Does PNACO make airborne toxins? What’s the best way to find out?

1. Does PNACO make airborne toxins? What’s the best way to find out? Unclassified/For Official Use Only

2. PAINT RAPID:Representation and Analysis ofProbabilistic Intelligence Data Carnegie Mellon University PI : Prof. Jaime G. Carbonell / jgc@cs.cmu.edu / (412) 268-7279 Dr. Eugene Fink / e.fink@cs.cmu.edu / (412) 268-6593 Dr. Anatole Gershman / anatoleg@cs.cmu.edu / (412) 268-8259 DYNAMiX Technologies POC: Dr. Ganesh Mani / gmani@dynamixtechnologies.com / (412) 401-0121 Mr. Dwight Dietrich / ddietrich@dynamixtechnologies.com / (724) 940-4304 Unclassified/For Official Use Only

3. Motivation To create innovative management methods and computational tools for representation and analysis of uncertainty in large-scale data Unclassified/For Official Use Only

4. Strategy Development Targeted Data Extraction Leadership 2 Pathways 3 1 4 Data Probes PAINT Architecture Interactions REAL WORLD RAPID: Uncertainty Calculus and Proactive Probe Planning Unclassified/For Official Use Only

5. RAPID Solution Features • Automatic impact evaluation of uncertainty on analyst hypotheses and conclusions • Recommends optimized plans for proactive intelligence gathering • Targeted reduction of system uncertainty by directed collection of critical data • Based on industry-standard platforms Excel and Oracle • Specialized enhancements for managing uncertainty calculus • Easy-to-use; no programming required Unclassified/For Official Use Only

6. RAPID Value Proposition Provide analysts with an uncertainty decision framework answering the following questions: • What conclusions can be drawn from the available uncertain data, and at what level of certainty? • What missing data is critical for verifying specific hypotheses, increasing the certainty of current conclusions, refuting tentative conclusions, or drawing new conclusions? • What are the tradeoffs between the value of specific missing data and the difficulty of obtaining it? • What is the most efficient way of verifying a given hypothesis by collecting additional data? • What factors can change in the future, what are possible implications of these changes, and which contingencies should be analyzed? Unclassified/For Official Use Only

7. Intelligence Analysis Workflow Filtering and processing of new intelligence Development of intelligence-collection plans Analysisof key indicators Propagation of inferences New intelligence Intelligencecollection Analysts Unclassified/For Official Use Only

8. UncertaintyManagement Architecture Approved plans forproactive data collection Hypotheses,conclusions, and data-collection plans Analystinterface Value-addedreasoning tools Uncertain situation assessmentand data-collection planning Uncertainty calculus andproactive probe planning Proactiveintelligencecollection Excel extension for the analysis of uncertainty, probes, and proactive data collection Processing ofdata streams Newintelligence Matching of queries and inferences against new data Scalable assessment ofuncertain intelligence Generalintelligencecollection Relational database of uncertaindata and inference rules External API PAINT SUB-SYSTEMS Unclassified/For Official Use Only

9. Functional Components • Uncertainty calculus and probe planning: Analysis of incomplete data, identification of critical uncertainties, and selection of probes; these tools are integrated into Microsoft Excel. • Scalable assessment of uncertain intelligence: A database of incomplete and uncertain facts, uncertain inference rules, and hypotheses, which allows scalable planning of proactive data collection; these tools are integrated into Oracle. • Analyst interface: Integrated access to all system components, which extends the standard Excel interface. • Value-added reasoning tools: Optional tools for the automation of related reasoning tasks, such as entity co-reference, contingency analysis, and adversarial search. Unclassified/For Official Use Only

10. Integration Features • Novel uncertainty analysis tools built on industry-standard Excel and Oracle platforms • Leverages all existing integration features of Excel and Oracle • Familiar user interface allows users of Excel to quickly and easily build task-specific uncertainty analysis spreadsheets • General-purpose Application Programming Interface (API) enables integrations with 3rd party software packages including other PAINT subsystems and components Unclassified/For Official Use Only

11. Analyst GUI Uncertainty analysis Proactive data collection • Representation of probabilitydistributions and qualitativeuncertainty • Uncertainty arithmetic • Representation of probes • Evaluation of probe utility • Automated selection andlaunching of critical probes Situation assessment • Representation of data utility • Tracking utility changesduring data collection • Identification of criticaluncertainties Contingency planning What-if analysis of alternativefuture developments and data-collection plans based on anextension of Excel “scenarios” Internal API Uncertainty database OptionalRAPID tools Processing ofdata streams Uncertainty Calculusand Proactive Probe Planning Microsoft Excel Unclassified/For Official Use Only

12. Proactive probe planning Uncertainty analysis • Representation of probes • Evaluation of probe utility • Automated selection andlaunching of critical probes • Representation of probabilitydistributions and qualitativeuncertainty • Uncertainty arithmetic MICROSOFT EXCEL Situation assessment Contingency planning • Representation of data utility • Tracking utility changesduring data collection • Identification of criticaluncertainties What-if analysis of alternativefuture developments and data-collection plans based on anextension of Excel “scenarios” Internal API Uncertainty database Value-addedreasoning tools Processing ofdata streams Generating Probes to Minimize Uncertainty 2 8 1 10 3 7 4 6 5 9 Unclassified/For Official Use Only

13. Novel Research (1 of 3) • Management of uncertain data: • Semi-automated collection and analysis of uncertain data • Enables analysts to create a database of uncertain knowledge • Track changes in the available data and implications of these changes • Underlying mechanisms include: • reasoning with uncertain data • indexing structures for fast retrieval of exact and approximate matches • inference rules for describing relations among data. Unclassified/For Official Use Only

14. Novel Research (2 of 3) • Hypothesis formulation and validation: • Semi-automated formulation of new hypotheses, their verification, and tracking changes in their estimated validity. • Underlying algorithms include: • fast inference propagation • game-theoretic analysis of goals • possible actions of adversarial groups • automated explanation of inferences to human analysts. Unclassified/For Official Use Only

15. Novel Research (3 of 3) • Data-collection planning: • Identification of critical missing data • Analysis of its utility and costs • Planning of proactive data-collection strategies • We are developing: • active-learning techniques for the identification of key indicators • game-theoretic techniques for the planning of proactive intelligence collection • Analyst assistance for developing plans for resolving critical uncertainties at the lowest possible cost. • mechanisms for the evaluation of trade-offs between the utility and costs of missing data, and contingency analysis of future developments. Unclassified/For Official Use Only

16. Analyst GUI Manual entry, selection, and editing of knowledge Prioritized plans for proactivedata collection Learnedinferencerules RAPID Inference Engine RAPID Proactive Planner Criticaluncertainties Inferredfacts Goals, queries, andhypotheses Evaluation ofhypotheses Querymatches Conflictdetection Database Architecture Uncertainfacts Uncertaininferencerules Semanticnetwork Unclassified/For Official Use Only

17. Does PNACO make airborne toxins? Answer: Probably not, P  7% Unclassified/For Official Use Only