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North Central River Forecast Center: An Overview of Operations and Mission

North Central River Forecast Center: An Overview of Operations and Mission. Wisconsin River Post-Flood Meeting November 16, 2010. Outline. NCRFC Mission and Products Forecast process Meteorological driving data Hydrologic model Daily Analysis Calibration September 2010 Forecasts

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North Central River Forecast Center: An Overview of Operations and Mission

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  1. North Central River Forecast Center:An Overview of Operations and Mission Wisconsin River Post-Flood Meeting November 16, 2010

  2. Outline • NCRFC Mission and Products • Forecast process • Meteorological driving data • Hydrologic model • Daily Analysis • Calibration • September 2010 Forecasts • NWS Products

  3. NOAA Integrated Water Resource Services • This initiative will develop and deliver valued water resources forecasts to • save lives and properties, manage water resources, and enhance America’s • economy. Some of the benefits will apply to: • Irrigation • Power Generation • River Commerce • Protection of threatened and endangered species • Enhanced aquatic habitats • Balanced terrestrial/aquatic watershed management

  4. Office and Staff • One of 13 River Forecast Centers in the USA • Staff of 19 forecasters and administrative personnel • Operates 365 days a year, 18-24 hours a day 13 NWS River Forecast Centers

  5. Area of Responsibility • 1117 sub-watersheds (155 in Wisconsin) • 33 forecast groups • 3 Major Basins • Mississippi River • Great Lakes • Hudson Bay

  6. Forecast Services Water Quality Support

  7. Flash Flood Guidance

  8. Forecast Hydrograph

  9. Long Range Probabilistic Products

  10. Outline • NCRFC Mission and Products • Forecast process • Meteorological data • Hydrologic model • Daily Analysis • Calibration • Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project

  11. PrecipitationSurface observations Point precipitation Mean areal precipitation • Hourly to daily accumulations • Manual and automated observers • Quality controlled

  12. PrecipitationRadar Estimates Gridded precipitation Mean areal precipitation • 27 USA radars & 8 Canadian radars • Hourly grids • Bias corrected based on surface observations • Quality controlled

  13. PrecipitationForecast • Gridded • 6-hour accumulation • 5 days available

  14. Air TemperatureObserved & Forecast • Daily max/min • 7 days available • Soon will be gridded

  15. Outline • NCRFC Mission and Products • Forecast process • Meteorological data • Hydrologic model • Daily Analysis • Calibration • Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project

  16. Hydrologic Model • NWSRFS – National Weather Service River Forecast System • Several models are run for each sub-watershed • Snow accumulation & melt • Soil moisture & runoff • River routing • Reservoirs

  17. Model Schematics Soil Moisture/Runoff Model Snow Model

  18. Model Analysis

  19. Model Analysis • Forecaster can modify • Precipitation type • Amount and areal extent of snow cover • Melt rate

  20. Model Analysis • Forecaster can modify • Amount of water in any of the conceptual storages • Frost index • Amount of rain/melt • Amount of runoff

  21. Model Analysis • Models are analyzed and adjusted on a daily basis. • Goal: to accurately simulate streamflow while maintaining reasonable model states. • Only make adjustments when necessary and justified.

  22. Model Calibration • Calibration period 1948-2004 • Snow, soil moisture, routing, and reservoir models all require calibration • “Subjective” function is how well we simulate the hydrograph at the outlet. • Could be used to calibrate thresholds for this project.

  23. How did we do last September?

  24. How will I know when high water is coming? http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

  25. Long Range Outlooks

  26. Long Range Outlooks (cont)

  27. Snow Information http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/

  28. 1-5 Day NWS Precipitation Forecasts… http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

  29. River Forecasts http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

  30. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/content/water/fop.php

  31. Specialized Products…QPF Ensembles

  32. Specialized Products…Flow Forecasts : This product contains preliminary data that may be subject to revision. : Refer to your local WFO for the latest official river forecast. : : North Central River Forecast Center, Chanhassen, MN : : Mon Nov 15 15:41:00 2010 : : Wolf R New London Adj Flood Stage ft .E NEWW3 1114 Z DH18/DC1115/QRIP/DIH06 : 6-Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs) .E1 2.025/ 2.015/ 2.000/ 2.010/ .E NEWW3 1115 Z DH18/DC1115/QRICB/DIH06 : 6-Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs) .E1 2.029/ 2.061/ 2.116/ 2.196/ 2.275/ 2.338/ 2.397/ 2.452/ .E1 2.494/ 2.529/ 2.558/ 2.580/ 2.597/ 2.611/ 2.622/ 2.629/ .E1 2.633/ 2.628/ 2.610/ 2.584/ 2.555/ 2.524/ 2.493/ 2.461/ .E1 2.430/ 2.400/ 2.371/ 2.343/ : : Little Wolf R Royalton Adj Flood Stage ft .E ROYW3 1114 Z DH18/DC1115/QRIP/DIH06 : 6-Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs) .E1 0.485/ 0.485/ 0.572/ 0.606/ .E ROYW3 1115 Z DH18/DC1115/QRICB/DIH06 : 6-Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs) .E1 0.640/ 0.666/ 0.684/ 0.692/ 0.693/ 0.686/ 0.672/ 0.653/ .E1 0.630/ 0.603/ 0.573/ 0.541/ 0.512/ 0.483/ 0.456/ 0.432/ .E1 0.413/ 0.398/ 0.386/ 0.376/ 0.367/ 0.360/ 0.354/ 0.348/ .E1 0.343/ 0.338/ 0.334/ 0.330/

  33. Specialized Products…Objective Products

  34. Specialized Products…Inundation Mapping

  35. Questions? NWS/North Central River Forecast Center Brian.Connelly@noaa.gov 952-368-2540 Steve.Buan@noaa.gov 952-368-2545

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