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More or better? A model for changes in household greenhouse gas emissions due to higher income

More or better? A model for changes in household greenhouse gas emissions due to higher income. Bastien Girod and Peter de Haan Institute for environmental decisions (IED), ETH Zurich. Structure of presentation. Relevance Method Estimate of GHG emissions of consumption

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More or better? A model for changes in household greenhouse gas emissions due to higher income

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  1. More or better? A model for changes in household greenhouse gas emissions due to higher income Bastien Girod and Peter de Haan Institute for environmental decisions (IED), ETH Zurich

  2. Structure of presentation • Relevance • Method • Estimate of GHG emissions of consumption • How to allocate GHG emissions to consumption • How to measure affluence • Results • Conclusion

  3. Relevance of analyzing marginal consumption • Challenge for the future development • (Most) households want to increase their affluence • Greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced  How does consumption and GHG emissions change with increasing affluence?

  4. Methodforbottom-upestimate • Household consumption data (N=13’558) • Surveys 2002 to 2005; all purchases of one month • 450 consumption categories • Additional data: Durable goods & household characteristics • Derive functional unit of consumption • Example: kg food, pkm car, m2 shelter, hr service • Connect with LCA process  GHG emissions

  5. Derive functional (physical) units  Resulting GHG estimates comparable to studies using EIO data and expenditure survey or top-town data

  6. Measure increasing affluence • OECD Scale • Scale: 1 to first household member, 0.5 to additional adult, 0.3 to children • Consideration of decreasing consumption with additional household members • Constant household types • Household types: Single, two adults, small family, large family

  7. Allocation of GHG emission: functional units versus expenditure • Allocation to functional units • Same impact for products with higher price per functional unit • Allocation to expenditure • Half the price leads to half the impact • Studies of Vringer and Blok (NL) • Truth is between both concepts • However they use only the allocation to expenditure

  8. Higher income group pay higher prices

  9. Elasticityof GHG and total expenditure

  10. Subanalysis forfood

  11. Conclusionsforthefuture • If future consumption patterns evolve towards marginal consumption • Shifting relevance of consumption categories • The relevance of eating out, goods, services and mobility will increase (high elasticity) • Better and more: facilitates decoupling from material use • Mobility is key challenge for sustainable consumption • Policy: avoid increasing impact of quality • Research: focus more on the environmental impact of quality

  12. Whatistheimpactofquality? • We found that the elasticity of household GHG emissions and expenditure for Swiss households is reduced from 1.06 to 0.53 • But: higher quality goods might also lead to higher impact • Use of more exclusive materials, processing, less economy of scales • Also the opposite can be true • Organic food, longer life time, regional production (transport, energy mix, environmental standards)

  13. Thank you for questions and commentsbastien.girod@env.ethz.ch

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