Using Simulation to Study the Protection of Critical Maritime Assets

1. S imulation E xperiments &E fficient D esigns Using Simulation to Study theProtection of Critical Maritime Assets Tom Lucas, Susan Sanchez, and Felix Martinez Operations Research Department Naval Postgraduate School International Maritime Protection Symposium Honolulu, Hawaii 13 December 2005 http://diana.cs.nps.navy.mil/SeedLab

2. Agenda • The SEED Lab • Example Application • Protecting Offshore Oil Assets in the Campeche Sound • Why Simulation? • Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA) • Design of Experiment • Findings

3. SEED Lab Research Team Principle Investigators: Professor Susan Sanchez and Associate Professor Tom Lucas Other Faculty:Senior Lecturer Paul Sanchez Research Assistant Professor Nita Miller Research Assistant Professor Arnie Buss Support:Colonel (ret.) Ed Lesnowicz Thesis Students:More than score…

4. Our Research Goal Assist those in DoD in obtaining insight into uncertain, complex, high-dimensional problems All models are wrong, but some are useful—George Box A model is useful if a better decision is made with the information it adds—Wayne Hughes The purpose of computing is insight, not numbers—Hamming I live for surprise—Gary Horne War in intrinsically unpredictable. At best, we can hope to determine possibilities and probabilities. This implies a certain standard of military judgment…—Marine Corps Doctrinal Publications, Pub 1, Warfighting It’s the analyst, not the model, that produces important useful results. Improve the former before the latter—Seth Bonder

5. Our Research Agenda -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 A -1.0 1.0 0.0 B -1.0 1.0 0.0 C -1.0 1.0 0.0 D -1.0 1.0 0.0 E -1.0 1.0 0.0 F -1.0 1.0 0.0 G -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 • Develop, test, and implement high-dimensional search methods for use in model exploration • Assess search options—theoretically and empirically • Real problems • Thesis students • Help make algorithms available to other “explorers” • MORS Tutorial: Advances in Large-Scale Simulation Experiments • SEED lab: software and algorithms

6. 2000 Brown (Captain, USMC) Human Dimension of Combat 2001 Vinyard (Major, USMC) Reducing Non-monotonicities in Combat Models MORS/Tisdale Winner, MORS Walker Award 2002 Erlenbruch (Captain, German Army) German Peacekeeping Operations MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2002 Pee (Singapore DSTA) Information Superiority and Battle Outcomes MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2002 Wan (Major, Singapore Army) Effects of Human Factors on Combat Outcomes Dickie (Major, Australian Army) Swarming Unmanned Vehicles MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2002 Ipekci (1st Lieutenant, Turkish Army) Guerrilla Warfare MORS/Tisdale Winner 2002 Wu (Lieutenant, USN) Spectral Analysis and Sonification of Simulation Data 2002 Cioppa (Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, PhD) Experimental Designs for High-dimensional Complex Models ASA 3rd Annual Prize for Best Student Paper Applying Stat. to Defense 2003Efimbe (Lieutenant, US Navy) Littoral Combat Ships Protecting Expeditionary Strike Groups 2003 Wolf (Captain, USMC) Urban, Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief Operations MORSS Best Presentation Award, MORS Barchi Prize Finalist 2004 Milton (Lieutenant Commander, US Navy) Logistical Chain of the Seabase MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2004 Allen (Lieutenant, US Navy) Navigational Accuracy of REMUS Unmanned Underwater Vehicle MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2004 Steele (Ensign, US Navy) Unmanned Surface Vehicles 2004 Hakola (Captain, USMC) Convoy Protection 2004 Lindquist (Captain, US Army) Degraded Communication in the Future Force MORS Tisdale Winner 2004 Aydin (1st Lieutenant, Turkish Army) Village Search Operations 2004 Raffetto (Captain, USMC) UAVs in Support of IPB in a Sea-Viking Scenario MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2004 Cason (Captain, USMC) UAVs in Support of Urban Operations 2004 Berner (LCDR, US Navy) Multiple UAVs in Maritime Search and Control 2004 Tan (Singapore S&T) Checkpoint security 2005 Babilot (USMC) DO versus Traditional Force in Urban Terrain 2005 Bain(USMC) Logistics Support for Distributed Ops MORS/Tisdale Finalist 2005 Gun (Turkish Army) Sunni Participation in Iraqi Elections 2005 McMindes (USMC) UAV Survivability 2005 Sanders (USMC) Marine Expeditionary Rifle Squad Coming soon… Dec 2005 Ang (Singapore Technologies Engineering) Increasing Participation and Decreasing Escalation in Elections Dec 2005 Chang (Singapore DSTA) Edge vs. Hierarchical Organizations for Collaborative Tasks Dec 2005 Liang (Singapore DSTA) Cooperative Sensing of the Battlefield Dec 2005 Martinez-Tiburcio (Mexican Navy) Protecting Mexico’s Oil Well Infrastructure Dec 2005 Sulewski (USA) UAVs in Army’s FCS Family of Systems June 2006 Burnett (DoD Civilian) Modeling Human Behavior in SASO Environments 2006 Many more… Student Theses

7. Our Products: State-of-the-art Designs • “A User’s Guide to the Brave New World of Designing Simulation Experiments,” Jack P.C. Kleijnen, Susan M. Sanchez, Thomas W. Lucas, and Thomas M. Cioppa, INFORMS Journal on Computing, Vol. 17, No. 3, 2005, pp. 263-289. • “Efficient Nearly Orthogonal and Space-filling Latin Hypercubes,” Thomas M. Cioppa and Thomas W. Lucas, 2005, Technometrics, forthcoming. • Sanchez, S. M. and P. J. Sanchez, "Very large fractional factorials and central composite designs," ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, forthcoming. • Sanchez, S. M., H. Wan and T. W. Lucas, "A two-phase screening procedure for simulation experiments," Proc. 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, eds. M. E. Kuhl, N. M. Steiger, F. B. Armstrong, and J. A. Joines, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Piscataway, New Jersey, 2005. • Sanchez, S. M., F. Moeeni, and P. J. Sanchez, "So many factors, so little time…Simulation experiments in the frequency domain," International Journal of Production Economics, 2005, forthcoming.

8. Sanchez, Lucas, “Agent-based Simulations: Simple Models, Complex Analyses,” Invited paper, Proc. 2002 Winter Simulation Conference, 116-126. Lucas, Sanchez, Brown, Vinyard, “Better Designs for High-Dimensional Explorations of Distillations,”  Maneuver Warfare Science 2002, Marine Corps Combat Development Command, 2002, 17-46. Vinyard, Lucas, “Exploring Combat Models for Non-monotonicities and Remedies,” PHALANX, 35, No. 1, March 2002, 19, 36-38. Lucas, McGunnigle, “When is Model Complexity Too Much? Illustrating the Benefits of Simple Models with Hughes’ Salvo Equations,” Naval Research Logistics, Vol. 50, April 2003, 197-217. Lucas, Sanchez, Cioppa, Ipekci, “Generating Hypotheses on Fighting the Global War on Terrorism,”  Maneuver Warfare Science 2003, Marine Corps Combat Development Command, 2003, 117-137. Lucas, Sanchez, “Smart Experimental Designs Provide Military Decision-Makers With New Insights From Agent-Based Simulations,” Naval Postgraduate School RESEARCH, 13,2, 20-21, 57-59, 63. Lucas, Sanchez, ““NPS Hosts the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory’s Sixth Project Albert International Workshop,” Lucas, T.W. and S.M. Sanchez, Naval Postgraduate School RESEARCH, 13,2, 45-46. Sanchez, Wu, “Frequency-Based Designs for Terminating Simulation Experiments:  A Peace-enforcement Example,” Proc. 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, 952-959. Brown, Cioppa, “Objective Force Urban Operations Agent Based Simulation Experiment,” Technical Report TRAC-M-TR-03-021, Monterey, CA, June 2003. Cioppa, Brown, Jackson, Muller, Allison, “Military Operations in Urban Terrain Excursions and Analysis With Agent-Based Models,” Maneuver Warfare Science 2003, Quantico, VA, 2003. Cioppa, “Advanced Experimental Designs for Military Simulations,” Technical Report TRAC-M-TR-03-011, Monterey, CA, February 2003. Brown, Cioppa, Lucas, “Agent-based Simulation Supporting Military Analysis,” PHALANX, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sept 2004.Cioppa, Lucas, Sanchez, “Military Applications of Agent-based Simulation,” Proc. 2004 Winter Simulation Conference. Cioppa, Lucas, Sanchez, “Military Applications of Agent-Based Simulations,” Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 171-179 Allen, Buss, Sanchez, “Assessing Obstacle Location Accuracy in the REMUS Unmanned Underwater Vehicle,” Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 940-948. Cioppa, “An Efficient Screening Methodology For a Priori Assessed Non-Influential Factors,” Proc. 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 171-180. Sanchez, “Work Smarter, Not Harder: Guidelines for Designing Simulation Experiments.” Proc. of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, forthcoming. Wolf, Sanchez, Goerger, Brown, “Using Agents to Model Logistics,” under revision for Military Operations Research. Baird, Paulo, Sanchez, Crowder, “ Measuring Information Gain in the Objective Force, under revision for Military Operations Research. Other Publications

9. Resources: The SEED Lab S imulation E xperiments & E fficient D esigns http://diana.cs.nps.navy.mil/SeedLab Check here for: • Lists of student theses (available online) • Spreadsheets & software • Pdf files for several of our publications, publication info for the rest • Links to other resources • Updates

10. The Campeche Sound • More than 83 percent of hydrocarbon exported in Mexico is extracted from this area. • During 2004, PEMEX exported a daily average of 1,844,000 petroleum barrels, of which 78 percent was sent to the United States. • The marine area, where PEMEX is active includes a total surface of 518,390 km2. • There are 243 marine platforms and 2,274 kms of subsurface pipes.

11. Motivation • The USS Cole bombing was a suicide boat attack • bombing attack against (DDG 67) on October 12, 2000 • One of the 2000 millennium attack plots, the attempted bombing of USS The Sullivans • This attack failed when the bombers' boat, overloaded with explosives, began to sink. During Operation Iraqi Freedom, there have also been cases of suicide bombers on boats attackingIraq’s oil facilities.

12. Situation • PEMEX1 and the Mexican Navy maintain parallel schemes of security in the Campeche Sound. • Areas of prevention and exclusion have been firmly established. • In the first area, all boats are put under a system of access control. • In the second area, the authorized navigation of boats to the facilities is allowed only after being verified by units of the Mx Navy 1 Petroleos Mexicanos (Mexican State Agency in charge of the exploration and production of the oil in Mexico)

13. Aerial prevention Exclusion Maritime prevention Exclusion zone A total of 243 marine oil platforms 125 nm Exclusion 175 nm

14. Martinez’s Research Objectives • To verify if the resources of the Mexican Navy in the area are sufficient to maintain satisfactory surveillance and defense of the Campeche Sound. • To determine the most effective tactics, using the Mexican Navy’s current resources, to defend oil resources in the Campeche Sound. • Build a tool for asking what if questions.

15. Current Mexican Navy Resources • 2 HURACAN-class missile ships, SAAR 4.5, with a helicopter • 4 POLARIS-class interceptor boats (90H) • 1 E-2C HAWKEYE Airborne Early Warning aircraft • 1 C-212 AVIOCAR Maritime Patrol Aircraft • 2 MI-17 helicopters • 1 patrolling aircraft L-90 TP REDIGO

16. Radars Approx. Range Radars 1 Traffic control system (7 surface radars)

17. The Threat • Red Force: One to three synchronized terrorist fast-boats, each of which is attempting to destroy an oil platform with explosives (kamikazes). • Measure: P(at least one terrorist success | resources, threats)

18. Potential Distractions • Fishing boats constantly try to penetrate the preventive zone to fish. • Service vessels working in the area.

19. Why Simulation? “[B]ecause of complexity, stochastic relations, and so on, not all real-word problems can be represented adequately in closed-formed models. … Often, in such instances, the only alternative form of modeling and analysis available for the decision maker is simulation” –Winston, Wayne L., Operations Research: Applications and Algorithms, Fourth Edition, Brooks/Cole, 2004.

20. Simulation Tool Real Map in MANA (Map Aware Non-uniform Automata)

21. Design of Experiment • 60 combinations of Mexican Navy resources • 17 possible combinations of the uncontrollable factors: • Number of terrorist boats • Speed of the terrorist boats • Number of fishing ships entering the prevention area during a terrorist attack • 50 replications • 60 × 17 × 50 = 51,000 simulated attacks

22. Regression Tree (all factors)

23. Regression Tree (controllable factors)

24. Future Research • This study focused only on the actual resources of the Mexican Navy in the area. This model could be used to repeat the analysis while including potential Navy resources. • Different enemy courses of actions (COA) and tactics. • The effects of policy changes, such as adjusting the exclusion and prevention areas. • Analysis of the communication systems and networks among the Navy units.

25. Questions

26. Back up

27. The “Curse of Dimensionality” Suppose your factors include “fuel”, “air” and “spark”… You’ll NEVER find “fire” by examining only two at a time. 2^100 is forever--Major General Jasper Welch

28. Meeting the Challenge -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 A -1.0 1.0 0.0 B -1.0 1.0 0.0 C -1.0 1.0 0.0 D -1.0 1.0 0.0 E -1.0 1.0 0.0 F -1.0 1.0 0.0 G -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 Explore more factors • Efficient designs run in hours instead of centuries Examine trade-offs • Space-filling designs provide information throughout the space Learn as you go • Adapt sampling to reflect insights gained

29. Analyzing the Data Mean(Alleg1Cas(blue)) Each Pair Student’s t 0.05 Log twd concealment • Standard statistical graphics tools (regression trees, 3-D scatter plots, contour plots, plots of average results for a single factors, interaction profiles) can be used to gain insights from the data.