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LWG Assessment of DOE’s Energy Portfolio

LWG Assessment of DOE’s Energy Portfolio . George Crabtree Argonne National Laboratory. Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee Aug 3, 2006. Motivation.

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LWG Assessment of DOE’s Energy Portfolio

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  1. LWG Assessment of DOE’s Energy Portfolio George Crabtree Argonne National Laboratory Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee Aug 3, 2006

  2. Motivation “We have not done as good a job as we should in coordinating the activities of the ESE offices. We have not done as good a job as we should in performing the crosscutting analysis we need to justify our budgets to the Congress.” David Garman Under Secretary for Energy, Science and Environment Senate Confirmation Hearing April 6, 2005

  3. LWG Organization • Under Secretaries for S&T • Energy • Science David Garman Ray Orbach John SullivanAssociate Under Secretary for EnergyJames Decker Deputy Director, Office of ScienceCo-Chairs R&D Council EERE, FE, NE, OE, Science (Pat Dehmer) Don McConnell George Crabtree Co-Chairs~ 30 participants from Nat’l Labs S&T Integration Working Group S&T Laboratory Working Group S&T Analysts Ad-Hoc S&T Analysis Teams

  4. LWG Participants Part I: Context Charryl L Berger (LANL) Mary Neu (LANL) James Ekmann (NETL) Joe Strakey (NETL) Bobi Garrett (NREL) Ray Stults (NREL) Gordon Michaels (ORNL) James Roberto (ORNL) Mike Davis (PNNL) Doug Ray (PNNL) Margie Tatro (SNL) Terry Michalske (SNL) Paul Deason – SRNL *Don McConnell (Battelle/PNNL) *George Crabtree (ANL) Mark Peters (ANL) J. Murray Gibson (ANL) John (Patrick) Looney (BNL) Doon Gibbs (BNL) Ralph Bennett (INL) J.W. (Bill) Rogers (INL) Mark Levine (LBNL) Heinz Frei (LBNL) Jane C. S. Long (LLNL) Julio Friedmann (LLNL) *Co-Chairs

  5. Program Scope

  6. Charge to Laboratory Working Group (LWG)

  7. Multi-year Process FY05 (for FY07 programs) applied energy programs, qualitative impact FY06: (for FY08 programs) + quantitative impact, relation to science, risk FY07 (for FY09 cycle) + model analysis FY08 (for FY10 cycle)

  8. The Context: Advancing Four, Broad National Energy Policy Goals • Diversify our energy mix and reduce dependence on foreign petroleum, thereby reducing vulnerability to disruption and increasing the flexibility of the marketto meet U.S. needs • Reduce greenhouse gas emissionsand other environmental impacts(water use, land use, criteria pollutants) from our energy production and use • Create a more flexible, more reliableand higher capacity U.S. energy infrastructure, thereby improving energy services throughout the economy, enabling use of diverse sources, and improving robustness against disruption • Improve the energy productivity(or energy efficiency) of the U.S. economy

  9. “From the LWG Report” Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio • The highest leverage approach to reducing petroleum imports lies in transportation fuel switching and efficiency improvements • DOE’s portfolio includes technology options that offer routes to near to mid term material impact (clean Diesel, hybrids, ethanol) • Attractive longer-term options may be feasible with significant, but likely achievable, scientific advances (cellulosic ethanol, fuel cells, energy storage) • Material reductions in carbon emissions depend on progress in zero net emission electric generation options, and fuel switching / efficiency improvements throughout the economy • DOE’s applied R&D portfolio can materially improve available technology options in the near to mid term (building technology, hybrid electric drives, biofuels, advance nuclear, zero emissions fossil) • Emerging scientific advances offer credible promise of transforming / breakthrough technologies in the longer term (Utility scale solar, bio-energy feedstocks, bio-mimetic energy conversion)

  10. “From the LWG Report” Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio • Several areas of science offer great promise for advances that could transform energy technology • Design and synthesis of materials exploiting nanoscale understanding • Predictive modeling of complex systems • Scattering facilities for in-situ molecular characterization • Two areas of science may merit consideration for increased attention within the portfolio • Systems and synthetic biology • Catalysis / separations of chemical transformations

  11. “From the LWG Report” Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio • There are two significant “gaps” in the portfolio that may retard progress towards national goals: • CO2 sequestration science & technology • Next-generation electric grid technologies • Refining R&D portfolio management practices could accelerate progress and create a “pipeline” of innovations targeted on national priorities • Focus on defining critical outcomes to impact national goals • Strengthen horizontal / crosscutting integration • Align research strategies across the spectrum of technology maturity from discovery to technology deployment • Consider “use-inspired” science initiatives to drive breakthrough discoveries into applications

  12. “From the LWG Report” Reductions in petroleum imports pivot on transportation fuel switching and vehicle energy efficiency improvements Transportation • Ethanol from sugar • Cellulosic ethanol • Bio-diesel Biofuels • Oil Shales • Coal Liquifaction • Enhanced oil recovery • Heavy crude processing Alternative Liquids Fuel switching Electric Substitution • • Hybridization • Electrical energy storage • Auxiliary power options Propulsion Options • High Efficiency Diesels • Hybridization• Plug-in hybrids Efficiency • Lightweight structures / materials • Electrification of auxiliaries • Efficient conversion systems Vehicle Systems

  13. “From the LWG Report” Advances in the electrical system play a major role in achieving national goals for reducing environmental impacts from energy and increasing energy reliability Electricity System • ALWR • Closed fuel cycle • International reactor • High temperature reactor • LWR Nuclear • Future Gen • Sequestration • Advanced gasification • Zero-emission combustion Zero emission fossil Fuel switch • Wind – low speed & off-shore • Photovoltaic• Concentrating solar • Storage • Bio power Renewable Advanced T&Dcomponents • Energy storage • High temperature superconductivity• Power electronics • Fault current limiters Reliable & secure delivery • Grid monitoring • Computational modeling • Real time visualization Visualization & modeling • DG interconnection • MicroGrids • Sensors & real-time controls Responsive loads & real-time controls • Zero-energy buildings • Solid-state lighting• Efficient integrated system Buildings Efficiency • Recycle & gasification by-product • Efficient processing • Novel manufacturing systems • Efficient conversion systems Industrial

  14. “From the LWG Report” Mission impact requires translation from discovery to innovation to the market • DOE R&D faces two broadly recognized gaps: • Translation of new concepts arising out of basic research to conceptual stage but targeted R&D • Translation of near-mature technologies from working prototypes to commercial deployment • Both of these are “bi-directional” issues • Basic science creates entirely new technology possibilities • Technology efforts identify key issues requiring improved scientific understanding or new approaches • Improving technology performance suggests new deployment opportunities • Market feedback helps set technology performance requirements

  15. “From the LWG Report” DiscoveryResearch Use-inspiredBasic Research Applied Research Technology Maturation and Deployment The LWG viewed energy S&T as a continuum with critical roles for DOE’s Science and Applied Energy portfolios • Basic research for fundamental new understanding, the science grand challenges • Development of new tools, techniques, and facilities, including those for advanced modeling and computation • Basic researchfor new understanding specifically to overcome short-term showstoppers in the DOE technology programs • Research with the goal of meeting technical targets, with emphasison the development, performance, cost reduction, and durability of materials and components oron efficient processes • Proof of technology concept • Co-development • Scale-up research • At-scale Demonstration • Cost reduction • Prototyping • Manufacturing R&D • Deployment support • Goal: practical targets • Mandate: restricted to target • Focus: performance • Metric: milestone achievement • Goal: new knowledge / understanding • Mandate: open-ended • Focus: phenomena • Metric: knowledge generation Office of Science Applied Energy Programs

  16. Issues for Next Cycle: Technology • Interaction of energy sources: “fuel switching” • Coal-gas-nuclear-renewable for electricity • Petroleum-biofuel for transportation • Alternative transportation energy options • Interaction of energy chains • Electricity-petroleum-natural gas-biofuel-hydrogen • Quantitative analysis of energy system • Market inertia, ripple effect across sources and chains

  17. Issues for Next Cycle: Science • Greater analysis of science for energy solutions • Achieve revolutionary breakthroughs, not evolutionary increments: factor of 10, not 10% • Look beyond existing technology-centric directions • New approaches for managing the basic-applied interface • Establish greater synergy • Maintain separate identities • Emphasize discovery science distinct from use-inspired basic research • Advance the frontier - small, fast, complex, . . . • New knowledge  unexpected new uses • What are the grand challenges of discovery science?

  18. The role of science Basic Science Vision Incremental advances in the state of the art of existing energy technologies will not meet the nation's future energy and environmental security challenges. Revolutionary innovations are needed, both in the energy technologies themselves and in our understanding of the fundamental science that enables their operation. Vibrant fundamental science programs generate revolutionary innovations in two ways: (i) by discovery-driven advances in the frontier of knowledge, enabling new paradigms and unexpected opportunities for disruptive energy technologies, and (ii) by use-inspired research targeting specific areas where incomplete understanding blocks technological progress. DOE should maintain strong programs in both areas that sustain US leadership in science. Basic-applied interactions are a fertile source of innovation. DOE should develop new ways to stimulate translational research and creative connections across the basic-applied interface.

  19. Basic Science Frontiers High Performance Materials Science at the nanoscale, especially low-dimensional systems Dynamics of physical, chemical and biological phenomena Emergent behavior in complex systems, from high Tc superconductors to pattern formation in chemical solutions to self-assembly and self-repair Catalysis and control of chemical transformation Molecular to systems level understanding of living systems Biomimetics and photobiological energy conversion Molecular scale understanding of interfacial science, separations, and permeability in physical systems and membranes New Tools for: In situ molecular characterization Theory/Computation/Numerical Applications

  20. Back up slides

  21. “From the LWG Report” Supply Advanced Nuclear Alternative Liquid Fuels Zero Emission Fossil Electric Generation Fuel Gridof the Future Renewable Energy Hydrogen & GasInfrastructure Bioenergy/Chemicals Fusion Energy Our analyses focused on “innovation strands” augmented by cross-cutting “system” assessments Distribution Use Electric Gridof the Future Industrial Technologies Advanced Building Systems Vehicle Technologies Future Electricity Systems Assessment Future Liquid Fuels Systems Assessment Future Hydrogen & Gaseous Fuels Systems Assessment Cross-cutting / Enabling Science and Technology Opportunities & Challenges

  22. Goal 1: Energy Supply DiversityTransportation efficiency & fuel switching offer the most significant opportunities to reduce oil imports Maximum Market Potential Other3 quads 6% Industrial 11 quads 21% * Transportation37 quads 73% Three options offer the most significant opportunities to offset transportation fuel demands on imported petroleum 2025 Petroleum Demand 51 Quads Additional opportunities exist to offset industrial demand Maximum Market Potential * Alternative liquids outlook is based on current industry estimates

  23. 2152 mmt carbon Goal 2: Significant reductions in CO2 emissions require a broad suite of options Non Trans Fuel & Feedstocks 556 mmt Electricity 889 mmt Projected 2025 Carbon Emissions In million metric tons (mmt) Transportation, 706 mmt Emerging fuel options require assessment on a Life Cycle Basis Point of Use Basis Bioethanol * Alternative Liquids * * Vectors are directionally correct Magnitude estimated pending life cycle emission analysis

  24. Other 0.8 quads, 3% Buildings9.4 quads 37% Electric Utilities 5.4 quads, 21% Industry 10.2 quads 39% Natural Gas Demand in 2025 25.8 Quads Options for addressing CO2 also offer benefits in reducing the demand for natural gas imports Alternative electric generation options offers offsets to increasing natural gas imports

  25. Basic-Applied Research What are the goals? Translation of applications from basic to applied 50% efficient quantum dot solar cell Cost competitive superconducting wire Develop disruptive approach to grand energy challenges Make an electronic switch  information revolution Store 24 GWh of electrical energy for 24 hours Personal transportation at 1/10th cost of cars What are the attributes? Integrated basic-applied PI teams Integrated basic-applied management teams Tap the best scientists/engineers: innovative thinkers, receptive to new ideas and people Objectives are innovation driven, not time-scale driven Stable program: 10+ year life International network of workshops and visitors to create community and stimulate fresh perspective Periodic review by top scientists/engineers outside DOE Examine other innovation machines for organizational inspiration: DARPA, Bell Labs, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Xerox Parc

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