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CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS John B. Alexander, Ph.D. Senior Fellow Joint Special Operations University PRINCIPLES OF WAR CULMINATING SEMINAR Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Arlington, Virginia 13 April 2005 FUTURE WAR:

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slide1

CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS

John B. Alexander, Ph.D.

Senior Fellow

Joint Special Operations University

PRINCIPLES OF WAR CULMINATING SEMINAR

Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

Arlington, Virginia

13 April 2005

FUTURE WAR:

NLW in 21st Century Warfare

St. Martin’s Press, 1999

WINNING THE WAR

St. Martin’s Press

July 2003

Contact: Email: Nonlethal2@aol.com, (702) 804-5575

slide3

THE NATURE OF WAR HAS CHANGED

AT THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL - DEFINITION

THERE ARE WARS ON:

POVERTY

DRUGS

CANCER

WE HAVE LOST THE MEANING OF WAR

slide4

CURRENT CONFLICT - ASSUMPTIONS

  • The Global War on Terror (GWOT) lacks specificity
    • Two models of war – ours is wrong
    • Competing values prevents us from winning
  • World War X (WW X) has begun
    • Clash of civilizations
    • WW X is religious
  • We do not understand the threat
slide5

TWO MODELS OF WAR

PHILOSOPHICAL

(JIHAD)

V

NATION-STATE

OURS MAY BE

ANACHRONISTIC

the problem of competing values
THE PROBLEM OF COMPETING VALUES

GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR

WAR ON DRUGS

SPENT $0.5T

ROI = 0

WE ARE UNWILLING TO DO WHAT IS NEEDED TO WIN

slide7

DICHOTOMIES OF FUTURE CONFLICT

Physical Deterrence and Defeat

Philosophical Conversion/Subjugation

slide8

IS PERCEPTION REALITY???

Fallujah - America's hollow victory

25 Nov 04

Chemical weapons lab found in Fallujah

SHUJAAT

WE ARE LOSING

THIS WAR

what do they see
WHAT DO THEY SEE

Woman Searched

Israeli Terrorism

Israeli Assassination

Boys Torment Woman

slide10

TYPES OF FUTURE WARS

  • Overt War
    • Enduring Freedom
    • Iraqi Freedom
  • Covert War
    • Afghanistan
    • Central America
    • Africa
  • Outsourced War
    • Executive Outcomes
    • International Security Firms
slide11

KEY ISSUES FOR FUTURE CONFLICT

  • DEVOLUTION OF NATION-STATE STATUS
    • Redefining America
  • POPULATION GROWTH RATE OF THIRD WORLD
    • Near exponential vs impact of famine and disease
  • POLITICALIZATION OF EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS
    • Secular vs Religious Education
slide12

KEY ISSUES CONTINUED

  • GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM INSTABILITY
    • Global Warming – Changing Weather – Water
  • PHILOSOPHICAL INCOMPATIBILITIES
    • Fundamentalism (predominantly Islamic) vs the world
  • UNSUSTAINABLE LEGAL CONSTRAINTS
    • Anachronistic – Ponderous - Incongruent
slide13

CONUNDRUMS OF CONFLICT

  • Physical force will not resolve conflict
  • Philosophical differences irreconcilable
  • Political correctness reigns
  • Terrorism treated as street crime
  • Unwillingness to kill viewed as weakness
  • What to do with prisoners in war without end
  • Anachronistic treaties as rule of law
  • Retroactive consideration/application of law
  • Responsibility pushed to lowest common denominator
  • War in realtime on television
winning conundrum
WINNING CONUNDRUM

SECURITY VS PERSONAL RIGHTS

WHEN THREATENED WE WILL CHOOSE SECURITY

nlws are coming of age
NLWS ARE COMING OF AGE

BUT THE NAYSAYERS PERSIST

seven deadly sins of non lethal weapons
SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
  • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war
  • -         NLWs will start a new arms race
  • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
  • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
  • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
  • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
  • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
seven deadly sins of non lethal weapons17
SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
  • -      NLWs make it easier to initiate war
  • -         NLWs will start a new arms race
  • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
  • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
  • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
  • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
  • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
seven deadly sins of non lethal weapons19
SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
  • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war
  • -         NLWs will start a new arms race
  • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
  • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
  • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
  • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
  • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
what new arms race
WHAT NEW ARMS RACE???

WORLD NLW $50M/Yr

$250M ea

$9B

WAR $5B/Mo

10 Tanks = all NLWs

$4B ea/ $22B Life Cycle

Non-Lethal Weapons are 0.012% of US DOD Budget

seven deadly sins of non lethal weapons21
SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
  • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war
  • -         NLWs will start a new arms race
  • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
  • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
  • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
  • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
  • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
nlws and torture
NLWS AND TORTURE

Monk with torture devices used by Chinese

Victoria with instruments of torture

TORTURE IS AN ISSUE OF HUMAN INTENT- NOT DEVICES

seven deadly sins of non lethal weapons23
SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
  • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war
  • -         NLWs will start a new arms race
  • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
  • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
  • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
  • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
  • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
nlw deaths and injuries
NLW DEATHS AND INJURIES

Compared to what????

More than 110 deaths of children under 6

17 deaths with 125,000 rounds fired

Probability of fatality 0.00014

THE ISSUE IS TRAINING AND SUPERVISION

seven deadly sins of non lethal weapons25
SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
  • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war
  • -         NLWs will start a new arms race
  • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
  • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
  • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
  • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
  • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
nailing a foot to the floor
NAILING A FOOT TO THE FLOOR

MOSCOW THEATER

A MATTER OF CHOICE

slide27

INCAPACITATING AGENTS

WHAT YOU DID READ:

- NERVE GAS KILLED RUSSIAN HOSTAGES (UPI)

- DEADLY END TO MOSCOW SIEGE SHOWS

DANGERS OF INCAPACITATING CHEMICALS (AP)

- CONCERN ARISES OVER TYPE OF GAS USED

BY MOSCOW (WASH POST)

- USE OF GAS RISKS OTHERS FOLLOWING SUIT (SF CHRONICLE)

WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE READ:

HUNDREDS SAVED BY USE OF INCAPACITATING AGENT

WOULD YOU SET TODAY’S SPEED LIMITS BASED ON

AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLGY OF 1900???

seven deadly sins of non lethal weapons28
SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
  • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war
  • -         NLWs will start a new arms race
  • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
  • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
  • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
  • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
  • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
suppressing dissent
SUPPRESSING DISSENT

Watts, CA

Nepal

Madrid

Brazil

Mexico City

seven deadly sins of non lethal weapons30
SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
  • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war
  • -         NLWs will start a new arms race
  • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
  • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
  • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
  • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
  • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
how good is good enough
HOW GOOD IS GOOD ENOUGH?

Permanent Injury (Eye Trauma)

100

Effectiveness (Skin Pain)

Effectiveness

Risk of Injury (%)

Serious Injury

Non-Lethality Index

(Startle)

0

Dose

slide32

BUT WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE WHO:

  • HAVE PACEMAKERS?
  • EXTREME HEART CONDITIONS?
  • ARE ASTHMATIC?
  • ARE VERY OLD?
  • ARE BLIND, DEAF MIDGETS WITH PARKINSON’S ?

“Life is tough; it’s tougher when you’re stupid.”

John Wayne as SGT John Stryker

Sands of Iwo Jima

slide33

PERCEPTION

THE PROBLEM OF DIFFERING WORLD VIEWS

AIN’T IT AWFUL???

slide36

RECONSIDERATION OF ISSUES

  • WHAT PROBLEM ARE YOU SOLVING?
  • COMPLAINTSBASED ON EMOTION VS. FACTS
  • BLAME TECHNOLOGY FOR HUMAN PROBLEMS
  • CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL AGENTS HAVE PEACEFUL PURPOSES
  • MORE OPTIONS ARE PREFERABLE TO LESS
  • THE RESULTS ARE IN: NLWS ARE NOT A ROAD TO HELL

THE PRIMARY QUESTION SHOULD BE:

COMPARED TO WHAT?

slide37

“There are two things that are infinite…..the universe and

human stupidity. And I’m not sure about the former.”

slide38

COMING SOON TO A COMMUNITY NEAR YOU

NLWS: NOW MORE THAN EVER

future battlegrounds
FUTURE BATTLEGROUNDS

BERLIN

PARIS

MOSCOW

MADRID

PRAGUE

AND MANY OTHERS

slide40

THE CHALLENGE

Kabul 29 Aug 04

7 killed

Madrid 3 Mar 05

192 killed

Jakarta 9 Sept 04

11 killed

Kathmandu 1 Sep 04

2 killed

Bali 12 Oct 02

202 killed

slide41

NOW IT’S YOUR KIDS IN THE SCHOOL:

WHAT WEAPONS DO YOU WANT POLICE TO USE??