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Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty. USGS IPY 2007-2008 Kickoff Event March 30, 2007 Brenda Pierce, USGS Energy Resources Program. from L.P. White, R.S. Bishop and D.L. Gautier, 2005. GOALS FOR THE CIRCUM-ARCTIC RESOURCE APPRAISAL.

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circum arctic petroleum resource appraisal assessment in circumstances of extreme uncertainty

Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty

USGS IPY 2007-2008 Kickoff Event

March 30, 2007

Brenda Pierce, USGS Energy Resources Program

goals for the circum arctic resource appraisal
GOALS FOR THE CIRCUM-ARCTIC RESOURCE APPRAISAL
  • Comprehensive (portfolio effect)
  • Full range of uncertainty
  • Objective and unbiased
  • Transparent and reproducible
  • Compatible with our previous work
  • Results in a cost/supply context

What is the potential for additions to petroleum reserves from the Arctic?

assessment techniques are limited in unexplored basins
ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES ARE LIMITED IN UNEXPLORED BASINS
  • Discovery History Analysis
  • Prospect counting
  • Reservoir modeling
  • Geologic synthesis
  • Analog modeling
science in support of the cara
Science in Support of the CARA
  • New Map of Arctic Sedimentary Prisms
  • Classification of Arctic Petroleum Systems
  • Basin Evolution Chart
  • Analog Database
  • Analog Assessment Methodology
  • Full-cycle Resource Analysis Model
cooperating organizations
Cooperating Organizations
  • Minerals Management Service
  • Geological Survey of Canada
  • Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
  • Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
  • Individual Russian Scientists
  • Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe
  • Members of the World Energy Consortium
integrated evaluation algorithm
INTEGRATED EVALUATION ALGORITHM

DEFINE

ASSESSMENT

UNITS

DEVELOP

BACKGROUND

INFORMATION

GEOLOGIC ANALYSIS

AND

RISK ASSESSMENT

VOLUME & FLOW

ASSESSMENT

FULL CYCLE

SIMULATION

DEVELOP

ANALOG

APPROACH

DEVELOP ANALOG

MODELS FOR

VOLUME & FLOW

ne greenland
NE GREENLAND

SIGNIFICANT:

  • Geologic uncertainty
  • Technical uncertainty
  • Economic uncertainty

Category 3

sparse seismic,

no wells