Tools for Disaster Risk
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Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation. Abigail Baca The World Bank Group GFDRR Labs. How to Manage Disaster Risk in the Pacific?. Not If, But When…. The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) :

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Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation

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Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

  • Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation

Abigail Baca

The World Bank Group

GFDRR Labs


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

How to Manage Disaster Risk in the Pacific?

Not If, But When…

  • The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) :

  • Ensure risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation.

  • Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.

  • Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels.

  • Reduce underlying risk factors.

  • Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

“When?”… But also What and How??

Risk Assessment

Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments

Visualization of hazard and risk

Infrastructure design

Early Warning

Systems

Climate Change

Adaptation

Land Use/ Territorial

planning

Tools to Assist Decision Making

Analysis of financial exposure

Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness

Immediate damage assessment


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Disaster Impact Analysis

Risk Modeling

Vulnerability

(of house to wind)

Risk

(i.e probable damage/loss)

Hazard

(i.e. Cyclone wind)

Exposure

(i.e. houses, crops)

- Scenario or Stochastic -


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Scenario Modeling

San Juan del Sur

Nicaragua

Hazard

Vulnerability

Risk:

Physical Damage, Loss $

Exposure


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Stochastic Hazard Modeling

Stochastic Event Set = All physically possible events

More that historical record, estimate future events

Frequency :

How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100)

Severity :

How strong is the event?

Hurricane Cat 5

What does the event look like?

Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION

Tropical Cyclone

INTENSE RAIN

VOLCANO

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

LANDSLIDES

- GROUND SHAKING

- HURRICANE RAINFALL

- OTHER RAINFALL

HURRICANE RAINFALL

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

BALLISTIC EJECTIONS

FLOODS

- HURRICANE RAINFALL

- OTHER RAINFALL

ASH FALLS

LAVA FLOWS

STORM SURGE

STRONG WINDS

Multiple Hazards


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Hazards

+

Exposure

+

Vulnerability

+

Risk

Visualization of hazard and risk

Territorial planning

Infrastructure design

Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments

Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness

Immediate damage assessment

Applications

Analysis of financial exposure

Climate Change


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

“When?”… But also what and how??

Risk Assessment

Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments

Visualization of hazard and risk

Infrastructure design

Early Warning

Systems

Climate Change

Adaptation

Land Use/ Territorial

planning

Tools to Assist Decision Making

Analysis of financial exposure

Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness

Immediate damage assessment


Land use planning and zoning

Land Use Planning and Zoning

Identification of main hazards

Landslideshazardmap

Flood hazard map

Seismichazardmap


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Cost Benefit Analysis

Retrofitting of Critical Infrastructure

Bogota Disaster Vulnerability Reduction programSchools Retrofitted 2004-2008 :

201 School and Administration Buildings Assessed


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION

HURRICANE

INTENSE RAIN

VOLCANO

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

LANDSLIDES

- GROUND SHAKING

- HURRICANE RAINFALL

- OTHER RAINFALL

HURRICANE RAINFALL

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

BALLISTIC EJECTIONS

FLOODS

- HURRICANE RAINFALL

- OTHER RAINFALL

ASH FALLS

LAVA FLOWS

STORM SURGE

STRONG WINDS

Climate Change Impact on Disasters


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

  • Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios

Base Model

Model A

Model B


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Financial Analysis of Risk

  • How much to disasters really cost??

  • Government reserves for Emergency Response

  • Risk Financing/ Risk Transfer


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Hazards

+

Exposure

+

Vulnerability

+

Risk

Visualization of hazard and risk

Territorial planning

Infrastructure design

Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments

Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness

Immediate damage assessment

Applications

Analysis of financial exposure

Climate Change


Tools for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

  • Not IF but WHEN…. So What and How?

Abigail Baca

[email protected]


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