Social Dynamics in the Age of the Web Bernardo A. Huberman HP Labs social dynamics Bruegel, Peter the Younger. Village Feast traditional methods accurate but laborious facebook a massive social network used by millions of students and enterprise employees our analysis
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Bernardo A. Huberman
Bruegel, Peter the Younger. Village Feast
traditional methods accurate but laborious
who do users communicate with, and when?
S. Golder, D. Wilkinson and B. A. Huberman, 3rd Int’l Conference on Communities and Technologies. June 28-30, 2007.
Empirical analysis of real-world examples lead to the discovery of social dynamics on a massive scale, including consensus formation, collective categorization, and temporal patterns.
(Facebook analysis, 362 million emails among 4.2 million users-26 months)
Robust global patterns are plain when viewed in aggregate, but no individual could observe this phenomenon.
in the information age, the one scarce resource is attention
very valuable, hard to obtain and rather ephemeral
--- thus the intense messaging, from spam to news to advertising
two big problems for content providers, news and marketing people
information poor environments
very valuable, ephemeral, and hard to obtain
a way of drawing attention to specific products/news without broadcasting
an example of information flows inside a large social network
a study of15 million recommendations from amazon.com
J. Lefkovec, L. Adamic and B. A. Huberman, ACMTransactions on the Web, Vol. 1, 5 (2007)
question: how does novelty interact with collective attention?
answer: in a highly nonlinear but predictable way
the allocation of attention among items is universal
distribution of final digg numbers of 29684 stories
lognormal, as predicted
since attention depends on the order in which links are presented, we can dynamically reconfigure a site so as to maximize the number of hits it receives
story “half life”: 69 minutes
F. Wu and B. Huberman, “Novelty and collective attention,” Proc. Natl. Acad. USA, Vol.105, 17599 (2007)
knowledge of the determinants of attention can be used to dynamically configure websites so as to maximize the number of hits
or decide what to present so as to maximize the user’s utility
an interesting tension between popularity and novelty as drivers of attention
example: should most popular have higher ranking than most novel?
opinions about new products
and institutions, political candidates, companies
people, movies, ideas
how do opinions form and evolve?
similar to another paradox: why do people vote?
why do people bother to post opinions? (millions do)
by contributing her own opinion to an existing opinion pool, a person affects the average by a marginal amoung that diminishes with the size of the pool (Wu and Huberman)
average essembly.com voting, EXn, as a function of the number of votes, n.
sample average fraction of positive and negative votes in Jyte.com as a function of the number of votes n. evident polarization
consider n people having rated an item with values
if the (n+1) person rates the item, the average will move to:
so that the absolute change in rating will be:
in large groups influence means making the numerator large
average rating of 16,454 books on Amazon with more than 20 reviews.
softening of views over time.
average deviation of Amazon ratings. 16,454 reviews of books with more than 20 reviews. people who disagree with current opinion tend to be the ones expressing their views