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New Approaches to Understanding the demand for Transit. Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group Meeting presented by Christopher Wornum Cambridge Systematics, Inc. June 28, 2007.

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new approaches to understanding the demand for transit

New Approaches to Understanding the demand for Transit

Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented toRegional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group Meeting

presented byChristopher WornumCambridge Systematics, Inc.

June 28, 2007

market based planning process from private sector to public sector
Market-Based Planning ProcessFrom Private Sector to Public Sector

Toyota

Private Sector

Mobility Services

door to door service consistent customer experience
Door-to-Door ServiceConsistent Customer Experience

Work

Home

Relative Importance

Walk

Ride

Wait

Arrival

Walk

Seat

Errands

Pay

Board

  • Access
  • Emergencies
  • Modes
  • Schedule
  • Distance
  • Esthetics
  • Barriers
  • Alternative modes
  • Weather
  • Reliability
  • Way Finding
  • Transfer
  • Speed
  • Comfort
  • Productive
  • Low floor
  • Queuing
  • Speed
  • Availability
  • Comfort
  • Privacy
  • Fare
  • Convenience
  • Transfer
  • Headway
  • Arrival information
  • Shelter Comfort
  • Safety
  • Distance
  • Esthetics
  • Barriers
  • Weather
roadmap from market research to service planning
RoadmapFrom Market Research to Service Planning

ServicePlanning Tool(SPT)

Service Planning

(Product Development)

TransitCompetitivenessFactor(TCF)

Understand Customers

Market Segmentation

Mode Choice Analysis

Branding &Marketing

Competitive Positioning

Understand Markets

Origin – Destination Volumes

Other Travel Market Conditions

determine traveler attitudes
Determine Traveler Attitudes

Need for Flexibility and Speed

Personal Travel Experience

Personal Safety

Concern for theNatural Environment

Value of Time & Productivity

Transportation Costs

Crowds

Stress

slide6

Key Attitude Number 2

Sensitivity to PersonalTravel Experience

100%

  • The people who ride the trolley are like me
    • The people who ride city buses are like me
    • The people who ride the Coaster commuter train are like me
    • I would (not) prefer to drive than to be driven
    • I don’t mind delays as long as I am comfortable
    • Generally I make the same types of trips at the same times of day
    • The type of transportation that people use (does not) reflect their social status

96%

67%

27%

22%

10%

8%

slide7

Less Sensitive

Indifferent

More Sensitive

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Range of Attitudes for all Potential CustomersAll Market Segments Combined

Universal Design Service AttributesImportant for Entire Service Population

Flexibility & Speed

Personal TravelExperience

Personal Safety

Concern for Environment

Time &Productivity

Cost

Crowds

Stress

structure of market segments san diego region
Structure of Market SegmentsSan Diego Region

“Need for flexibility and speed”

Less Need For Flexibility & Speed

“Sensitivity to

personal safety”

Low

Sensitivity to

Personal Safety

High

Sensitivity to Personal Safety

Cautious Runabouts

Intrepid Trekkers

Residents in SANDAG Service Area

More Need For Flexibility & Speed

“Personal travel experience”

HighSensitivity toExperience

LowSensitivity toExperience

High Sensitivity toExperience

MediumSensitivity toExperience

LowSensitivity to

Experience

Flexible Flyers

ConventionalCruisers

Easy Goers

Road Runners

quantifying tradeoffs how much do flexible flyers value different options
Quantifying Tradeoffs How Much Do Flexible Flyers Value Different Options?

Save 5 minute walking access time

Save 5 minute parking search time

Guaranteed seat

No transfer

Save 5 minute driving access

Shuttle

Reduce cost by 50 cents

Save 5 minute in-vehicle travel time

Having real time arrival information

Improve peak headway by 5 min

Improve off-peak headway by 5 min

strategic roadmap understanding markets
Strategic RoadmapUnderstanding Markets

ServicePlanning Tool(SPT)

Understand Customers

Market Segmentation

Mode Choice Analysis

Competitive Positioning

Existing Assets

Local governmentcooperation

Financial resources

service planning tool
Service Planning Tool

Travel Demand Model Output

Segmentation & SEM

Segment-Specific Mode Choice Models

Trip Tables

Base LOS

IVTT

Frequencies

Transit Network

Parking Supply

Fares

Seat Availability

Segment Locations & Characteristics

Quantify Tradeoffs between Service Characteristics

Service Planning Tool

ArcGIS User Interface

Network Structure

Performance Variables

Customer Experience

Census Data or Travel Model Socioeconomics

Ridership

Mode

Peak vs. Off-peak

Trip Purpose

strategic roadmap understanding markets12
Strategic RoadmapUnderstanding Markets

TransitCompetitivenessFactor(TCF)

Understand Customers

Market Segmentation

Mode Choice Analysis

Understand Markets

Origin – Destination Volumes

Other Travel Market Conditions

understanding markets identify places where transit is competitive
Understanding MarketsIdentify Places Where Transit is Competitive

Trip Intensity

  • Trip generation & attraction
  • Time of day
  • Trip purpose

Competitive Advantage for Transit

  • Congestion
  • Transit priority
  • Parking scarcity and Price

Concentration of Target Market Segments

transit competitiveness factor tcf each factor weighted by ability to generate transit trips
Transit Competitiveness Factor (TCF)Each Factor Weighted by Ability to Generate Transit Trips

Transit Competitiveness Factor

Transportation Land Use Factors

Customer Types

Trip Purposes

  • Trip Density
  • Parking Search Time
  • Parking Cost
  • Auto Access, Egress Time
  • Congestion
  • Pedestrian Friendliness
  • Road Runners
  • Cautious Runabouts
  • Intrepid Trekkers
  • Flexible Flyers
  • Conventional Cruisers
  • Easy Goers
  • Work
  • School
  • Other
slide15

Transit Competitive

Origin TCF – Santa Clara County

slide16

Destination TCF Transit competitive threshold = 30 jobs per gross acre

Transit Competitive

11 percent of trips go to transit competitive destinations