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  1. The Confluence of Water Resources and National SecurityWhere, why and how policy currents converge. Daene McKinney & Steve Pitman Transboundary Water Resources

  2. Water in the landscape (above and below ground) with current or potential value to the community and the environment. - Western Australia Water and Rivers Commission Condition of a nation’s safety from threats, especially threats from external sources. - McGraw Hill Online Water Resources National Security

  3. Water Resources professionals: When and how will national security affect water resources? National Security professionals: When and how will water affect national security? Two Perspectives:

  4. Analysis: Why, when & how have links developed? CAUSES Can we predict future occurrences? INDICATORS

  5. River Basin Case Studies • Jordan • Syria, Israel, Jordan • Nile • Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt • Indus • India, Pakistan • Tigris-Euphrates • Turkey, Syria, Iraq

  6. Jordan Basin • Post WWI – Mandates • 1948 – State of Israel • 1950’s – plans • 1960’s – conflicts • 1967 – Six Day War • PLO attacks • 1980’s threats • 1990’s treaties • 2000’s 2nd Intifadeh www.glowa-jordan-river.de

  7. Jordan Basin • Politically charged • Population 10M+ • double in 30 years • Already “water stressed” • Boundary issues • Allocation inequities www.glowa-jordan-river.de

  8. Nile Basin • Interested in 3 of 9 basin countries • Egypt • Lowest riparian • Most dependent • Most powerful • Big US aid recipient • Ethiopia • Contributes most • Uses least • Poorest • Sudan – in between www.thewaterpage.com

  9. Nile Basin • Colonial cash-crop economies • 1929 Treaty • Century Storage Scheme • 1959 Treaty • Aswan High Dam • Cold War politics • Civil wars www.thewaterpage.com

  10. Indus Basin • 1859-1915 - British build canals for flood control and irrigation • 1947 – Partition • India – key headwaters • Pakistan – bulk of canals and farmland • 1948 – India cuts flow, Pakistani crops fail, Pakistanis call for war • 1952-60 – World Bank mediation • Indus Water Treaty earthtrends.wri.org www.iucn.org

  11. Tigris-Euphrates Basin • Earliest water conflicts • Turkey • Source of both rivers • GAP - $30B project • Syria very dependent on Euphrates • Iraq totally dependent on both rivers • 1975 – Crisis between Iraq and Syria • 1990 – Ataturk Dam earthtrends.wri.org

  12. AnalysisNational Security-Water Resources Linkage Common Factors: • Arid areas w/ irrigated agriculture • Power imbalance (economic/military) • Presence of non-water disputes • Non-joint development • Outside influences*

  13. CAUSESNational Security-Water Resources Linkage • Jordan Basin • Enmity exists before water disputes • One state alters status by occupying territory • Nile Basin • Lower riparian completely dependent • Powerful country publicly announces link • Indus Basin • Water policy of one state affects interest of lower riparian • Tigris-Euphrates • Actions fuel unease over future possibilities

  14. (Old) INDICATORSNational Security-Water Resources Linkage • Unilateral development of international river –Postel & Wolf • Change in political boundaries creating new riparians-Wolf • Existing mechanisms unable to cope with changes -Wolf

  15. Postel & Wolf : Foreign Policy – September/October 2001

  16. (New) INDICATORSNational Security-Water Resources Linkage • Previous retrospective indicators • Unilateral development of a basin • Change in political boundaries creating new riparians • New predictive indicators • Significant non-water-related tensions exist in the basin • At least one basin state’s water resources are vulnerable or nearly fully utilized

  17. Indicating Linkages Between Water Resources and National Security • At least one indicator from each column implies conditions are present for a water resources-national security policy linkage • Three or four indicators present signifies higher likelihood of policy linkage • Uzbekistan found itself in the position where all four applied, so what did they do?

  18. Syr Darya Basin

  19. Uzbek National Security Policy Related to Water • Water became a National Security Policy issue • Decision taken to improve water resources management • Two new reservoirs built and water distribution system modernized • Move to new water management regime to meet water demand • Invest hard currency • Relinquish water management authority • Provided sufficient new storage to capture winter Kyrgyz releases • Uncoupled the basin-wide interconnection between the countries • Provided a secure source of water for economic development

  20. References: • Cooley, J.K., The War over Water, Foreign Policy, Issue 58, 3-26, 1984. • Dimitrov, R.S., Water, Conflict and Security: A Conceptual Minefield, Society and Natural Resources, Vol. 15, 677-691, 2002. • Elhance, A.P, Hydropolitics in the 3-rd World: Conflict and Cooperation in International River basins, United States Institute for Peace, 1999. • Feitelson, E., The ebb and flow of Arab-Israeli water conflicts: are past confrontations likely to resurface?, Water Policy 2, 343-363, 2000. • Gleick, P.H., Water Conflict Chronology, Pacific Institute (online), 2003. • Gleick, Water and Conflict: Fresh Water Resources and International Security, International Security, Vol. 18, No. 1, 79-112, 1993. • Klare, M.K., Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, Metropolitan Books, 2001. • Lowi, M.R., Bridging the Divide: Transboundary Resource Disputes and The Case of West Bank Water, International Security, Vol. 18, No. 1, 113-138, 1993. • Postel, S.L. & Wolf, A.T., Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, Sep/Oct, 60-67, 2001. • Starr, J.R., Water Wars, Foreign Policy, Issue 82, 17-37, 1991. • Wolf, A.T., International Water Conflict Resolution: Lessons from Comparative Analysis, Water Resources Development, Vol. 13, No. 3, 333-365, 1997. • Wolf, A.T. et al, International River Basins of the World, Water Resources Development, Vol. 15, No. 4, 387-427, 1999.

  21. earthtrends.wri.org

  22. www.iucn.org/themes/wani/eatlas

  23. earthtrends.wri.org

  24. www.iucn.org/themes/wani/eatlas