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International Security Estimate In the 21 st Century. Dr. Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang Professor of Strategic Studies & Director of American Studies Tamkang University Senior Associate Center for Strategic & International Studies. APEC 2007 Workshop Foreign Service Institute

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International Security Estimate

In the 21st Century

Dr. Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang

Professor of Strategic Studies

& Director of American Studies

Tamkang University

Senior Associate

Center for Strategic & International Studies

APEC 2007 Workshop

Foreign Service Institute

Taipei, March 14, 2007

©ACH 2007. The views in the presentation should not be interpreted as those of the ROC government.


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The views expressed

in this presentation should not

be interpreted

as those of

the ROC Government

or any political party in Taiwan

Off the Record


Major events 2007 l.jpg
Major Events 2007

  • 228 Incident – 60th anniversary

  • Anti-Rightist Campaign – 50th anniversary

  • Hong Kong turnover – 10th anniversary

  • Asian Financial Meltdown – 10th anniversary

  • PLA – 80th birthday

  • Taiwan opened to China – 20th anniversary

  • ROC Constitution – 60th anniversary

  • 10th NPC / CPPCC – 5th Session (March)

  • Taiwan Constitutional reengineering (Spring – )

  • DPP/KMT LY/Presidential nomination (Spring)

  • CCP 17th Congress (Fall)

  • Last APEC for CSB (November)

  • Taiwan LY elections (December)

  • Referenda: KMT Assets / Constitution (December)


Competing paradigms of international security l.jpg

Prevention

Preventive Diplomacy

Strategic Ambiguity

Incentives

Multilateralism

Peace-making

Traditional Treaty Allies

Overwhelming Force

Preemption

Preemptive Defense

Strategic Clarity

Coercion

Unilateralism

Regime Change

Coalition of the Willing

Defense Transformation

Competing Paradigms of International Security


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Trends in Globalization

  • Political scenarios

    • Universal values vs. Multipolar orders vs. New rules of game

    • Good-bye Pax Americana / EU expansion / Rise of China

  • Economic scenarios

    • Disconnected regions vs. Giant multinationals

    • US dollar vs. Euro vs. Asian dollar

  • Technology scenarios

    • Geographical irrelevance / Seamless & Instant information

    • Cell phone as PDA/PC/SNG/Global Conference kit

  • Military scenarios

    • Military operations other than war (MOOTW)

    • Elephants vs. rats & the in-betweens



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Axis of Evil

Shanghai

Cooperation

Organization

First Island Chain

String of Pearls

Washington Post

April 12, 2005 P. A1

Strategic Posture

In Asia-Pacific

2005


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The Rise of ChinaStatus Quo Tilted in the Taiwan Strait ?


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The Barbarian at the Gate

China's Massive Invasion of Washington

Washingtonian, January 2007, pp. 66-71, 135-137.


The uncertain world america faces survey by carnegie endowment for international peace l.jpg

Important

to US

in 5 yrs

China

Russia

Iran

Japan

UK

India

Pakistan

EU

Saudi A

France

The Uncertain World America FacesSurvey by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Likely

Ally

in 5 yrs

  • China

  • UK

  • Japan

  • Russia

  • India

  • EU

  • Pakistan

  • Australia

  • Saudi A

  • France

Likely

Adversary

in 5 yrs

  • China

  • Iran

  • Russia

  • N Korea

  • Pakistan

  • Saudi A

  • Iraq

  • Sudan

  • India

  • Syria

Important

to US

in 20 yrs

  • China

  • Russia

  • India

  • Japan

  • Pakistan

  • Saudi A

  • Iran

  • EU

  • Brazil

  • UK

Likely

Ally

in 20 yrs

  • China

  • India

  • Russia

  • Japan

  • UK

  • EU

  • Brazil

  • Canada

  • France

  • Germany

Likely

Adversary

in 20 yrs

  • China

  • Russia

  • Pakistan

  • Saudi A

  • Iran

  • India

  • Japan

  • EU

  • Indonesia

  • N Korea

David Rothkopf, Running the World: The Inside Story of the National Security Council

and the Architects of American Power, New York, NY: Public Affairs, 2004, pp. 448-456.


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China’s “Domestic-External Linkage” Regional Economic Strategy

Shanghai

Cooperation

Organization

Northeast

Revitalization

Northeast

Asia Free

Trade Area

Big West

Development

Bohai Rim

Econ Circle

Yangtze

Delta

TWN Strait

West Bank

Taiwan

Economy

Regional Econ Groupings

Zhujiang

Delta

Domestic Econ Projects

ASEAN

Plus

One

HK/Macau

CEPA

Grand

Mekong

Sub-region

© ACH


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Shanghai Cooperation Organization Strategy

Red: states in the SCO

Black: states China does not want in SCO

Yellow: states China is willing to consider for membership in SCO

By Alex Liebman, Harvard University


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The Asean Plus Three/East Asia Summit Strategy

Red: states in the APT

Black: states China does not want in EAS (Russia currently has observer status; New Zealand not pictured).

By Alex Liebman, Harvard University


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The Rise of China Strategy

Deserves a

Second Thought

A Sick Panda

May Be

More Dangerous

Than a

Muscular Dragon


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Owner of Strategy

Democracy

民主的擁有者

Stakeholder

in Security

安全的關係人

Not Only But Also

Common

Interests

共同的利益

Shared

Values

共享的價值


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The all mighty God has granted Strategy

the world everyday a sunny day.

If you don’t see the sun today,

your strategic altitude

is not high enough.


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史記卷八高祖本紀第八 Strategy

高祖曰:

夫運籌策帷帳之中,決勝於千里之外,吾不如子房。

鎮國家,撫百姓,給餽饟,不絕糧道,吾不如蕭何。

連百萬之軍,戰必勝,攻必取,

吾不如韓信。

此三者,皆人傑也,吾能用之,

此吾所以取天下也。

Peace through Strength

報告完畢

敬祈指教

ahuang csis.org