the transferability of brazilian knowledge and technology
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
The Transferability of Brazilian Knowledge and Technology

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 15

The Transferability of Brazilian Knowledge and Technology - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 332 Views
  • Uploaded on

The Transferability of Brazilian Knowledge and Technology. Donald Mitchell* World Bank *Lead Economist, Development Prospects Group April 25, 2006 . Sugar cane as an energy crop. Sugar cane produces a large amount of biomass per hectare (80 tons)

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'The Transferability of Brazilian Knowledge and Technology' - DoraAna


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
the transferability of brazilian knowledge and technology

The Transferability of Brazilian Knowledge and Technology

Donald Mitchell*

World Bank

*Lead Economist, Development Prospects Group April 25, 2006

sugar cane as an energy crop
Sugar cane as an energy crop
  • Sugar cane produces a large amount of biomass per hectare (80 tons)
  • Cane juice can produce ethanol or sugar
  • Bagasse can be burned to produce electricity
  • Molasses can be used to produce ethanol, other alcohols and other products
potential as energy crop depends on
Potential as energy crop depends on:
  • Price of sugar
  • Price of energy
  • Government incentives
  • Environmental benefits
co generation seems to hold the greatest promise
Co-generation seems to hold the greatest promise
  • Cane residue (bagasse) is a clean burning fuel
  • High pressure boilers can produce electricity from bagasse to power sugar factory and supply electricity to national grid
  • Economically viable because bagasse has almost no other value
  • Reduces cost of sugar production by removing power plant from factory
ethanol economics
Ethanol economics
  • Prices of ethanol have been high and sugar low – ideal conditions for ethanol
  • But sugar prices have tripled in past two year which changes the profitability
  • Ethanol is profitable in Brazil because it is the world’s lowest cost producer of sugar and has large installed ethanol production capacity
understanding the risks
Understanding the risks
  • Crude oil prices are at record highs and will likely fall over the longer term
  • The global sugar market is undergoing a major restructuring and prices may not return to previous lows
  • Large investments in ethanol could become very unprofitable
  • Large subsidies to ethanol production divert resources away from more economic uses
crude oil prices are high because
Crude oil prices are high because
  • Lack of surplus production capacity due to many years of low prices and little incentive to invest
  • Rapid demand growth from China and other countries
  • Supply disruptions – hurricanes in US, strikes in Nigeria, terrorist strikes in Iraq
  • Uncertainty about future supplies
sugar market in transition
Sugar market in transition
  • EU policy reform could make the EU a large net importer
  • Many ACP countries will reduce exports because of EU price cuts
  • Global sugar market will be restructured
  • Sugar prices may not return to previous low levels
sugar prices13
Sugar prices

Forecast

conclusion
Conclusion
  • Co-generation appears to be profitable and has environmental advantages
  • Ethanol production from sugar cane is not profitable for most countries even at current high prices
  • Risk to investing in ethanol production is that energy prices will fall and/or sugar prices will remain high, and …
slide15
Governments could be left supporting large ethanol industries which are unprofitable
  • Resources could be diverted from more efficient uses such as food crop or export crop production
ad