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Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information . Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Contents. Project Area and Background Interconnection of Everett, Seattle and Tacoma Project process

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modeling urban water management using climate change information

Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information

Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer

University of Washington

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

contents
Contents
  • Project Area and Background
    • Interconnection of Everett, Seattle and Tacoma
  • Project process
    • Linked models
  • Results of Reservoir Management model
    • Annual minimum storage
  • Impacts on planning process
    • Existing plans may not be sufficient
tacoma seattle intertie

Revised from Nelligan-Doran, 1999

Lake Washington

Lake Youngs

SEATTLE

Cedar Reservoir

SKCRWA

TSI

Pipeline 5

HAH Reservoir

Pipeline 1

Pipeline 4

N

TACOMA

Pipeline 2

Tacoma Seattle Intertie
everett seattle intertie

Everett

Pipelines 2-4

Pipeline 5

Spada Lake Reservoir

Clearview

Pipeline

Proposed ESI Alignment

Snohomish County

King County

TPL 1

TPL 2

Tolt Reservoir

Seattle

N

ESSL

Everett Seattle Intertie
planning and management analysis
Planning and Management Analysis
  • 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands
  • 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows
    • PCM
    • ECHAM
  • Status quo system configuration
  • Tacoma Seattle Intertie
  • Everett Seattle Intertie
overall analysis process
Overall Analysis Process

Precip and temp

DHSVM

Historic vs Simulated

Downscaled GCM

CRYSTAL model

  • Meteorological data
  • Hydrology model
  • Calibration
  • Climate Shift
  • Impacts Evaluation
crystal cascade regional yield simulation and analysis model
CRYSTALCascade Regional Yield Simulation and Analysis Model
  • Simulation model of Puget Sound water supply
  • Considers future demands, policies, supplies and infrastructures
  • Uses weekly time step
  • Developed in Powersim
planning and management analysis16
Planning and Management Analysis
  • 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands
  • 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows
    • PCM
    • ECHAM
  • Status quo system configuration
  • Tacoma Seattle Intertie
  • Everett Seattle Intertie
results
Results
  • Compare
    • minimum annual storage
    • number of shortfalls
    • duration of shortfalls
  • Reliability
    • 43 year record
    • any shortfall is considered a failure
    • no demand modification
slide24

Annual Reliability

76%

83%

23%

40%

100%

95%

23%

38%

Status Quo

TS Intertie

TS & ES Intertie

planning implications
Planning Implications
  • Ongoing regional planning efforts are important
  • TSI will provide only a portion of supply needed
  • Climate change results imply regional needs for cooperation and new approaches
  • Without new supply or dramatic changes in demand, system reliability will be unacceptable