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Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY? Gor

Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY? Gordon Alexander, Senior Economic and Social Policy Advisor CEE/CIS Region Global Child Poverty Study Meeting, Tashkent April 2-4 2008.

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Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY? Gor

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  1. Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery…WHY? Gordon Alexander, Senior Economic and Social Policy Advisor CEE/CIS Region Global Child Poverty Study Meeting, Tashkent April 2-4 2008

  2. Main Message: A new generation of evidence-based policy for children • data from people – and children • from ‘inputs’ to ‘outcomes’ • focus on ‘performance gaps’ • being clear on Hypothesis : what are the policy changes that you need evidence to support?

  3. For first time in more than a decade, resources are available • A ‘window of opportunity’ over the next 5-8 years • A 3rd wave of reforms is underway • but there are risks • Spending will be on infrastructure • Policies remain sectoral • Political support for reform falters • External conditions change

  4. 4 Parts to Presentation • Some Building Blocks • Where are we now ? • Big Issues (added value of study?) • What is driving policy?

  5. Building Blocks 1 Child Well-being is multi-dimensional – and inter-connected • Children’s life chances – powerfully influenced by access to and quality of services • Some periods/transitions esp critical (early years of life, from school to job…) • Children’s experiences at home, with friends and in neighbourhood • Importance of children’s perspectives

  6. Building Blocks 2Systems themselves are often the source of failures for children • Systems that had their logic in past - no longer respond to current or emerging challenges • Certain groups of children always excluded • ‘Intention’ may well be good but outcomes for children poor • Often unable to monitor effect of their policies • Reform can produce exclusion • ‘gaps’ from withdrawal of state • models imported from outside, not fully contextualised • incomplete reform • old models restored

  7. 4 Principles from CRC to shape and guide response • ‘the best interests of the child’ • non-discrimination • participation • resources ‘to the fullest extent possible’

  8. A Story ofCrisis and Economic Re-bound GDP per capita CEE/CIS low point early-mid 90s, upward trend since ’98-99. Similar pattern of recovery but increasingly divergent paths…

  9. Where are we now? • Measuring vs 7 dimensions of child well-being • Material situation • Housing • Health • Education • Peer relationships • Family forms and care • Risk and Safety

  10. Progress at the top (laws, policies…) but less at the bottom(implementation) • Vulnerability still High • Rise in disparities • Erosion of social services • New dimensions – migration, decentralisation, HIV/AIDS

  11. Performance Gap 1Poverty is coming down…. Source : World Bank 2005

  12. But not all children are benefitting from economic growth GDP and public care of children: Source: TransMonee. Analysis based on complete trend data from 16 countries.

  13. Performance Gap 2: Life Expectancy (2004) 75 Slovenia Albania Croatia Czech Republic Poland Uzbekistan Armenia Slovakia 70 Azerbaijan Bulgaria Hungary Georgia Romania Latvia Lithuania Estonia Turkmenistan 65 Moldova Kyrgyzstan Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan 60 Russia 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP per capita PPP$ Source: TRANSMONEE Fitted values

  14. Performance Gap 3 : Under 5yr Mortality Kyrgyzstan 30 Georgia 25 Uzbekistan 20 Romania Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Moldova Azerbaijan 15 FYR Macedonia Bulgaria Russia Albania Armenia Ukraine Latvia 10 Lithuania Belarus Slovakia Bosnia-Herzegovina Poland Hungary Estonia Croatia 5 Slovenia Czech R. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP per capita PPP$, in 2004 Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE

  15. New barriers for the poorInformal Payments During Most Recent Consultation % Source: Balabanova 2004

  16. Poland Hungary 100 Czech Republic Bulgaria Croatia Slovakia Russia 80 Belarus Lithuania Romania Uzbekistan FYR Macedonia Latvia Kazakhstan Ukraine Albania 60 Armenia Georgia Bosnia-Herzegovina Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan Moldova 40 Tajikistan Turkmenistan 20 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Gdp per capita PPP, 2004 Performance Gap 4 : EducationUpper Secondary Education enrolment 15-18yrs (%) Source: TRANSMONEE

  17. Quality of Education PISA 2006 – Reading Scores

  18. Performance Gap 5 : Pre-Primary enrolment (2004) Czech Republic Hungary Latvia 80 Slovenia Bulgaria Slovakia Romania Russia Moldova 60 Lithuania Poland % Ukraine Croatia 40 Albania FYR Macedonia Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan 20 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Bosnia-Herzegovina Tajikistan 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Source: TRANSMONEE GDP per capita PPP

  19. Access to Pre-School - by Income Quintile Source: UNICEF 2007

  20. Performance Gap 6: Stunting Children < 5yrs by household assets Source: MICS 2006

  21. Stunting by maternal education Source: MICS 2006

  22. Performance Gap 7 : Young People Mortality Rates 15-19yrs 120 Russia Kazakhstan 100 Turkmenistan 80 Lithuania Ukraine Estonia Belarus Latvia Moldova 60 Romania Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Albania Croatia Slovenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Czech Republic Poland Georgia Slovakia Hungary 40 FYR Macedonia Bosnia-Herzegovina Armenia 20 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP Per Capita $ PPP Source: TRANSMONEE Fitted values

  23. An epidemic with its roots in povertyIncidence of HIV infections Source: EuroHIV 2007

  24. Why did children lose out in the first phase of transition? • Pre-occupation economic and political stabilisation • Fiscal squeeze • Lack of institutional structures that protected their interests • Reform of areas that mattered was politically painful • Past practices …

  25. Long period of underinvestment in Health Government Expenditure on Health as % GDP CIS Countries 1996-2006 Source: WHO database 2008

  26. 6 Ukraine Moldova Hungary Belarus Poland 5 Czech Republic Bulgaria 4 Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan Albania 3 Georgia Tajikistan Armenia FYR Macedonia Kazakhstan 2 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP per capita PPP$, 2004 Fitted values A more mixed picture on Education Government Expenditures on Education/GDP (%) 2004 Source: TRANSMONEE

  27. Yet these are the areas of public demand for investment EBRD Life in Transition survey 2006 HEALTH PENSIONS HOUSING EDUCATION

  28. What are the big issues? • Extent to which economic growth becomes pro-poor ? • What are ‘family-friendly’ social protection & labour market policies? • A package of interventions & services all children have access to? • Increased budgets not just going into buildings and roads? • Are Social Services responding to most vulnerable? • How is Decentralization best approached?

  29. Lastly, Child well-being and GDP are not correlated: Policy Matters!

  30. What does this mean for the study? • That need for a clear hypothesis • The link to policy - right from the start • How can the analysis support (and inform)reform? • Lead to a change in paradigm

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