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New Approaches to Understanding the demand for Transit. Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group Meeting presented by Christopher Wornum Cambridge Systematics, Inc. June 28, 2007.

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New Approaches to Understanding the demand for Transit


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    1. New Approaches to Understanding the demand for Transit Transportation leadership you can trust. presented toRegional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group Meeting presented byChristopher WornumCambridge Systematics, Inc. June 28, 2007

    2. Market-Based Planning ProcessFrom Private Sector to Public Sector Toyota Private Sector Mobility Services

    3. Door-to-Door ServiceConsistent Customer Experience Work Home Relative Importance Walk Ride Wait Arrival Walk Seat Errands Pay Board • Access • Emergencies • Modes • Schedule • Distance • Esthetics • Barriers • Alternative modes • Weather • Reliability • Way Finding • Transfer • Speed • Comfort • Productive • Low floor • Queuing • Speed • Availability • Comfort • Privacy • Fare • Convenience • Transfer • Headway • Arrival information • Shelter Comfort • Safety • Distance • Esthetics • Barriers • Weather

    4. RoadmapFrom Market Research to Service Planning ServicePlanning Tool(SPT) Service Planning (Product Development) TransitCompetitivenessFactor(TCF) Understand Customers Market Segmentation Mode Choice Analysis Branding &Marketing Competitive Positioning Understand Markets Origin – Destination Volumes Other Travel Market Conditions

    5. Determine Traveler Attitudes Need for Flexibility and Speed Personal Travel Experience Personal Safety Concern for theNatural Environment Value of Time & Productivity Transportation Costs Crowds Stress

    6. Key Attitude Number 2 Sensitivity to PersonalTravel Experience 100% • The people who ride the trolley are like me • The people who ride city buses are like me • The people who ride the Coaster commuter train are like me • I would (not) prefer to drive than to be driven • I don’t mind delays as long as I am comfortable • Generally I make the same types of trips at the same times of day • The type of transportation that people use (does not) reflect their social status 96% 67% 27% 22% 10% 8%

    7. Less Sensitive Indifferent More Sensitive -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Range of Attitudes for all Potential CustomersAll Market Segments Combined Universal Design Service AttributesImportant for Entire Service Population Flexibility & Speed Personal TravelExperience Personal Safety Concern for Environment Time &Productivity Cost Crowds Stress

    8. Structure of Market SegmentsSan Diego Region “Need for flexibility and speed” Less Need For Flexibility & Speed “Sensitivity to personal safety” Low Sensitivity to Personal Safety High Sensitivity to Personal Safety Cautious Runabouts Intrepid Trekkers Residents in SANDAG Service Area More Need For Flexibility & Speed “Personal travel experience” HighSensitivity toExperience LowSensitivity toExperience High Sensitivity toExperience MediumSensitivity toExperience LowSensitivity to Experience Flexible Flyers ConventionalCruisers Easy Goers Road Runners

    9. Quantifying Tradeoffs How Much Do Flexible Flyers Value Different Options? Save 5 minute walking access time Save 5 minute parking search time Guaranteed seat No transfer Save 5 minute driving access Shuttle Reduce cost by 50 cents Save 5 minute in-vehicle travel time Having real time arrival information Improve peak headway by 5 min Improve off-peak headway by 5 min

    10. Strategic RoadmapUnderstanding Markets ServicePlanning Tool(SPT) Understand Customers Market Segmentation Mode Choice Analysis Competitive Positioning Existing Assets Local governmentcooperation Financial resources

    11. Service Planning Tool Travel Demand Model Output Segmentation & SEM Segment-Specific Mode Choice Models Trip Tables Base LOS IVTT Frequencies Transit Network Parking Supply Fares Seat Availability Segment Locations & Characteristics Quantify Tradeoffs between Service Characteristics Service Planning Tool ArcGIS User Interface Network Structure Performance Variables Customer Experience Census Data or Travel Model Socioeconomics Ridership Mode Peak vs. Off-peak Trip Purpose

    12. Strategic RoadmapUnderstanding Markets TransitCompetitivenessFactor(TCF) Understand Customers Market Segmentation Mode Choice Analysis Understand Markets Origin – Destination Volumes Other Travel Market Conditions

    13. Understanding MarketsIdentify Places Where Transit is Competitive Trip Intensity • Trip generation & attraction • Time of day • Trip purpose Competitive Advantage for Transit • Congestion • Transit priority • Parking scarcity and Price Concentration of Target Market Segments

    14. Transit Competitiveness Factor (TCF)Each Factor Weighted by Ability to Generate Transit Trips Transit Competitiveness Factor Transportation Land Use Factors Customer Types Trip Purposes • Trip Density • Parking Search Time • Parking Cost • Auto Access, Egress Time • Congestion • Pedestrian Friendliness • Road Runners • Cautious Runabouts • Intrepid Trekkers • Flexible Flyers • Conventional Cruisers • Easy Goers • Work • School • Other

    15. Transit Competitive Origin TCF – Santa Clara County

    16. Destination TCF Transit competitive threshold = 30 jobs per gross acre Transit Competitive 11 percent of trips go to transit competitive destinations

    17. Questions and Answers