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IES. energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector. Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia . Moscow May 2005. IES. Share of FEC branches in national economy of Russia in 2003 , (%).

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slide1

IES

energy strategy of Russia(ES – 2020)Eastvector

Vitaly Bushuev

- General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia

Moscow

May 2005

slide2

IES

Share of FEC branches in national economy of Russia in 2003, (%)

In GDP a share of FEC 25,4 %, including:

In export a share of FEC 56,3 %, including:

Receipts of tax and customs payments in the consolidated budget. A share of FEC of 32,8 %, including:

Petroleum

Gas

Electropower

Coal

slide3

IES

Energy streams of Russia ( million tons of conditional fuel – mln t c.f.)

Export

Coal 162.8

Coal 33,9

Petroleum 269,3

Gas 213,3

Gas 684.1

Natural fuel

Extraction and manufacture

1513,1

Autogasoline, diesel fuel, fuel black oil 82,0

Other mineral oil 24,9

electric power 4,4

Petroleum 539,6

Hydroelectricity 55,5

Nuclear Energy 44,1

Other 27,0

Resources - all

Coal 143,1

Petroleum & mineral oil 59,7

Gas 473,7

Coal 13,0

Petroleum 8,9

Gas 7,8

Import

Autogasoline 38,4, diesel fuel 34,8, fuel black oil 39,7electric power 95,3Other 27,0

Thermal power plants & Boiler-houses 236,1

Other receipts

Internal consumption

Russia sends on the world market more than 40 % of all power resources (from them more than 1/4 falls to crude petroleum and natural gas).

In structure of internal consumption 1/2 falls to natural gas and 50 % of this consumption falls to fuel needs of power stations and boiler-houses.

slide4

IES

Forecast dynamics of growth of GDP and consumption of energy Russia for the period till 2020 and in relation to a level of 2000

Growth of GDP and consumption of energy at specific power consumption 2000

Share making savings of energy an increasing result by 2000, including technological and organizational (ТиО) and structural (С)

Forecast consumption of energy without change of structure of economy

Forecast consumption of energy

Year All

Change of structure of economy and technological measures of economy of energy will reduce specific consumption of energy of GDP by 26-27 % by 2010 and from 45 up to 55 % by 2020. Thus up to 1/2 growth of economy may be received due to change of its structure without increase of expenses of energy, 20 more % will be given with the technological savings of energy and about 1/3 gains of GDP will demand increase of a power consumption.

slide5

ES - 2020

Strategic reference points

1. Energy safety

2. Energy efficiency

3. Budgetary efficiency of energy

4. Ecological safety

slide6

Energy politics of Russia

  • Using bowels
  • 2. A home market
  • 3. Fuel and energy balance
  • 4. A regional politics
  • 5. An external energy politics
  • 6. An innovational politics
slide7

An external energy politics

  • Maintenance of competitiveness in the traditional markets (Europe)
  • 2. Diversify structures of export
  • ( the mineral oil, the liquefied natural gas, the electric power)
  • 3. Diversify commodity markets
  • ( growth of a share of export to the countries ATR:
  • Petroleum about 3 % up to 30 %,
  • Gas about 0 % up to 15 %,
  • Development of the market of USA)
slide8

IES

The forecast of a gain of stocks of petroleum in Russia till 2020 on regions

Programs and should provide conditions of licensing of bowels expanded reproduction of mineral-raw-material base:

Gain of stocks of petroleum in quantity 7,5-10 billion т.

Thus probable stocks and resources of the distributed fund in the basic areas of an oil recovery may provide reproduction of mineral-raw-material base the nearest 10-15 years no more than on 30-40 %.

Other stocks should be added due to investigation and development of new territories and water areas of Russia. Attraction of investments in volume 45-47 billion is necessary

The main areas of a gain of stocks of hydrocarbon fuel material will be West-Siberian, Leno-Tungus and Timano-Pechersk provinces.

Far East (Sakhalin)East-Siberian European partWest-Siberian

Optimum variant

FarEast (Sakhalin)East-Siberian European partWest-Siberian

Moderate variant

slide9

IES

Resource base of the gas industry (the reconnoitered stocks of gas), trillion cubic m

In total on Russia – 47,2 trillion cubic m

Open Society " Gazprom " - supervises about 60 % of stocks of gas of Russia

slide10

IES

Manufacture of initial fuel and energy resources in Russia

Moderate variantOptimum variant

mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

Nuclear Energy, billion kwh

mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

Hydroelectri-citi, billion kwh

mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

Coal, mln t

Gas, billion cubic m

Petroleum, mln t

slide11

IES

The forecast of an oil recovery in Russia till 2020, million т

Attraction of investments in extraction in volume $130-135 billion is necessary

The factors determining prospects of branch

Quality of the prepared raw-material base

Level of the world prices for petroleum

Tax policy of the state

Attraction of necessary volumes of investments

In total on Russia

Optimum variant

Moderate variant

Critical variant

Far East

European part

West-Siberian

East-Siberian

slide13

IES

The synthetic long-term forecast of the prices for petroleum

slide14

IES

Territorial structure of extraction of gas (billion cubic м)

Optimum variant

European partWest-Siberian

East-SiberianFarEast

Moderate variant

(the forecast)

Essentially the territorial structure of extraction of gas will change: the share of Eastern Siberia and Far East considerably will increase at reduction of densities of Western Siberia.

slide15

IES

Export of energy resources from Russia

Export of all, mln t c.f.

Dominant exported energy resources during all period petroleum and gas will stay.

Optimum variantModerate variant

Petroleum & mineral oil, mln t

Gas, billion cubic m

Electric power, billion kwh

Coal, mln t c.f.

circuits oil and gas mains

IES

Circuitsoil- and gas mains

Circuits oil mains in territory of Russia

The plan of creation gas mains networks in Northeast Asia

Circuits gas mains in territory of Russia

Directions of gas streams

Planned routes of pipelines

Possible routes of pipelines

slide17

IES

Pipeline projects in Eastern Siberia and on Far East

Oil pipelines working

Gas mains working

Oil pipelines projected

Gas mains projected

slide18

IES

The basic inter-regional streams of the Russian coal

Consumption of own resources

Negative Balance of export -

Positive import

Freight traffics of coal, mln t c.f.(numerator-2002, denominator-2020)

Essential change of territorial structure of extraction and consumption of coal causes increase of inter-regional deliveries of firm fuel in a direction the East -West about 65 million т in 2002 up to 90 million т in 2010 г and 130 million т in 2020 г

slide19

IES

Structure of manufacture of the electric power in 2020 and priorities of territorial development of electric power industry (optimistic variant)

Increase of manufacture on coal ТЭС and the decision of a problem of closed capacities of the Siberian hydroelectric power station

European part

932 billion kwh

Siberian and FarEast433 billion kwh

Economy of gas in the European part 7-8 billion cubic m per one year

European part

FarEast

Siberian

Hydroelectric power station, ТЭС and gas thermal power stations in cities

The maximal development of the atomic power station; Modernisation ТЭС on gas; development ГТГУ-ГТУ

ТЭС at a corner and water-power engineering

slide20

IES

Wind and geothermal energy of Russia

Wind energy of Russia

Geothermal energy of Russia

slide21

IES

The forecast of investment needs of a fuel and energy complex (billion US dollars)

Petroleum industry

The gas industry

The coal industry

Electric power industry

The total amount of investments in reconstruction and development of power sector may make from 260 up to 300 billion dollars in 2001-2010 and from 400 up to 510 billion dollars the next decade. The share of a fuel and energy complex in the general investments of Russia will make 33-35 % in 2001-2005, will decrease up to 31-33 % in 2006-2010 and up to 20-24 % to 2020.

slide22

IES

Dynamics of emissions of hotbed gases and firm substances (mln t)

The level of emissions appropriate to obligations on Кiot to the report

billion t equivalent

Optimum variant

Moderate variant

Volume of quotas for Russia for the first budgetary period 2008-2012

Emissions of firm substances

The volume of emissions of hotbed gases in fuel and energy sphere to 2010 will make 75-80 % from a level 1990 and even to 2020 will not reach this level.