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THE TRANSCAUCASUS, TURKEY, & IRAN PowerPoint Presentation
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THE TRANSCAUCASUS, TURKEY, & IRAN

THE TRANSCAUCASUS, TURKEY, & IRAN

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THE TRANSCAUCASUS, TURKEY, & IRAN

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  1. THE TRANSCAUCASUS,TURKEY, & IRAN PS 555

  2. ADMINISTRATIVE • We’ll stop early so you can evaluate me and the course • Please take it seriously • What did you like? • Readings, assignments, discussion, web, powerpoint • What would improve the course? • Seniors see me if you have questions • Read Odom and Dujarric • CIS chapter has a lot about each conflict

  3. NEWS

  4. TRANSCAUCASUS Discuss culture, general themes, situation

  5. TURKEY • Looks both East and West • Decline of Ottoman Empire • WWI and the Ataturk • Modernization & Westernization • The Effects of the Cold War • Strategic Location?

  6. POST-COLD WAR • From a Northern Monolithic Enemy... • To Destitute and Fragile Proto-states • Decline in Turkey’s Status in the West • Turkey Still Linked with West • Economic Links • Security Links • Social Links (among elite) • So Why Worry about the Transcaucasus?

  7. TURKEY AND THE TRANSCAUCASUS • Turkish Involvement Until 1920s • Byzantium and Ottoman Empire • Cultural Ties up to Revolution • Soviet Rule a Mixed Blessing • Two Stages Since Soviet Collapse: • Establishing Ties (Especially with Az.) • Loss of Influence to Russia • Nature of Historical Ties?

  8. TURKEY & GEORGIA • Georgia Needed Turkey for Balance • Despite Possibilities for Conflict... • Religion • Territorial Claims (Both Ways) • Turkish Affinity for Abkhaz (Coethnic Turks) • Turkish Affinity for Ajars • What Could Have Happened? • What Could Happen?

  9. TURKEY & AZERBAIJAN • Azerbaijanis ARE Turkish, BUT • Turks are Sunni • Azerbaijanis are Shia (Persian Influence) • Soviet Rule Separated the Cultures Some • During WWI & Revolution • Ottoman “Army of Islam” fought for Azeris • But Soon Turned Attention Elsewhere… • Close Contact after Breakup • President Elchibey Favored Turkish Model • Business and Educational Exchanges

  10. TURKEY & AZERBAIJAN • Aliyev deposed Elchibey • Closer Ties with Russia and Iran • Decline in Turkish Influence • Barriers to Closer Ties • Aliyev • Geography • Nakhichevan • Georgia • Armenia • What Could Have Happened? • What Could Happen?

  11. TURKEY & ARMENIA • Problematic • Religion • 1915 Massacre of Armenians • Act of War vs. Genocide • Armenian Collusion with PKK • Azeri-Armenian War: Tough Choice • What Could Have Happened? • Any Chance for Improved Relations?

  12. TURKEY & RUSSIA • Pipeline Politics • Russia may have helped overthrow Elchibey • Russian Fears of Turkish Nationalism • Russian Influence Still a Mixed Blessing • What Could Happen Between Them? • What Could Bring Turkey In?

  13. IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY • Rejection of Western Model, Embrace of Islam as the Guide to Policy • But Increasingly Pragmatic, Nationalist • In Transcausacus: • Position of Weakness • Prefers Russian Control over Turks or Azeri Nationalism • Policy: Eschew Entanglements

  14. A LITTLE HISTORY • Decline of Persia • Between British and Russian Empires • Restoration of Independence in 1921 • Wrong Side in WWII • British Control of Oil • USSR to the North • US to Counter UK and USSR • Worked Until the Revolution

  15. THE NEW IRAN • Anti-Western/US • Challenge Neighbors • Terrorism as a Tool • Only Shia Nation-State • Still Nationalistic • No Immediate Threats • Weak, but Still a Power • Pipeline?

  16. IRAN AND T-C • Persia was a Power in T-C • Religious Ties with Azerbaijan (& GG) • Excluded During Soviet Rule • Azerbaijan Important Now • Ethnic Ties • Link to CIS Transport Grid • But… • Azeri’s More Secular • Azerbaijan Has Its Own Oil • Better Under Aliyev

  17. IRAN, T-C, & RUSSIA • Russia Wants Good Relations with Iran • But Wants It Out of Near-Abroad • Russian Control “Second Best” for Iran • The Kurdish Problem • Armenia and Iran have Supported the PPK • What Could Happen?

  18. CONFLICTS IN THE TRANSCAUCASUS TRANSCAUCASUS

  19. THREE MAJOR CONFLICTS • SOUTH OSSETIA • ABKHAZIA • NAGORNO-KARABAKH

  20. SOUTH OSSETIA • 1989-1992: rise of nationalism and the minority (and Russian) reaction. Elite warlords vs. Gamsakhurdia • Russian Influence?

  21. ABKHAZIA • 1991-(Sept 1993) • 100k(Ru + G + Ab) • Mixed in with power struggle • Russia’s Role • Co’s hated Schev. • Supported rebels? • Supported Gamsukhardia • Brought in to keep peace • 1994 G joined CIS • International Forces • Turkey? • Iran?

  22. NAGORNO-KARABAKH • 1988- ? • Part of Az • But mostly Armenian • Wanted to secede • Russia • Why help Armenia? • N-K? • Armenia’s advantages • Azeri Hope…

  23. THE NEW GREAT GAME

  24. EVALUATIONS