Developing Indonesia’s Crisis Monitoring and Response System - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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for Inclusive and Sustainable Development

THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA

Regional Conference on the Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis to the Vulnerable Sectors in the Region: Civil Society Voices and ASEAN

Developing Indonesia’s Crisis Monitoring and Response System

World Bank Jakarta Office

28 July 2009

The Government of Indonesia is establishing a Crisis Monitoring and Response System (CMR)

CRISIS MONITORING AND RESPONSE IN INDONESIA

CMR should allow the government to:

understand the impact of the current global economic crisis on vulnerable households and individuals in Indonesia

who, where, how deep, through what channels?

undertake the appropriate policy response in a targeted and effective manner

AusAID is financially supporting the government to develop CMR
The World Bank is assisting the government by:

identifying key indicators to monitor and potential data sources
developing an analytical framework
linking monitoring to appropriate response

SAMPLE

The crisis has multiple mechanisms requiring multiple responses

Transmission

Mechanisms

Possible

Outcomes

Possible

Responses

Coping

Mechanisms

Increasing cost of food

Reduced food consumption
Use of lower quality foods

Malnutrition

UCT (unconditional cash transfer), Rice for the Poor

Reduced household income (reduced labour demand)

Reduced food consumption

Malnutrition

UCT, Rice for the Poor, Public works (PNPM)

Reduced health expenditure

Low birth weight
Infant and child mortality
Maternal mortality
Disease and illness
Reduced labour productivity

UCT
Rice for the Poor
Public works (PNPM)

Reduced education expenditure

School drop-out

School-directed financial support, CCT (conditional cash transfer), public works

Women and children working

School drop-out
Absenteeism

UCT, CCT, public works

Reliance on assets and borrowing

Loss of income
Greater vulnerability to shocks

UCT
Public works

Risk-pooling

Possible responses are examples only. Further work is required to understand the effectiveness and feasibility of various responses. For example, with respect to PKH, management and supply side issues would need to be addressed before possible expansion

Note

Key quantitative indicators will be monitored quarterly

The household survey must be low burden yet cover the entire country

Objectives

collect household data to provide indicators not available from existing sources

Requirements

frequent (quarterly)
nationwide but at the district level
timely to process and analyse
low cost

to field
to process

low technical capacity required in the field

Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) meets these requirements

Overview of LQAS

sampling method allowing very small sample sizes
used widely in public health evaluation throughout the world

Required steps

setting acceptable and unacceptable thresholds for each indicator
determining desired accuracy
selecting sample size and decision rule

sample sizes could be as low as 25 households per district

LQAS provides a quick indication of regions affected and urgent issues...

indicate districts requiring action or deeper analysis

classify each district as acceptable or unacceptable on each indicator

provide provincial and national estimates for each indicator
but cannot assess indicator levels and trends at a district level

... however, is insufficient by itself to understand causes and required responses

Implementation of Household and Health Facility Survey

Implementing Agency

BPS-Statistics Indonesia

Household survey design

three rounds quarterly (August 2009, November 2009, February 2010)
is a subsample of and piggy-backed on SAKERNAS (Labor Survey)

a panel 14,130 households
6 households x 5 census blocks x 471 districts

Health facility survey design

three rounds quarterly (August 2009, November 2009, February 2010)
administrative data collection

district health office
health centers (5 health centers per district)

Qualitative analysis will deepen understanding of the context driving the indicators

Rapid qualitative assessment is required to support the quantitative analysis

accuracy of signals
understanding underlying causes
confirming indicator triggers require action
determining effective policy responses

SMERU will conduct such a diagnosis
The qualitative and quantitative components of CMR will interact with each other dynamically

indicator results will provide direction on policy areas for qualitative diagnosis next quarter
indicator mix may change as qualitative diagnosis identifies underlying causes and areas requiring most attention