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Mitigation and adaptation strategies with respect to impacts of climate change/variability and natural disasters Wang Shili Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences .

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Mitigation and adaptation strategies with respect to impacts of climate change/variability and natural disastersWang ShiliChinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

slide2

Climate change will bring out remarkable impacts on natural ecosystem and socio-economy, some impacts are catastrophic and irreversible. It is necessary to study the impacts and adopt the adaptive measures in advance in order to mitigate the adverse influence.

  • Climate variability results in the instable of agricultural production, the impacts of extreme climate events and various disasters are increasing around the world.
slide3
Mitigation and adaptationstrategies

with respect to impacts

of climate change

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Up till now the study on climate change and its impacts have made many progress. However the issue ofmitigation and adaptationstrategies with respect to impacts of climate change is not played much attention, the relative study is rather insufficient and weakness, and it is difficult to implement and practice. there is a long way to go.

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Reduce emission of

green house gasses

  • to improve the efficiency of energy use
  • to use clean and renewable energy-wind resources, solar resources
  • to reduce the emission from agricultural practice, such as deforest, combusting residence, paddy field control
  • to increase tree planting and forestry acreage
slide6

Develop sustainable agriculture

  • to breed and improve crop cultivars and varieties with resisting adverse strain and high photosynthesis efficiency
  • adjust cropping system and layout arrangement, such as changing cropping into animal husbandry in marginal areas, improve the ability of absorbing co2 of agricultural practice_maize crop
slide7
develop save-water agriculture, reasonable irrigation scheme
  • develop traditional agricultural practice which are favor andfriendly to environment protection, straw mulching, water harvest
  • Prepare and control pest, disease and weeds, develop reagents without pollution, biological control techniques
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Protect ecological environment and reasonable land use
  • Water erosion control
  • Avoid over-grazing, develop optimal animal husbandry strategies according to reasonable animal capacity
  • Promote concordant, integrated agricultural development in vulnerable regions.
straw mulching
straw mulching

Latent heat flux is reduced

Wheat yield increased by 18.5%, water use efficiency was improved by 22.1%.

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A project to shift farm land to grassland or forest in western part of China

arid semi-arid regions

vulnerable ecological environment

less arable land

pool agricultural production

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Serious soil erosion

soil and water control by grass

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Strength water resources management

  • Enhance water resources planning and control (ecological water usage, agricultural irrigation water usage and resident life water usage), improve water use efficiency
  • Develop cloud water resources in atmosphere, sea water processing
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Coastal management

  • Monitor raise of sea level
  • Build the coastwise safeguard
  • Develop early warning system of extreme climate events
training and education
Training and education
  • Improve the public aware of climate change and mitigation impacts of climate change
  • Strength training and education for farmers.
slide17
Reducing impacts

of climate variability on sustainable agriculture

slide18
Monitor agro-meteorological condition based on station observation network, remote sensing and GIS
  • Assess impacts and risk analysis
  • Apply seasonal prediction in agricultural production
drought is one of the most severe meteorological disasters
Drought is one of the most severe meteorological disasters

With characteristic of slow development, long duration, wide stricken area and severity.

Significant impact on hydrology, agriculture, eco-environment, economy and society

monitoring based on station network
Monitoring based on Station Network

Agro-meteorological Stations

Weather Stations in China

Soil Moisture Observation Stations

precipitation abnormality drought index from sep to oct 2004
Precipitation, abnormality, drought index from Sep. to Oct. 2004

Rainfall Amount in period from Sep. to Oct.

Anomaly Percent (%)

Severe drought

Rainfall <100mm

Extreme drought

anomaly

-50%

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轻旱

轻旱

First decade in March, 2004

Thermal inertia method

Drought grade

Second decade in July, 2004

Drought grade

Water supply vegetation index method

drought monitoring and assessment using gis
Drought Monitoring and Assessment using GIS

Drought grade

Drought index

on 15, September,

2004

Drought acrage(km2) in whole province: 34771 (19%)

Climate and agro-meteorological Centre, Guangdong

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Comprehensive drought risk zoning of wheat in North China

Risk zoning of drought loss of wheat in North China

R:yield reduction percent; P: average yield reduction percent; C: variance coefficient of yield reduction; k: index of disaster-resisting

F, P: water stress and their probability; R,D: yield reduction percent and probability; a: time trend coefficients of drought-resisting capacity

Comprehensive risk zoning

application of seasonal prediction in agricultural production
Application of Seasonal Prediction in Agricultural production
  • Seasonal Climate Prediction and Cropping System Decisions
  • Seasonal Climate Prediction and Farm Management Decision
  • Seasonal Climate Prediction and Agrometeorological Disasters
  • Climate Prediction and Grain Production
  • Climate Prediction and Plant Diseases and Insect Pests
slide28

Observed soil moisture

Predicted soil moisture

Irrigation scheme service based on climate forecasts and agrometeorological modelshown on TV

Normal

needed

urgently

wheat drought prediction in north china based on crop model and regional climate prediction
Wheat drought prediction in North China based on crop model and regional climate prediction

Predicted 10-days early warning of wheat drought

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Meteorological Forecast of RPH outbreak

Actual attacked area percentage

Forecasted attacked area percentage

the attacked area percentage of riceby RPH (%)

year

The forecasted result of the attacked area percentage of rice by RPHwith the average area index of subtropical High from Jul. to Oct. in comparison with the actually occurrence