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1) Look only at surrounding areas, but crime guns travel (e.g. 85% of guns used in crime in NYC from out of state) Less of a problem for suicides ...

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the effect of gun shows on gun related deaths

The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-related Deaths

Mark Duggan

Randi Hjalmarsson

Brian A. Jacob

Discussant: David Hemenway

September 2007

slide2
Contribution:

Little written @ Gun Shows

Limitations:

slide3
Underestimate Detrimental Effect

1) Look only at surrounding areas, but crime guns travel

(e.g. 85% of guns used in crime in NYC from out of state)

Less of a problem for suicides

slide4
2) Look only at effect in first few weeks – but guns durable

In CA,

For crime guns, median time-to-crime is 6 years for <24 year olds

Wintemute GJ. et al.

Life cycle of crime guns: a description based on guns recovered from young people in California. Ann Emerg Med, 2004; 43(6):733-42

In Columbine shootings, the killers obtained guns from two separate individuals who purchased the guns for them months before at gun shows.

slide5
Even for suicides, most gun suicides occur years after the gun purchase

In one study, the median time between gun purchase and suicide was 11 years

Only 13% of firearm suicides in first YEAR.

Cummings P. et al.

Association between purchase

of a handgun and homicide or suicide.

Am J Public Health, 1997; 87(6):974-8.

slide6
3) Look only at gun death, not non-fatal injuries, gun use in crime and assault, guns used to intimidate (e.g. IPV).
slide7
B) Overestimate detrimental effect

1) If gun shows largely affect timing of purchase

(due to convenience)

would buy at some other time & place

(e.g. gun store, flea market)

2) Possible benefits of guns (e.g. self defense).

slide8
Other limitations of the paper:

Treat gun shows as homogeneous (until dichotomize by size of community)

But gun shows very different (e.g. CA shows unlike AZ shows), see Wintemute GJ. Gun shows across a multi-state American gun market: observational evidence of the effects of regulatory policies. Inj Prev., 2007; 13:150-155.

slide9
Minor suggestions for the paper

Examine effects on gun suicide and non gun suicide;

You need also show results for effect on total suicide

slide10
Need better literature review
  • Up-to-date data available

E.g.-- Gun stock data (discuss 1996 study)

Hepburn L. et al. U.S. gun stock: results from the 2004 national firearms survey Inj Prev., 2007; 13:15-19.

-- Percent of suicides with a firearm (discuss 2001 data)

WISQARS provides data for 2004

-- State gun law information (discuss 2003 study)

LCAV has current data.

private guns public health
Private Guns, Public Health

2006, Univ. of Michigan

big problem with paper is the conclusion
Big problem with paper is the conclusion:

(a) “Our results provide little evidence to suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial increase in crime”

slide14
(a) “Our results provide little evidence to suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial increase in homicide”
slide15
(a) “Our results provide little evidence to suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial increase in homicide,

in that county”

slide16
(a) “Our results provide little evidence to suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial increase in homicide,

in that county, within a few weeks”

slide17
Conclusions (cont.)

(b) “Overall the results…suggest that gun shows themselves do not impose large social costs”

Actually find that for every 100 gun shows, five people die… if value people at $3 million…

Power calculations: need a 10% increase in gun death…

Given limitations, I’m shocked at any significant finding.

slide18
The big social problem with gun shows are

sales without background checks…

Policy proposals are designed not to eliminate gun shows, but to eliminate transfers without background checks at gun shows AND flea markets AND elsewhere…

True, if eliminate only gun shows, less of an effect…

Currently, for some 40% of gun transfers, no background check.

slide19
My largest concern:

Data are from California

1. 1989 CA eliminated the “gun show loophole”

-- every gun transfer requires a background check

slide20
My largest concern:

Data are from California

1. 1989 CA eliminated the “gun show loophole”

-- every gun transfer requires a background check

2. Since 1953

Waiting Period (now 10 days) for gun purchases

slide21
(a) “Our results provide little evidence to suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial increase in homicide,

in that county, within a few weeks, in states where there is no gun show loophole at gun shows, and where there is a 10-day waiting period for gun purchases.”

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