U.S. National Elections, 2008 David King September 22, 2008 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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U.S. National Elections, 2008 David King September 22, 2008 PowerPoint Presentation
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U.S. National Elections, 2008 David King September 22, 2008

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  1. U.S. National Elections, 2008David KingSeptember 22, 2008 1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system. 2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes 3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress 4. Likely foreign & defense advisors in an Obama or McCain administration

  2. 1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system. Consider: election districts are “single member” districts. Consider: States in the Electoral College are “winner take all.” Remember: Whomever gets the most votes (a plurality) wins. Imagine an election within a district with the following outcomes: Mackerson 9% Aquino 18% Party 1 Party 2 Patterson 48% Patterson 21% Hartpense 11% Grovner 27% Grovner 52% Philips 14%

  3. 2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes * Political polls are largely irrelevant, and usually wrong * Electoral College is based on Congressional Delegations (535+3) http://wiki.abulsme.com/2008_Electoral_College_Prediction

  4. 2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes * Political polls are largely irrelevant, and usually wrong * Electoral College is based on Congressional Delegations (535+3) http://www.electoral-vote.com/

  5. Obama – InTrade price, September 22, 2008

  6. 3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress

  7. Democrats Control the 111th Congress – InTrade price, September 22, 2008

  8. 4. Obama – Foreign & Defense Policy Inner Circle Denis McDonough Anthony Lake Susan Rice Sarah Sewell Richard Danzig Samantha Power

  9. 4. McCain – Foreign & Defense Policy Inner Circle Randy Scheunemann Robert Kagan Stephen E. Biegun Richard S. Williamson James Woolsey

  10. Keep in mind: The election results will likely have a significant effect on the “mood” around policy – and will affect operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Darfur An Obama administration will be more “internationalist,” and A McCain administration more “nationalist” and “realist.” The U.S. Congress will be controlled by Democrats, so expect a Strong opposition if McCain wins, and Coordination if Obama wins Looming over everything – the financial crisis on our horizon, and the costs of campaign promises.

  11. U.S. National Elections, 2008David KingSeptember 22, 2008 1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system. 2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes 3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress 4. Likely foreign & defense advisors in an Obama or McCain administration