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International Air Transport Consultancy. Air Service Issues at North Dakota EAS Communities. Presented to:. Presented by:. The North Dakota EAS Communities. David Dague. November 28, 2001. Post 9/11 Air Service Changes.

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Slide1 l.jpg

International Air Transport Consultancy

Air ServiceIssues at

North Dakota

EAS Communities

Presented to:

Presented by:

The North Dakota EAS Communities

David Dague

November 28, 2001


Slide2 l.jpg

Post 9/11

Air Service Changes


Slide3 l.jpg
Among the Major Carriers, United Airlines Had the Largest Service Decline and Southwest Had the Least

% Change in Daily Scheduled Seats

Pre September 11th vs. November 2001

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


Midwest express leads the national carriers in post 9 11 service declines l.jpg
Midwest Express Leads the National Carriers in Service Decline and Southwest Had the LeastPost 9/11 Service Declines

% Change in Daily Scheduled Seats

Pre September 11th vs. November 2001

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


The us airline industry was in a gradual state of decline before september 11th l.jpg
The US Airline Industry Was in a Gradual State of Decline Before September 11th

Change in Load Factors From Prior Year

US Major Airlines

Source: Carrier SEC Filings.


Even with the federal airline bailout the financial results for the 3rd qtr were disastrous l.jpg
Even with the Federal Airline Bailout the Before September 11thFinancial Results for the 3rd Qtr Were Disastrous

Source: Airline SEC Fillings.


Large and small hub airports have incurred most of the service reductions since 9 11 l.jpg
Large and Small Hub Airports Have Incurred Before September 11thMost of the Service Reductions Since 9/11

% Change in Daily Scheduled Seats From US Airports

Pre September 11th vs. November 2001

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes.


The reduction in flying after september 11th is equivalent to grounding 800 jet aircraft l.jpg
The Reduction in Flying After September 11th Before September 11this Equivalent to Grounding 800 Jet Aircraft

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes, USDOT, Form41


Slide9 l.jpg
Nonstop Service Operated With Hushkitted Stage 3 Narrow Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

% Change in Daily Departures by U.S Airlines

Pre September 11th vs. November 2001

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes.


Slide10 l.jpg
The Majority of Post 9/11 Service Reductions Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11at Hub Airports Have Occurred in the Early Morning and Late Evening Hours

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


The northeast region had the largest decline in capacity after 9 11 l.jpg

Mountain Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

-15.7%

Northeast

-20.5%

Central

-14.4%

Pacific

-16.9%

Great Lakes

-15.6%

Southeast

-11.1%

Southwest

-12.6%

Florida

-9.2%

The Northeast Region Had the Largest Decline in Capacity After 9/11

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


In the central region north dakota had the smallest decline in capacity post 9 11 l.jpg

-5.7% Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

-17.5%

-25.4%

-18.1%

-8.6%

-11.8%

-13.6%

In the Central Region, North Dakota Had the Smallest Decline in Capacity Post 9/11

Change in Daily Seat DeparturesPre-September 11th vs. November 2001

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


North dakota s post 9 11 air service changes l.jpg
North Dakota's Post 9/11 Air Service Changes Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


United s hubs are the hardest hit in terms of post 9 11 service reductions l.jpg
United's Hubs are the Hardest Hit in Terms of Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11Post 9/11 Service Reductions

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


Service changes from northwest hubs l.jpg

Minneapolis Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

Detroit

Memphis

Service Changes From Northwest Hubs

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


Service changes from united hubs l.jpg

Chicago ORD Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

San Francisco

Washington IAD

Denver

Los Angeles

Service Changes From United Hubs

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


Service changes from delta air lines hubs l.jpg

Salt Lake City Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

Cincinnati

New York JFK

Atlanta

Dallas/Ft. Worth

Orlando

Service Changes From Delta Air Lines Hubs

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


Slide18 l.jpg

EAS Communities and Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

North Dakota

Air Service Issues


North dakota s current service pattern l.jpg
North Dakota’s Current Service Pattern Bodies Has Declined Significantly Since 9/11

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes, December 2001.


During september 2001 most of the north dakota airports performed better than the national average l.jpg
During September 2001, Most of the North Dakota Airports Performed Better than the National Average

September Passenger Comparison of North Dakota Commercial Service Airports

U.S. Average

-33.4%

Devils

Lake

Minot

Fargo

Bismarck

Jamestown

GrandForks

Williston

Dickinson

TotalNorthDakota

Source: Aeronautics Commission.


October 2001 passenger boardings have improved but still not near normal levels l.jpg
October 2001 Passenger Boardings Have Improved But Still Not Near Normal Levels

October Passenger Comparison of North Dakota Commercial Service Airports

U.S. Average

-22.9%

Devils

Lake

Minot

Fargo

Bismarck

Jamestown

GrandForks

Williston

Dickinson

TotalNorthDakota

Source: Aeronautics Commission.


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Initial Analysis of Air Fares Offered in the State Near Normal LevelsShows Discouraging Results for the EAS Communities

Phoenix Leisure Fares

Source: SH&E and UND Fare Tracking Database.


Devils lake top 25 o d passenger markets l.jpg
Devils Lake Top 25 O&D Passenger Markets Near Normal Levels

YE 2Q 2001

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


Dickinson top 25 o d passenger markets l.jpg
Dickinson Top 25 O&D Passenger Markets Near Normal Levels

YE 2Q 2001

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


Jamestown top 25 o d passenger markets l.jpg
Jamestown Top 25 O&D Passenger Markets Near Normal Levels

YE 2Q 2001

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


Williston top 25 o d passenger markets l.jpg
Williston Top 25 O&D Passenger Markets Near Normal Levels

YE 2Q 2001

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


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The Central Region is Devils Lake Largest Market Area, Accounting for Nearly Half of the Total Traffic

Northeast

10.6%

Great Lakes

7.6%

Mountain

8.1%

Pacific

9.7%

Central

47.6%

Southeast

4.8%

Southwest

7.8%

Florida

2.3%

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


Well over half of dickinson s passenger traffic is bound to the west l.jpg
Well Over Half of Dickinson’s Passenger Traffic Accounting for Nearly Half of the Total TrafficIs Bound to the West

Northeast

5.4%

Great Lakes

4.1%

Mountain

29.6%

Pacific

32.2%

Central

6.0%

Southwest

17.7%

Southeast

3.2%

Florida

2.0%

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


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The Central Region is Jamestown’s Lake Largest Market Area, Accounting for Over Half of the Total Traffic

Northeast

6.2%

Great Lakes

6.1%

Mountain

10.2%

Pacific

8.5%

Central

58.9%

Southeast

3.8%

Southwest

5.2%

Florida

1.1%

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


50 of williston s passenger traffic is bound to the west l.jpg
50% of Williston’s Passenger Traffic Area, Accounting for Over Half of the Total TrafficIs Bound to the West

Great Lakes

5.4%

Northeast

7.9%

Mountain

26.2%

Pacific

24.1%

Central

5.6%

Southeast

4.7%

Southwest

23.2%

Florida

2.8%

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


All of the eas communities produce a lower percentage of locally generated traffic l.jpg
All of the EAS Communities Produce a Lower Percentage of Locally Generated Traffic

Percentage of Locally Generated Traffic, YE 2Q 2001

State Average

54.6%

Source: USDOT, O&D Survey, via Database Products


Sh e has been hired to perform the north dakota statewide air service update l.jpg
SH&E Has Been Hired to Perform the Locally Generated TrafficNorth Dakota Statewide Air Service Update

  • Analyze Air Fares

  • Airline Recovery

  • Feasibility of an Intra-State Network

  • Feasibility of Expanded Service From the Four Major Airports - BIS, FAR, GFK, MOT

    • Regional Jets

    • New Hub Services

    • Expand Existing Service

  • Essential Air Service Program Enhancements

  • Other Study Topics - Create Historic Databases, Role of Charters, Load Factors, Marketing Effectiveness


Devils lake discussion topics l.jpg

National Guard, High Yields Locally Generated Traffic

Great Lakes Better than Nothing

Great Lakes EAS Stability

Professional Staff

Funds Their Own Infrastruc

Code Shares

Travel Agents

Federal Aid

Guard has Negative Impact on JMS

Service Cutbacks on Weekends

Canceled Flights/Reliability

Slow to Pay

Aircraft Comfort

Devils Lake Discussion Topics

Negatives

Positives


Dickinson discussion topics l.jpg

Frontier Connect, Term A Locally Generated Traffic

Staff

3rd Roundtrip in the Works

New Local Terminal

Safe

Federal Aid

Fuel Sales

Station Manager

Number of Flights

Fare Equity to Alternate Apts

Travel Agent Education

Aircraft Comfort

Dickinson Discussion Topics

Negatives

Positives


Jamestown discussion topics l.jpg

Reasonable Air Fares Locally Generated Traffic

Professional Staff

Profitable Route

Safe

Federal Aid

Lack of Cooperation to Increase Service

Lack of Advertising

NW Joint Fares

Cheaper to Drive/Fly to FAR/BIS

Small Plane

Travel Agent Education

Aircraft Comfort

Jamestown Discussion Topics

Negatives

Positives


Williston discussion topics l.jpg

Frontier Connect Locally Generated Traffic

Safe

Economic Benefits to the Community

Great Lakes Positive Attitude

Big Sky - Competition

Federal Aid

Fuel Sales

Shared Flights with DIK

Reliability

Aircraft Comfort

Williston Discussion Topics

Negatives

Positives


General eas discussion topics l.jpg
General EAS Discussion Topics Locally Generated Traffic

  • Funding Levels Increased?

  • Can Someone Else Provide EAS Service Statewide

    • Big Sky

    • Mesaba

    • Alpine

  • Security Issues

  • Public Confidence in Turboprops

  • 30 Seat Prop Feasibility

  • Operating Incentive Measures