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,l’ -+Ali / +N December 18th, 2020 Volume 220, Issue 959 Week 51 “Either write something worth reading or do something worth writing.” – Benjamin Franklin Highlights: MARKET COMMENTARY • Settled down. •USD 400/LDT sales. •Turkey surges. • Capes galore. • Covid surge. • Better times ahead. ALL CHANGE! After a surge that saw the Bangladeshi market rise too fast too soon, in addition to some steady progress made from the firming Pakistani and Indian markets, sub-continent destinations seem to have finally settled down a touch, in the run up to Christmas / New Year’s. As such, it was no surprise to see Bangladesh sink to the bottom of the sub-continent price rankings this week, whilst India sits atop the pile and Pakistan is not too far behind in second. Meanwhile, the Turkish market has continued its upward trajectory in impressive form, with steel plate and imported scrap steel prices registering noteworthy gains this week (some not seen since the crash of 2008), while the Turkish Lira too registered an improvement of its own. On the sales front, a number of decently priced sales were concluded off of the back of recycling levels hitting USD 400/LT LDT (and above) this week, particularly in the Capesize Bulker and VLOC sectors. Moreover, 30 VLOCs have now been sold for recycling so far this year (with one more being concluded this week for an HKC green sale into India), in what has turned into the busiest sector to shed tonnage in 2020 thus far. In fact, even early 2000s built Capesize Bulkers are now being considered as recycling candidates, so low have charter rates fallen in this particular sector - down to almost breakeven OPEX levels at present and are likely to remain this way for the next 3-4 months at least. Covid cases continue to surge across the U.S.A. and Europe as we enter peak flu season and some more serious lockdowns have come into place in the U.K., Germany and parts of the U.S. (to name a few). Overall, it seems to be set to be a bleak midwinter for many and certainly not one that we are accustomed to as all hope for a brighter 2021 ahead. For week 51 of 2020, GMS demo rankings / pricing for the week are as below. Demo Rank USD / LDT 1 India Improving 410 / LDT 2 Pakistan Steady 405 / LDT 3 Bangladesh Declining 400 / LDT 4 Turkey Improving 270/ LDT Dry Bulk Tankers USD / LDT 430 / LDT 425 / LDT 420 / LDT 275/ LDT Containers USD / LDT 440 / LDT 435 / LDT 430 / LDT 280/ LDT Location Sentiment 67s
GMS Weekly Page 2 of 8 VESSEL NAME JISAN GAS BANGLADESH WOEFUL WEEK! A woeful week of consistently (and rapidly) declining steel plate prices – that have fallen precipitously by nearly USD 30/Ton this week alone - has seen Bangladesh drop to the bottom of the price rankings board again, having pushed ahead for only a few short weeks after the dissolution of the cartel. A healthy portion of the recently improved steel gains have been wiped off and Bangladeshi Buyers are now becoming far more tentative with their offers, having witnessed some exuberant and above-market offerings since the cartel broke up. With India and Pakistan improving once again, it would be no surprise to see Bangladesh miss out on their share of the available (particularly larger LDT favored dry) tonnage again. Falling steel. Missing out. MARKET SALES REPORTED TYPE LPG LDT 2,078 REPORTED PRICE USD 428/LT LDT
GMS Weekly Page 3 of 8 INDIA TOP DOGS! As India surges ahead this week, several larger LDT dry units (and one high spec LNG) have been concluded to local Buyers for HKC green recycling, at some seriously remarkable numbers. Just as Bangladeshi steel prices forged ahead in the preceding weeks, India has enjoyed some massive rises in steel prices by about USD 23 / LDT – something that has become a bit of a concern to local ministers who fear that various projects are becoming unviable and have written to P.M. Modi, to caution him against over-zealous profiteering by steel makers. If taken seriously, this could well see steel prices cool off in the near future. While local steel plate prices have reported a noteworthy improvement this week, the Indian Rupee has likewise been trading at a decent rate in the mid Rs. 73s against the U.S. Dollar, in another contributing factor for the highest priced sub-continent market at present. Finally, Alang’s waterfront was the busiest of all the sub-continent destinations this week, with 17 vessels at the waterfront / on the beach. Securing units. Good fundamentals. NO MARKET SALES REPORTED
GMS Weekly Page 4 of 8 PAKISTAN BACK IN THE FOLD! Pakistan has been unable to secure any units for yet another week, as India continues to purchase all of the HKC green tonnage, as there has increasingly been a pause in the number of dry units for sale of late, especially in the lead up to Christmas and New Year holidays across the globe. Bangladesh has successfully secured the most recent set of favored large LDT VLOCs after their post cartel surge and Pakistan have been hoping to pick up the pieces now that Bangladesh has dropped off significantly again. With Capesize Bulker charter rates continuing to disappoint and several more VLOCs potentially left to sell, we can only hope for Pakistan to remain at the bidding tables, for a possibly busy 2021. Holidays approach. Units to come. NO MARKET SALES REPORTED
Page 5 of 8 GMS Weekly TURKEY TROUNCING! Despite a traditionally cooler year-end period in Turkey, local steel plate prices have been on an unrelenting upward trajectory for several weeks now, with about a USD 20/Ton increase reported this week alone. Even the Turkish Lira, which has been the bane of most local recyclers at effectively acquiring meaningful tonnage of late, has managed to firm up and trade around the USD 7.6X mark against the U.S. Dollar. Finally, even import scrap prices continue to firm and are reportedly trading at levels in the region of USD 440/Ton, which is about USD 40/Ton higher than that of last week and is apparently the second time that this level has been achieved since the financial crisis of 2008. These numbers are certainly uncommon for Turkey and as such, Aliaga Buyers do not seem as keen to commit on units at these fiery hot levels. Will these levels sustain is anyone’s guess, as an increasing number of local Recyclers are convinced that today’s levels may not be available by next February. As such, just how far this pricing aggression will sustain is anyone’s guess – but most with potential Turkish candidates in store are certain to be greeted with healthy numbers. Finally, on the Covid front, an apparent (mini) lockdown commencing from December 31st evening until January 4th (2021) is reported locally, especially as an increasing number of cases and (resulting) deaths are still being registered. Fundamentals push high. Prices jump notably. NO MARKET SALES REPORTED
Miscellaneous i Page 6 of 8 AMAZING FACTS Marie Curie is the only person to earn a Nobel prize in two different sciences. - The pioneering researcher won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1903 (shared with her husband) for her study of spontaneous radiation, and then won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1911 for her work in radioactivity. That makes her one of just six recipients to receive multiple Nobel prizes, and the only person to receive it in two different sciences. (Chemical engineer Linus Paulding earned a Nobel Chemistry Prize and Nobel Peace Prize, but all other multiple winners received theirs in the same category). Fingernails don't grow after you die. - Despite what you may have seen on other lists of random trivia, your fingernails and hair do not, in fact, continue to grow after you die. To grow, these must have a steady supply of glucose, which is cut off after the heart stops beating, preventing any further growth. In fact, the skin around the hair follicles and nails dehydrates after death and partly retracts, which can make them appear longer. The English word with the most definitions is "set." - According to Guinness World Records, "set" has the largest number of meanings of any word in the English language, with 430 different senses listed in the 1989 edition of Second Edition of the Oxford English Dictionary. The word "sets" the record with an entry running 60,000 words, or 326,000 characters, and no other English word has come close since. IMPORTANT DATES INDIA BEACHING TIDES December 12 – December 20 December 28 – January 02 BANK HOLIDAYS December 25 – Christmas Day BANGLADESH BANK HOLIDAYS December 25 – Christmas Day December 31 – Bank Holiday BEACHING TIDES December 13 – December 16 December 30 – January 02 January 13 – January 16 IMPORTANT BANK HOLIDAYS PAKISTAN CHINA TURKEY No holidays in December No holidays in December No holidays in December Prices indicated above are as reported in the market and are not necessarily accurate. This information is provided without prejudice and is given in good faith and without any guarantees whatsoever. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this report, no liability can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person relying on the information contained herein. Opinions expressed herein may be deemed subjective and arbitrary. This WEEKLY is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited.
GMS Port Report Page 7 of 8 ALANG - Port Position as of Arrived December 18, 2020 No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Total Tonnage VESSEL NAME Angelis Asphalt Alliance Colors Eldorado (Under Tow) FSO Angsi (Under Tow) Ing 1 Jumeira 1 Linda - 1 M F Rose Mako Marlo Moon (Under Tow) Narlica Oyo Smolninskiy Taihua Spirit Unit Star LDT TYPE Roro Oil Tanker Chemical Tanker FPSO FPSO Gen Cargo Tug Supply Vessel General Cargo MPP Oil Tanker MODU Oil Tanker LPG Reefer Chemical Tanker Oil Tanker STATUS 4,258 2,385 3,552 46,412 14,843 11,845 677 1,833 2,382 3,669 6,027 7,345 2,240 2,044 1,835 5,627 2,020 118,993 Beached December 16 Beached December 15 Beached December 12 Beached December 13 Arrived December 14 Arrived December 15 Arrived December 17 Arrived November 13 Arrived December 12 Arrived December 10 Arrived December 13 Arrived December 17 Arrived December 13 Beached December 18 Arrived December 12 Arrived December 12 Arrived November 12 CHATTOGRAM - Port Position as of December 18, 2020 VESSEL NAME LDT Huawang 1,189 Jet 9,200 KT 06 8,002 Lila Porto 21,062 Nusu 6,009 Permata Caroline 10,794 PK Marine 1 691 Shanthi (Under Tow) 7,500 Stellar Liberty 47,303 Stellar Ocean 43,393 Total Tonnage 155,142 No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TYPE Supply Tug Tanker Bulk Carrier Bulk Carrier Tanker Bulk Carrier Tanker Bulk Carrier Ore Carrier Ore Carrier STATUS Beached December 14 Beached December 16 Arrived December 18 Beached December 14 Beached December 16 Beached December 18 Beached December 18 Beached December 16 Beached December 15 Beached December 14 GADANI - Port Position as of December 18, 2020 VESSEL NAME LDT UPS 1 695 ABK Trader 6,011 Arybbas 7,770 Kibo 37,363 New Paros 16,696 Ptolemeos 7,500 Sarah F 4,462 Silver Shark 5,636 Total Tonnage 86,133 No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 TYPE Tanker Bulk Carrier Bulk Carrier VLOC Tanker Bulk Carrier General Cargo Bulk Carrier STATUS Beached December 14 Beached December 16 Beached December 17 Beached December 16 Arrived December 17 Beached December 18 Beached December 17 Beached December 16
Steel Plate Prices Page 8 of 8 INDIA STEEL PRICES USD/T INDIA STEEL PRICES PAKISTAN STEEL PRICES USD/T PAKISTAN STEEL PRICES BANGLADESH STEEL PRICES USD/T BANGLADESH STEEL PRICES CHINA STEEL PRICES USD/T DATE 12/12/2020 418.19 30,800.00 561.97 90,000.00 514.62 44,000.00 397.52 12/13/2020 418.19 30,800.00 561.97 90,000.00 497.08 42,500.00 397.52 12/14/2020 428.11 31,500.00 560.75 90,000.00 491.23 42,000.00 397.79 12/15/2020 426.40 31,400.00 560.75 90,000.00 485.38 41,500.00 397.35 12/16/2020 428.16 31,500.00 560.75 90,000.00 485.38 41,500.00 397.83 12/17/2020 434.78 32,000.00 560.75 90,000.00 485.38 41,500.00 397.78 12/18/2020 441.88 32,500.00 560.75 90,000.00 485.38 41,500.00 398.07 www.gmsinc.net GMS_Leadership GMS, Inc. snp@gmsinc.net Athens, Greece Tel: +30.210.899.0669 Cumberland, USA Tel: +1.301.759.9240 Hamburg, Germany Tel: +49.40.3197.9963 Shanghai, China Tel: +86.216.075.1900 Singapore Tel: +65.6823.8037 Bhavnagar, India Tel: +91.278.300.5253 Dubai, UAE Tel: +971.4.423.0720 New York, USA: +1.240.505.9716 Seoul, South Korea Tel: +82.10.4650.0720 Tokyo, Japan Tel: +81.3.5453.6311