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European Energy Security and Russia: are we focussing on the right issues?. Professor Jonathan Stern Director of Gas Research Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Society for International Development Amsterdam, April 28, 2008. OIES* Natural Gas Research Programme.
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Professor Jonathan Stern
Director of Gas Research
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Society for International Development
Amsterdam, April 28, 2008
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Gas-OPEC: a distraction from important issues of Russian gas supply to Europe, Jonathan Stern
The Potential Contribution of Natural Gas to Sustainable Development in South Eastern Europe, Aleksandar Kovacevic
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Ukraine’s Gas Sector, Simon Pirani
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These issues periodically debated over the past 40 years, especially in relation to Russia
Can Europe obtain adequate oil and gas supplies in the 2010s and at what price?
Europe needs to prioritise problems and solutions
18% of imports and 8% of demand in 2006
35% of imports and 32% of demand in 2006
18% of demand in 2006
27% of “Europe 34” demand in 2006
Gazprom’s response to unreliable transit through Ukraine and Belarus is diversification of pipeline routes
Can Baltic opposition halt – or only delay – development?
Bulgaria-Serbia-Italy route is established
a northern route – Nord Stream
a central route – Ukraine/Belarus
a southern route – Blue Stream/South Stream
Gazprom be able to “arbitrage” between the routes, the power of individual transit countries will be much reduced; security will be improved; but still needs an international transit regime
Can Russia compete in Atlantic Basin LNG? Not easily, quickly or very profitably
No Russian pipeline gas before the late 2010s
This is likely to mean no new long term contracts for Europe; Russian gas supplies will be limited to 180-200 Bcm/year
Future gas “security” is about motivations of, and relationships with, Europe’s suppliers
A key part of the “4th Corridor” to Europe
Diversity does not always = security
The “great gas game” in Central Asia is between Russia and China; Europe (and the US) are possible future players
New regas capacity increasingly competes with North America and Asia for LNG
These issues are much more important than the (real or imagined) threat of a Gas-OPEC
The key question facing European gas markets is: from where will substantial additional gas post-2015 and especially post-2020 be available?
At present the answer looks like: not from Russia or many other current major suppliers
CONCLUSION: Europe faces longer term gas supply uncertainty
WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL INCREMENTAL GAS SUPPLIES, MOST COUNTRIES WILL NEED TO RETAIN/DEVELOP COAL WITH DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES FOR CARBON TARGETS; THE BEST HOPE FOR CARBON REDUCTION BEFORE 2020 IS A RENEWABLES/GAS COMBINATION
ISSUES RECEIVING A LOT OF FOCUS:
ISSUES NEEDING MORE FOCUS: