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Carothers: comments & criticisms Determinants of Democracy? Economics & Democracy II India vs. Nigeria This week (tentative): Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday, 12:30-3:30 Winter break: email Papers Final papers discussion Caroters

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Carothers: comments & criticisms
  • Determinants of Democracy?
  • Economics & Democracy II
  • India vs. Nigeria
  • This week (tentative): Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday, 12:30-3:30
  • Winter break: email
  • Papers
  • Final papers discussion
caroters
Caroters

(i) “The war on terrorism has hurt America's status as a model of democracy and weakened America's credibility as a prodemocratic actor.”

(ii) “Democracy is in a strict sense about political values, choices, and processes; it does not per se provide answers to economic and social problems.”

slide3
(iii) Carothers implies that these factors combined are dangerous for a democratic country, but how could you combine them?
democracy development
Democracy & Development
  • Development → Democracy

(endogenous account)

Democracy is endogenous to (is a creation of) development;

Democracies are more likely to emerge as countries develop

ii development sustains democracy
(ii) Development sustains democracy

(exogenous account)

Democracies emerge forreasons other than development, but they are more likely to survive as democracies indeveloped nations (exogenous)

przeworski et al 1997 2000
Przeworski et al., 1997, 2000

Predicting regime type (Auth. or Dem.) as a function of several independent variables:

a)Economic development (per capita GNP)

b)Political legacy ((i) NC/post-1945 & (ii) British legacy)

c)Political history (# of past transitions to authoritarianism)

d) Religious structure (% Catholic, Protestant, Muslim)

e) Cleavages (ethno-linguistic & religious fractionalization)

d) International political climate (% democracies in world)

slide9
Economic development - by far the best predictor of regime type
  • Per capita GNP alone correctly predicts around 78% of cases
  • “Everything” (per capita GNP included) correctly predicts 82% of cases
dynamic model
Dynamic model?
  • Predicting change/transition?
  • Life-expectancy of dictatorships:

20 years at $1,000 per capita GDP

15 years at $5,000

11 years at $10,000

6 years at $20,000

tradeoffs
Tradeoffs?
  • Is it necessary to sacrifice democracy for development?
  • Who is better at promoting economic growth?
  • Democracies vs. dictatorships: moderately affluent nations ($3,000-3,500)
  • Similar growth rates
  • However…
wealthy dictatorships
(Wealthy) dictatorships:

(i) use a lot of labor &

(ii) pay low wages (repressing unions)

(i) + (ii) → labor-intensive productivity,

  • higher birth rates/fertility
  • but shorter longevity (esp. for women)
wealthy democracies
(Wealthy) democracies:

Grow by using labor more effectively:

  • slower population & labor growth rates,
  • higher wages
  • benefit more from technical progress
summary
Summary
  • Clear, positive relationship between economic development & democracy
  • Some scholars argue that development increases democracy’s survivability odds (exogenous effect)
  • Others argue that development increases the chances of transition to democracy (exogenous effect)
slide15
No necessary tradeoff between economic growth and democracy
  • Wealthy democracies and autocracies - equally good at promoting growth
  • However, as a worker you are better off in a democracy
  • Democracy appears better than autocracy on both normative and practical grounds
india vs nigeria
India vs. Nigeria
  • What does India have that Nigeria does not?
  • “Resource curse”?
  • Oil → corruption, authoritarianism
  • Cultural cleavages: India vs. Nigeria
  • Institutions?

Federalism: India vs. Nigeria (different logic)

Presidentialism (Nigeria) vs. parliamentarism (India)

papers
Papers
  • Take a look at the CD (recommended readings)
  • Also, take a look at online resources (APSA, Midwest, Kellog)
  • Do some web search

Writing:

  • Passive voice vs. active voice (exercise)
  • “I” vs. “we”