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Jonathan Smith and Cal Ghee Migration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD

Centre for Demography. Improving internal migration estimates of students. Jonathan Smith and Cal Ghee Migration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD. Migration Statistics Improvement Programme. Major cross government programme Package of improvements to migration statistics introduced in 2007

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Jonathan Smith and Cal Ghee Migration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD

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  1. Centre for Demography Improving internal migration estimates of students Jonathan Smith and Cal Ghee Migration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD

  2. Migration Statistics Improvement Programme Major cross government programme Package of improvements to migration statistics introduced in 2007 Next set of changes to be introduced in May 2010 Revised population estimates mid-2002 to mid-2008 Consultation on improvements begins November 2009

  3. Summary Context Proposed improvements using data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) Indicative results Uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

  4. Context

  5. Context: HE student numbers 2007/08 • 2.3 million HE students • 0.65 million 1st year undergraduates within England & Wales • Represents 1% of the total England & Wales population

  6. Current population estimates method

  7. Current population estimates method Estimated resident population at time T Remove special populations – UK armed forces, foreign armed forces, prisoners, school boarders Age-on population by 1 year Natural Change – add births, subtract deaths International migration – add inflows, subtract outflows Internal migration – add inflows, subtract outflows Add special populations back in Estimated resident population at time T+1

  8. Accuracy of student migration estimates

  9. Why the focus on student migration? Some young people, particularly young men, do not change their GP registration soon after they move Students a sub-set of young people, who necessarily cluster in certain areas of the country Affects estimation of students moving to university and moving away after their studies

  10. Comparison of stocks - 2001

  11. Former students moving out of example area

  12. Former students moving out of example area

  13. Former students moving out of example area

  14. Former students moving out of example area

  15. Former students moving out of example area

  16. Former students moving out of example area

  17. Former students moving out of example area

  18. Comparison of Census and mid-2007 estimates

  19. Proposed improvements using data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

  20. Identifying migration moves using Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data • Independent record of moves to university • Domicile address • Term-time address (from 2007/08) • Age and sex • Wide range of other variables • Course length • Level of study • Start date / leave date • Nationality

  21. Access to Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data • Identifiable record level data • Establishing legal gateway • Process complete by end 2009 • Anonymised data • Received March 2009 • Used as the basis for improved internal migration estimates (May 2010)

  22. Proposed student migration adjustments • Estimates of students going to university • Estimates of former students leaving university • Creating a back series for the above for estimates for 2002 – 2007 • Creating a counter-adjustment to account for when moves are eventually made

  23. Estimates of students going to university

  24. Estimates of former students leaving university HESA data does not record where former students move to How many people: Finish studying Move to a different LA And don’t change registration with a GP Remove former students from the LAs they were previously resident in and allocate them to the LAs they move to

  25. Estimates of former students leaving university • Range of sources used for the adjustment • HESA • 2001 Census • Patient register of moves • Necessary to assume that patterns have remained consistent since 2001

  26. Indicative results

  27. 2007/08 indicative results for England and Wales

  28. Indicative results: Ten largest increases

  29. Indicative results: Ten largest decreases

  30. Indicative results: Adjustment for former students to first destinations

  31. Indicative results: Ceredigion mid 2007 population

  32. Additional uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

  33. Further research using HESA data Internal Migration Record linkage between patient registers and HESA data to identify and adjust for moves missed International Migration Foreign students who don’t live in households and so are not sampled in the Labour Force Survey Record linkage between international migrants identified on patient registers and HESA data Identification of foreign students likely to be short-term migrants

  34. Likely short-term migrants on HESA data (2007/08)

  35. Summary Accuracy of internal migration estimates of students Availability of HESA data on student’s term-time address Proposed adjustment for moves at beginning and end of study Implemented into revised population estimates (mid-2002 to mid-2008) Wider research planned using HESA data

  36. Questions?

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