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www.climate-transitions.org www.i-s-e-t.org. Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation. Quantifying the Benefits. Conceptual Starting Point. Adaptation is not “coping” – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are “doing well”

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Disaster risk reduction climate adaptation

www.climate-transitions.org

www.i-s-e-t.org

Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation

Quantifying the Benefits


Conceptual starting point
Conceptual Starting Point

  • Adaptation is not “coping” – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are “doing well”

  • “Doing well” as variability and extreme events increase with climate change will require effective strategies for disaster risk reduction

    • Weather related events already account for 70% of disasters

    • Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic poverty in many parts of the world.


The practical challenge
The Practical Challenge

The conceptual part is easy

Translating concepts to action isn’t

“Buzzwords” abound -- but what does DRR or “adaptation” mean?

Practical Methodologies are Essential


The risk to resilience project
The Risk to Resilience Project

  • Case Studies

    • Rawlpindi, Pakistan

    • Rohini River, U.P.

    • Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar

  • Collaboration

    • ISET

    • ISET-Nepal

    • IIASA

    • KCL

    • WII

    • GEAG

    • PIEDAR


The methodology
The Methodology

  • Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate change projections into locally meaningful terms

  • Detailed vulnerability analyses

  • Identification of DRR options through SLDs

  • Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc…

  • Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc…

  • Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios

  • Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts

  • Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis


Shared learning process

Monitor, document

& reflect

Monitor, document

& reflect

Monitor, document

& reflect

Shared Learning Process

Adapted from Lewin 1946: “Action research and minority problems”

Local Experience

Scientific Knowledge

Shared Learning

Act

Learning

Shared

Learning

Act

Shared

Learning

Act

Time



Results of detailed CBAs indicate investment in risk reduction can generate high rates of return

True but overly simplistic

Not all approaches are resilient under changing climatic conditions

Not all approaches benefit everyone - particularly the poor


Not all drr is robust with different assumptions climate change
Not all DRR is robust with different assumptions & Climate Change

  • Differing levels of information on events required (probabilities)

  • Sensitivity to thresholds (embankments)

  • Potential for negative externalities


Not all all approaches benefit everyone
Not all All Approaches Benefit Everyone Change

  • Structural protection -- displaces impacts on those outside protective structures & can lead to behaviors that increase vulnerability

  • Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest

  • Early warning -- can’t always reach key groups

  • Groundwater development -- particularly benefits middle farmers

Most approaches involve social tradeoffs


Qualitative cba transects
Qualitative CBA Transects Change

Transect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River

Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River

Transect 1: The Bairgania Bund


Transect 1 the bairgania ring bund
Transect 1: The Bairgania Ring Bund Change

(+, - - -)

(+ + +,- )

(+, - -)

(+ +, -)

+, - -

(+, - - -)

(+, - - -)


Transect 2 settlements along bagmati river
Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River Change

(+ + +)

(+ +,-)

(- - -)


Transect 3 settlements along lal bakaiya river
Transect 3: ChangeSettlementsalong Lal Bakaiya River

(+ +,- -)

(- - -)

(+,- -)

(+ +, -)


Robust approaches
Robust approaches Change

  • address the systemic factors creating vulnerability

  • respond to recurrent sources of variability

  • have low dependence on specific climate projections

Many such approaches are community based


Questionable drr approaches
Questionable DRR Approaches Change

  • Warning signals that DRR may not work include strategies that involve:

    • Dependence on specific event characteristics

    • Long lead times

    • High initial investments

    • Long-term institutional dependence

    • Large distributional consequences


Climate risk management requires
Climate Risk Management Requires Change

  • A mix of strategies

    • Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized

    • Systemic as well as targeted

    • Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure

    • Risk spreading as well as risk reduction

  • Approaches that are tailored to specific contexts and sources of vulnerability

  • Tangibility rather than generalizations


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