slides show examples of the types of products that

  • are being, and could be, generated using smart climatology

  • methods.

  • These examples include:

  • Scientific products for METOC personnel to use in developing operational climo products

  • Operational planning products based on the scientific products

  • These sample products were developed by:

  • NPS students as part of the NPS climatology courses

  • NPS students as part of their thesis research

  • NPS faculty

  • NRL personnel

  • DoD needs to develop such products, and to do so with the breadth

  • and depth of coverage appropriate for combatant commander needs

  • (e.g., develop products to support Naval ASW and MIW operations in

  • key regions of the world).

  • Contact me for examples of classified smart climatology products that

  • we have developed at NPS.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Impacts of Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Activity:

East Asia and Western North Pacific, October

H

L

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

L

H

L

H

H

L

Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shownthat TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected

by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree.


Met nps

Impacts of Climate Variations on Afloat Operations:

SE Asia, September

WW3 Significant Wave Heights. Resolution: 1 deg spatial, 3 hr temporal.

Original figures provided by James Dykes, NRL-SSC.

Long Term Mean (1993-2002)

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Anomaly 1997 (El Nino)

Anomaly 1999 (La Nina)


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Impacts of Climate Variations on Joint Operations:

Straits of Taiwan, October

Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission

Yellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission

*Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Slide from NPS climatology course


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Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:

Western North Pacific, Winter

Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean

15 cm/s

Note LTM poleward coastal currents along China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea.

From Ford and Murphree (2006)

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:

Western North Pacific, Winter

Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During -SOI Periods

6 cm/s

Note substantial strengthening with respect to LTM of coastal currents along China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea.

Note: -SOI periods  El Nino periods

From Ford and Murphree (2006)

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:

Arabian Gulf, Winter

Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean

Note LTM inflow in Arabian Gulf, Gulf Of Oman.

1 cm/s

From Ford and Murphree (2006)

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products:

Arabian Gulf, Winter

Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During +SOI Periods

Note reversal of LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman.

Note: +SOI periods  La Nino periods

3 cm/s

From Ford and Murphree (2006)

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Use of Ocean Modeling to Develop Smart Climo Products:

California Current System, Winter

Model LN Currents

Model EN Currents

Figures from: Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian.

a

b

Model LN Current Anomaly

Model EN Current Anomaly

c

d

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in

Mission Planning Process

Scenario: In the event of heightened tensions with North Korea, a squadron of F-15s from Elmendorf AFB, AK will need to deploy on short notice to Gwangju AB, ROK. Their refueling aircraft will be a pair of KC-10s from Travis AFB, CA. The expected launch window is July. The fighters will have to refuel 7 times en route and must avoid areas of solid cloud and moderate or greater turbulence.

Task: Provide climatological support for mission planning.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Slide from NPS climatology course


Climatological impacts on f 15 squadron deployment over north pacific in july

Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in

Mission Planning Process

Mean Percent Total Cloud Cover From RTNEPH, July LTM, Base Period 1984-2001. Image sources: AF Combat Climatology Center:

https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/scis/

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Climatological Impacts on F-15 Squadron Deployment Over North Pacific in July

Slide from NPS climatology course

  • Launch / Divert Bases

    • Thunderstorms, lightning, low ceilings likely at Elmendorf AFB

    • Fog/stratus along coast likely to inhibit morning tanker take-offs from Travis AFB, CA, diverts on US west coast

  • Air Refueling

    • Clouds likely to impede refueling along storm track

    • Winds much weaker at flight level, thus decreasing turbulence risk


Met nps

Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in

Mission Planning Process

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Slide from NPS climatology course

Climatological Impacts on ISR Operations Over Korean Peninsula in July

  • Key climatological factors for Korea in July (see accompanying maps of SLP, Z850, chi, OLR,

  • clouds, and precipitation):

  • Low level low over China, high over North Pacific

  • Warm moist inflow from the south along boundary between low and high

Reference for METOC Criteria : JP 3-59. Joint Doctrine, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedure for Meteorological and Oceanographic Support. 23 Mar. 1999.


Met nps

Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process

Manas IAP

Incirlik AB

Bagram AB

Herat

Kandahar

Slide from NPS climatology course

AR ‘B’

Map courtesy of the AFCCC Strategic Climatic Information Service

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

Scenario:Operation Thanksgiving Pain

Mission: Provide climo support for night time aerial operations to destroy large terrorist training camp in Afghanistan. Missions will launch from bases in Turkey, Diego Garcia, and Afghanistan.

Launch Window: 19-28 Nov 2004

Lead time: One month

Diego Garcia


Met nps

Slide from NPS climatology course Mission Planning Process

Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Slide from NPS climatology course Mission Planning Process

Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process

Manas IAP

c

x

v

c

x

v

Incirlik AB

c

x

v

Bagram AB

Herat

Kandahar

c

x

v

Slide from NPS climatology course

- More southerly storm track will result in possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving Incirlik

- Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian Gulf

- Manas can expect increased precipitation

- Bagram will see increased frequency of low ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds that may hinder Predator ops

- Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will potentially be adversely affected by low clouds enroute; result: potential mission cancellation

AR ‘B’

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

No expected enroute weather impacts

Expected enroute weather impacts to airframe may require mission rescheduling

Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed criteria; reschedule mission

c

Ceiling

Visibility

Crosswinds

c

x

v

v

x

Diego Garcia


Met nps

Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Mission Planning Process

Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts

Precip Fig

From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan and Pakistan, 1-15 February 2005

  • Precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff anomalies had large impacts on DoD operations. Led to combatant commanders requesting climate predictions for SWA.

  • Occurred during strong, persistent subsidence phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the eastern IO.

  • Investigated role of MJO and other climate variations in producing SWA climate anomalies.

Winds, Moist Adv

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Mission Planning Process

Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts

Wind & Specific Humidity Anomalies at 850 hPa

When MJO Convective Component is in Eastern IO

Convection

  • Note offshore wind and low moisture anomalies over and near SWA.

  • Opposite anomalies when convective component is in eastern IO.

From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Mission Planning Process

Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts

Precipitation and Surface Temperature Anomalies When

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Convective Component is in Eastern IO

  • Due to circulation anomalies shown in prior slide, SWA tends to be drier

  • and cooler than normal.

  • Result of cool, dry continental air advected from Asia.

  • Opposite anomalies when convective component is in eastern IO.

From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


Met nps

Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Mission Planning Process

Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts

Anomalies and Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precipitation in SWA

Above Normal

Precip

L

H

Below Normal

Convection

  • Figure shows low level anomaly pattern during periods of above normal precip in SWA.

  • Pattern occurs during specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode,

    Madden Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation. Example: much of 2004-05

    winter.

  • Phase reversal  pattern reversal  mechanism reversal  below normal SWA precip.

  • Mechanisms involve teleconnections from tropics and midlatitudes to SWA.

  • ENLN, NAO, and MJO predictable at leads of one week to six months  SWA precip

    may be predictable on these time scales. Next step: develop forecasting systems

    based on IO-W Pacific convection.

From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies: Mission Planning Process

Characterization and Development of Forecasts

MJO + El Nino + La Nina

MJO + El Nino

MJO + La Nina

MJO Only

From NPS thesis research by Capt A. Stepanek, USAF;

2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Prof. C. Wash.

Smart Climo,

Murphree@nps.edu,

Jun 06

EN or LN have large impacts on global response to MJO, and vice versa. Cause: interference between convective and subsidence components.


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Development and Application of Military Smart Climatology Process

This figures outlines a process for generating smart climatology products for military customers. For details of the process, and examples of its application, see the NPS thesis by Maj. Mark LaJoie (2006) and the next two slides (both from his thesis).

From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Development and Application of Military Smart Climatology Process

Camp Lemonier

U.S. Embassy

http://maps.google.com/

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_states.html

“Noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) are conducted to assist the Department of State (DOS) in evacuating noncombatants, nonessential military personnel, selected host-nation citizens, and third country nationals whose lives are in danger from locations in a host foreign nation to an appropriate safe haven and/or the United States. NEOs usually involve swift insertions of a force, temporary occupation of an objective, and a planned withdrawal upon completion of the mission.” JP3-07.5, “Joint Tactics, Techniques and Procedures for Noncombatant Evacuation Operations”

  • Scenario/Assumptions: Intel estimates indicate that the potential exists for a military coup in Ethiopia, which would necessitate the rapid evacuation of 150+ embassy personnel, plus an equal number of U.S. civilian expatriates (students, businesspeople). The USCENTCOM METOC (USAF O3) is tasked to develop a climatological assessment for a possible NEO during the Oct-Nov timeframe. A NEO CONPLAN is in development. The O3 recently read an NPS thesis discussing climate variations and military impacts in the HOA, and decides to use it as a guide for the assessment.

  • Intermediate Staging Base (ISB)/Safe Haven: Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, alternate USN ship.

  • Forces: MH53 Pave Lows, C130, RQ1-B Predator UAVs plus tankers & ground operations support

From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF; 2006;

advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Development and Application of Military Smart Climatology Process

Typical:October–November is the “short rains” season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by extensive cloud decks, showers and isolated, afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to collections and RQ1B operations are assessed in October and early November, improving to mostly favorable after the mid-November end of the rainy season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable overall, with occasional impacts from afternoon crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures exceeding operational thresholds.

El Nino:A strong El Nino event would tend to increase showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in October-November. ISR impacts will tend to worse than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is moderate to occasionally unfavorable. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years.

La Nina:A strong La Nina event would tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR impacts will tend to general improvement over typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as for the typical year, but expect thunderstorm and shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years.

Legend

  • Cloud cover 2. Precipitation 3. Winds 4. Temperature

From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF; 2006;

advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Characteristics of a Smart Climo Support System Process

  • A. Good System

    • ACMES-like capability with CDC access and analysis capability

  • B. Better System

    • Same as A but also:

    • 1. use of climate forecasts to produce forecasts of military

    • impacts

    • 2. fuzzy logic/integrated environment (atmosphere-ocean

    • terrain-space), just-in-time model runs

    • 3. WxFX impacts climatology

    • 4. hypercube archival with fast retrieval/display

  • C. Best System

    • Same as B but also:

    • 1. simplified interface

    • 2. environmental mode identification (e.g., fuzzy clustering

    • algorithms)

    • 3. improved input to downstream applications

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Some Research and Development Issues to be Resolved Process

  • What additional long term data and proxy climo data needs to be accessed and/or generated? Possibilities include collecting existing cloud, precip, climate index, and space climate data sets; using model based downscaling to create higher space-time resolution climo data.

  • What analysis tools need be collected, adapted and/or developed to readily and consistently generate relevant quantities (e.g., correlations, statistical significance, clusters).

  • What are the critical climate regimes and variations that need to be addressed for specific regions and types of operations?

  • How do environmental parameter clusters map to environmental impact clusters?

  • The main challenge is to bring the pieces together to focus on

  • war fighter needs.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Some Research and Development Issues to be Resolved Process

A variety of existing methods for enhancing traditional LTM

climatologies need to be tested and compared. Ocean examples:

1. Dynamic MODAS

2. Statistical modeling

3. Ocean reanalyses

4. Ocean model based downscaling

5. Long term OGCM simulations

LTM Climatology

Dynamic MODAS

In Situ Data

Other Smart Climo

Products based on ocean reanalysis, statistical modeling, downscaling, long term simulations, etc.

Ocean Temperature, depth vs. latitude cross sections

From Feldmeier (2005), adapted from Fox et al. (2002)

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Reasons to Pursue Smart Climo Support for War Fighters Process

1. Requirements for METOC support include smart climo support.

Modern advances in climate science and operational climatology have

left DoD in the dust.

2. Large amounts of climo data are available but unused by DoD

3. Tested climatological monitoring, analysis, modeling, and

forecasting methods are available but unused by DoD.

4. Proven supporting computing technologies are available:

a. Distributed resources

b. Fuzzy logic/analysis

c. Computing clusters

d. Joint rules databases

e. Web services

f. Infrastructure to link models for climo runs

5. Recently developed TDAs and OR applications can handle, and can

be improved by smart climo inputs.

6. The time is right to leverage developments.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Outline of Smart Climatology Process

Prototype Development Project

Goal

Develop state-of-the-art climate products for operational commanders,

and METOC personnel, and the means to distribute those products.

Need

Climatologic products and services for military operations need to

take full advantage of recent developments in observations,

reanalysis, downscaling, and the diagnosis, monitoring, and

forecasting of climate.

First Step

Collaborate with METOC personnel and war fighter customers to

Identify high priority and feasible ocean climate products and

services. This involves identifying the highest priority geographic

regions, time scales, operation types, weapons systems,

environmental phenomena, etc.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Outline of Smart Climatology Process

Prototype Development Project

  • Data and Methods

  • Develop observational climatologies based on existing observational and reanalysis data.

  • a. Select ocean observational and reanalysis data sets.

  • b. Develop climatologies using observations and reanalyses for at least the last 30 years. Do this in order to emphasize satellite-era data, to represent interannual and decadal events, and to capture recent climate trends.

  • c. Develop event-specific climatologies and indices, including composites and indices that describe characteristic features of regional and global events (seasonal transitions, climate variations).

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Outline of Smart Climatology Process

Prototype Development Project

  • Data and Methods

  • Develop model and downscaled climatologies based on observational climatologies.

  • a. Collect regional scale observations for use in verifying model / downscaled climatologies.

  • b. Downscale observational climatologies using statistical methods.

  • c. Downscale observational climatologies using regional models.

  • d. Verify downscaled climatologies using regional observations.

  • Develop tools for generating military impacts forecasts based on intraseasonal to interannual forecasts from operational climate centers (e.g., CPC, IRI, ECMWF, Hadley Center, BOM, etc.).

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Outline of Smart Climatology Process

Prototype Development Project

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

  • Deliverable Products

  • 1. Interactive, menu-driven system for accessing, data and products (models: interactive data access and display sites at CDC, PMEL).

  • System allows customers to select and display a wide range of parameters to display in the graphic, text, and/or numerical form appropriate for their specific operations.

  • System automatically adjusts products to account for climate events forecasted for user-selected time and place. Users would be prompted to re-submit request at time closer to the target time to take advantage of updated info about climate events, especially shorter term events that might not be apparent at long lead times.

  • Tailored planning products for a select set of high priority locations and operations. Products would be created in two versions: (1) a more scientifically oriented version for METOC personnel; and (2) an operationally oriented version for combatant commanders.


Met nps

Outline of Smart Climatology Process

Prototype Development Project

  • Unique NPS Contributions to Smart Climatology Projects

  • Faculty, staff, and student as project collaborators: The fleet experience of student collaborators would be especially valuable in developing customer-appropriate products.

  • Faculty, staff, and students as advisors on climate science and technology, and their military applications: Student advisors’ fleet experience would be especially valuable in designing and testing products.

  • Online short courses and tutorials on climate science and its military applications available to METOC personnel and war fighter customers. Educational modules would help users make better use of products, and provide useful feedback for improving products.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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NPS Course Description Process

Modern Climatology, MR 3610

Quarter Units: 4

Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree

Introductory investigation of Earth’s climate system. Long term mean temporal and spatial patterns, and seasonal cycles at global, regional, and local scales, with an emphasis on areas of DoD interest. Dynamic and thermodynamic processes that govern the climate system (e.g., atmosphere-ocean-land interactions, large scale, low frequency waves, teleconnections). Intraseasonal to decadal climate variations (e.g., anomalous temperature, pressure, and precipitation patterns; Madden-Julian Oscillation; El Nino/La Nina/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation). Impacts of climate variations on weather systems, and the role of climatology in weather analysis and forecasting. Introduction to the use of climatology in planning and conducting military operations with case studies from regions of DoD interest. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but also addresses the oceanic component at some length. The oceanic and/or land components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Pre-requisites: MR 3321 and 3222 (or equivalent courses form another university), a more advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor.

Copies of course materials

available on request

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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NPS Course Description Process

AdvancedClimatology, MR 4250

Quarter Units: 3

Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree

This course addresses advanced topics in operational climatology and military applications of climatology. The topics may vary with each offering, especially in response to student interests. Topics include: (1) statistical, dynamical, and numerical modeling methods used in operational climate analysis and forecasting; (2) advanced analyses of regional and local climate patterns and processes in areas of DoD interest; (3) strategic implications of long term global climate change; (4) role of climatology in strategic to tactical level planning of military operations; (5) assessments of NOAA, Air Force, and Navy climatology methods and products; (6) evaluation of joint military climatology planning tools; and (7) student development of climatology products and planning tools based on civilian and military methods and products. For fall 2006, one of the main topics will be Southwest Asia climate, especially climatological patterns and processes, interactions between weather and climate phenomena, and climate predictions, in particular, predictions for military operations. This course places a strong emphasis on the applications of climate science to military operations. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but also addresses the oceanic component at some length. The oceanic and/or land components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Pre-requisites: MR 3321 and 3222 (or equivalent courses form another university), a more advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor. Students are also strongly encouraged, but are not required, to take MR 3610 before MR 4250.

Copies of course materials

available on request

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Invited Presentations on Military Climatology in Process

NPS Climatology Courses (MR 3610 and MR 4250)

Military Applications of Smart Climatology

Col D. Smarsh, USAF

Climatology in Joint Operational Planning

Capt J. Hernandez and Capt D. Wunder, USAF

Smart Climatology in Support of Naval War Fighters

LCDR B. Ford, USN

Operational Climatology in the U.S. Air Force

Capt J. Jarry, USAF

Operational Typhoon Climatology for Western North Pacific Air Bases

Capt K. Burton, USAF

Operational Climatology in OIF

Capt Chris Weaver, USAF

Development of Smart Climatology Briefs for DoD Planning

Maj Karen Darnell and Maj Mark LaJoie, USAF

Copies of briefs

available on request

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Selected References Process

Best, J., and V. Gurley, 2005. Brief for ASW Coordination / CONOPS Conference, 14 March 2005.

Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian.

Ford, B., and T. Murphree, 2006. SmartClimatology in Support of Naval War Fighters. Naval Postgraduate School Technical Report, in review.

Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 2000. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree.

Fox, D.N., C.N. Barron, M.R. Carnes, M. Booda, G. Peggion, and J.V. Gurley, 2002b: The Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS), Oceanography, 15(1), 22-28.

Hildebrand, P., 2001. El Nino and La Nina Events and North Atlantic tropical Cyclones. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2001. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree.

LaJoie, M., 2006. The Impact of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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Selected References - continued Process

Murphree, T., S. Bograd, F. Schwing, and B. Ford. 2003. Large scale atmosphere-ocean anomalies in the northeast Pacific during 2002 and their impacts on the California Current System. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 8026-8029.

Murphree, T., P. Green-Jessen, F. Schwing, and S. Bograd. 2003. The seasonal cycle of wind stress curl and its relationship to subsurface ocean temperature in the northeast Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1469-1472.

Schwing, F.B., T. Murphree, L. deWitt, and P.M. Green. 2002. The evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the northeast Pacific during the El Niño and La Niña events of 1995-2001. Progress in Oceanography, 54, 459-491.

Schwing, F.B., T. Murphree, and P.M. Green. 2002. The Northern Oscillation Index (NOI): a new climate index for the northeast Pacific. Progress in Oceanography, 53, 115-139.

Stepanek, A., 2006. Improving Medium-Range Forecasts in North America Using Teleconnections Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Prof. Chuck Wash.

Vorhees, D., 2006. The Impacts of Global Scale Climate Variations on Southwest Asia.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer.

Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06


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