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M A R C H 8, 2 0 1 2. Inside the eMarketer Forecast: What to tell your CEO about the 23% growth rate…. David Hallerman Principal Analyst. What we’ll look at this morning…. Online ad spend: growth and concentration Time and money: increasingly even

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

M A R C H 8, 2 0 1 2

Inside the eMarketer Forecast:

What to tell your CEO about the 23% growth rate…

David Hallerman

Principal Analyst

slide2

What we’ll look at this morning…

  • Online ad spend: growth and concentration
  • Time and money: increasingly even
  • Ad formats: imbalance skews the picture
  • Video, video: cross-channel central
  • Social: what is its true place
  • Mobile: increasing opportunity
  • Three numbers:23.3and24.1and15.2
slide4

Total online ad spending

(what’s behind the growth)

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One factor: this year’s elections will help online ad spending grow by about the same rate as last year

share of total internet ad revenues among top 10 ad selling companies
Share of total internet ad revenues among top 10 ad-selling companies

2008

72%

2002

72%

2004

71%

2006

69%

2009

71%

2010

72%

2011

72%

2012

??%

Source: IAB/PwC, 2002-2011

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Ad formats

(several imbalanced arenas)

search will continue to get the largest share of ad dollars
Search will continue to get the largest share of ad dollars

% Total Digital

2012

Source: eMarketer, January 2012

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Display dollars in 2015 will increase by more than half from 2012 — but growth rate will decline from 24.1% to 10.8%

display growth without social and mobile paints a different picture
Display growth without social and mobile paints a different picture

% Change 2012

Source: eMarketer, February 2012

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Video growth

(cross-channel possibilities)

video growth in 2012 will be twice as much or more than other formats
Video growth in 2012 will be twice as much, or more, than other formats

Source: eMarketer, January 2012

in a typical week us consumers watch video mainly on tv however
In a typical week, US consumers watch video mainly on TV, however…

% Total Video Hours, Average Week in

Q3 2011

Source: Nielsen, February 2012

slide31

Social and Mobile

(beyond the hype)

slide32

Social network sites will see greater ad growth in 2012 than the overall market —43% vs. 23% (but much more than advertising)

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Total mobile ad growth will be driven by everything but text messaging, from $1.45 billion last year to $2.61 billion this year

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Conclusions:

Ad spending growth is uneven, but…

  • The 23.3% projection for 2012 is for the overall market.
  • But the overall market is imbalanced.
  • Some of the imbalanced elements:
    • five companies will get nearly 67% of ad revenues
    • search nearly 50% of whole, and growing at 27%
    • video growth at 55%, but makes up only 8% of total
    • social dominated by Facebook, with 70% of category ad dollars
    • mobile display dominated by three networks, and mobile search is nearly all Google
  • Display online, and video in particular, offer more opportunities for lessening the imbalance than does search, social, or mobile.
  • Display growth (sans social and mobile) at 15.2% more accurately represents the mainstream online ad market.
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