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Climate of the Month January-February 2012

Climate of the Month January-February 2012. Melanie Davis. Outline. 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific. Outline. 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean

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Climate of the Month January-February 2012

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  1. Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis

  2. Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

  3. Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

  4. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Positive phase Negative phase Source : http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

  5. Observed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index Based on monthly 500hPa height anomaly fields for the three-month period centered on each month during January 1950 - December 2000. +'ve phase Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

  6. 500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly From NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology NAO +'ve phase = strong subtropical high pressure, strong Icelandic low pressure NAO -'ve phase = weak subtropical high pressure, weak Icelandic low pressure January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  7. Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology NAO +'ve phase = wet winter in Europe, wet in USA, dry in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., drier in N. Europe, snow in E. USA January 2012 February 2012 mm/day mm/day Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  8. Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 mm/day mm/day Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  9. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology NAO +'ve phase = warm winter in Europe, mild in USA, cold in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., cold in N. Europe, cold in E. USA, mild Greenland January 2012 February 2012 °C °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  10. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 °C °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  11. Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

  12. 500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology NAO +'ve phase = strong subtropical high pressure, strong Icelandic low pressure NAO -'ve phase = weak subtropical high pressure, weak Icelandic low pressure January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  13. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1968-1996 climatology NAO +'ve phase = warm winter in Europe, mild in USA, cold in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., cold in N. Europe, cold in E. USA, mild Greenland January 2012 February 2012 °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  14. Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Dec. 2011 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html

  15. Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Jan. 2012 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html

  16. Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Feb. 2012 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html

  17. Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Dec. 2011 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html

  18. Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Jan. 2012 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html

  19. Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Feb. 2012 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html

  20. Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

  21. Observed Pacific North American (PNA) Index Based on monthly 500hPa height anomaly fields for the three-month period centered on each month during January 1950 - December 2000. +ve phase +ve,-ve phase Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index.html

  22. 500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly From NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology PNA +ve phase = above normal pressure W.USA, below normal pressure E.USA PNA -ve phase = below normal pressure W.USA, above normal pressure E.USA January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  23. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology PNA +ve phase = above av. temp. W.USA/Canada, below av. temp. S.Central/E.USA PNA -ve phase = below av. temp. W.USA, above av. temp. E.USA January 2012 February 2012 °C °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  24. Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology PNA +ve phase = above normal ppt. Gulf Alaska to Pacific NW.USA, below normal ppt. Upper Mid-W. USAPNA -ve phase = opposite ? February 2012 January 2012 mm/day mm/day Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  25. Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

  26. . Source : http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac/peu/2011_2nd/soi.ph

  27. Source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/index3.shtml

  28. Surface Surface Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 K K K Source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/index.shtml

  29. Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology February 2012 January 2012 mm/day mm/day Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/

  30. What do we expect from the ENSO cycle? Source : http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=945&mode=2

  31. Summary • NAO: weak, but getting more positive towards Feb 2012 • Warmer Artic Ocean, Artic sea ice depletion • PNA: slightly positive, stronger in Feb 2012 • La Niña prevails and forecasted to continue a few months

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