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Part 2: Medium-Range Forecasting

Part 2: Medium-Range Forecasting. Ed O’Lenic Climate Prediction Center. f x P versus log f. Outline. Review Forecast process, tools, web page Tools for a recent forecast Official forecast Skill. ~~~ Preliminaries ~~~. There is a lot of variability on the time scale of weekly mean

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Part 2: Medium-Range Forecasting

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  1. Part 2: Medium-Range Forecasting Ed O’Lenic Climate Prediction Center

  2. f x P versus log f

  3. Outline • Review • Forecast process, tools, web page • Tools for a recent forecast • Official forecast • Skill

  4. ~~~ Preliminaries ~~~ • There is a lot of variability on the time scale of weekly mean daily data, some of it predictable. • Skill of daily 5-7+ forecasts is ~0. • We can predict weekly average 500 hPa height, surface T, P probabilities with useable skill. • CPC Week 2 forecasts are for probability of 7-day mean temperature and total precipitation at a lead of 7 days. • Three climatologically equally likely (terciles) categories.

  5. Medium Range process schematic Downscale: get surface weather from 500 mb height via analogs, regression, neural network. Forecaster formulates maps of predicted T, P, PMD bulletin Multi-model ensemble 9:00 AM Weighted average of model 500 hPa height R R Disseminate via web, AWIPS, FOS 3-4 PM R = Forecaster reconciliation of tools required

  6. Forecast tools DYNAMICAL MODELS • Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensembles • DAVA – divergent anomaly vorticity advection barotropic model • European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensembles • Canadian ensembles STATISTICAL TOOLS • Klein T • GFS P, T • Analog composites • Tele-connections

  7. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/dp11.air.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/dp11.air.html

  8. GFS Ensemble-Mean Z500

  9. GFS Ensemble Mean Z500 Anomalies

  10. Recent Skill

  11. GFS Ens Z500 Analog

  12. DAVA Z500 Heights

  13. DAVA Z500 Anomalies

  14. Recent Skill

  15. DAVA Z500 Analog

  16. Bias-corrected GFS Z500

  17. Recent Skill of Height Forecasts

  18. Ensemble Mean Klein T Tool

  19. Ensemble Mean Analog T Tool

  20. Bias-corrected T

  21. GFS Week 2 Precipitation forecast

  22. Ensemble Mean Analog P

  23. Bias-corrected GFS P

  24. Generic Week 2 Forecast Map N 33 40 33 40 B 50 A N N=Near Normal Category Contours are labeled with the total probability for the indicated category.

  25. 6-10-Day T Outlook

  26. 6-10-Day P Outlook

  27. Z500 Official Forecast

  28. 6-10 day Monthly Average Skill Scores s=((c-e)/(t-e))*100c = # hitse = # chance hitst = # forecasts

  29. Heidke skill scoresofMedium-Range CPC-U.S. surface TemperatureForecasts in 2003

  30. Heidke skill scoresofMedium-Range CPC-U.S. surface PrecipitationForecasts in 2003

  31. The End

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