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Taking the Pulse: Polling Citizen Opinion on Tax and Bond Questions Presented to the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners 24 January 2008 By Mark Wm. Hertzog, Ph.D. Contents Why Poll? How Polling is Done: Questionnaire Development Sampling and Sampling Error
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Presented to the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners
24 January 2008
By Mark Wm. Hertzog, Ph.D.
$150 Million School BondQ4. Another possibility is a Durham Public Schools bond issue with fewer projects, but for a smaller amount, at the $150 million level. This COULD increase the property tax on a $200,000 home by $100 per year. Considering this possibility, how would you vote on a Durham Public Schools bond issue for $150 million? Q4A. Would you say you lean more toward voting “yes,” or toward voting “no,” on the school bond issue, or are you really not sure?Q5. (Asked only of respondents who answered “no” or “lean no”) What would your reasons be for voting “no” on the school bond referendum?
Q4: School bond at $150 million
White women were more likely than other groups to cite the fact that they did not have children in the Durham Public Schools as a reason for voting no.
Those who said they were somewhat informed about DPS construction projects were more likely to cite the cost to taxpayers than were either those who said they were well informed, or those who said they were not well informed.Durham Public Schools: “No” Vote Reasons
Q9: Prepared food tax
Q10: Land transfer tax
Q11. Now let’s suppose the bond issues we’ve discussed were financed largely by a prepared food tax, or a land transfer tax, or both, rather than higher property taxes. Would this make you more likely, or less likely, to vote for the bond issues, or would it make no difference in your vote?
The answers appear at right.Preferences between the Proposals
Just as occurred in the May survey, about 2-3% of all voters, who are classified in voter registration records as black, categorize themselves otherwise in the survey, most often “multiracial” or “some other race.” If voter registration records are used, rather than self-categorization, then 30.4% of respondents are black, and 2.7% belong to “all other racial categories.”
This table compares the survey respondents to the turnout by race in Durham County in the November 2006 general election, and to the Durham County voter registration rolls as of 18 April 2007.
The “Before” Sequence
The alternative tax questions
The “After” Sequence
Q4: 0.25% Sales tax increase on non-food items
Q5: 0.4% Land transfer tax
Questions and comments regarding this presentation may be directed to:
Mark Wm. Hertzog, Ph.D., Principal
Hertzog Research, LLC
601 Jones Ferry Road, Suite N7
Carrboro, NC 27510