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New Indicators for the MEI Nadim Ahmad OECD Statistics Directorate Short-Term Economic Statistics Working Party Paris, 23-24 June 2008 4 Target Areas Entrepreneurship House Price Indices Labour Productivity Accession Process Index of Services? Entrepreneurship

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New Indicators for the MEI


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new indicators for the mei

New Indicators for the MEI

Nadim Ahmad

OECD Statistics Directorate

Short-Term Economic Statistics Working Party

Paris, 23-24 June 2008

4 target areas
4 Target Areas
  • Entrepreneurship
  • House Price Indices
  • Labour Productivity
  • Accession Process
  • Index of Services?
entrepreneurship
Entrepreneurship
  • Work on Short term Indicators of Business dynamics
  • Scoping study using EU data for 2000-2006 demonstrated feasibility of using LFS data to create:
    • (a) monthly/quarterly estimates of self-employment and/or business ownership rates
    • (b) quarterly estimates of self-employment ‘start-up’ rates
    • (c) self-employment ‘survival’ rates
survival rates probability of remaining in self employment by quarter uk 2000 2006
‘Survival rates’Probability of Remaining in Self-Employment by Quarter – UK, 2000-2006
entrepreneurship6
Entrepreneurship
  • But also the need to resolve a number of issues:
    • Small sample sizes create, for some countries, volatile start-up rates
    • A more serious problem for ‘survival rates’ as responses to “in self-emp for 0-3 months’ ; “4-6 months”; “7-9 months” etc get incrementally smaller
    • Data is NSA.

So, need to establish: (a) SA techniques (b) trend estimates of start-ups and (c) averaging over-time for survival rates (so, not really a ST indicator)

house price indices
House Price Indices
  • Initial OECD country scoping study to create inventory of HPIs across OECD countries as input into Handbook on HPIs (now being led by Eurostat).
house price indices9
House Price Indices
  • But a number of issues require resolution
  • Best Practice/Concepts/Definitions (to form part of the Handbook)...to help determine....
    • the most appropriate national source (some countries have multiple sources)
    • Cross-country methodological differences – representativeness, weights, quality etc
monthly labour productivity
Monthly Labour productivity
  • Building on development of ULC database, intention is to use similar sources of info to derive Q labour productivity estimates.
  • Likely to face similar obstacles, especially volatility, and will need to investigate whether trending and benchmarking techniques will also resolve/ameliorate these obstacles.
oecd accession country process
OECD Accession Country Process
  • CHILE
  • ESTONIA,
  • ISRAEL,
  • RUSSIA,
  • SLOVENIA
index of services
Index of Services
  • Building on earlier 2007 study and ‘Compilation Manual for IOS Production’, investigate scope and comparability of IOS data (and sectoral components) for OECD countries.
  • Earlier study revealed scope in AUS, CAN, JPN,KOR, MEX, NZL and US and EU (via Regulation).
  • But further investigations needed: e.g. deflators, sectoral coverage, correlation with SBS.