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Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme. UNECE Migration Work Session 18 October 2012 Paul Vickers, Office for National Statistics, UK. Long-term Total International Migration to UK by Citizenship Group (1991 -2009). Pre-MSIP. MSIP. MSIP Benefits. MSIP Objectives.

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Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

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  1. Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme UNECE Migration Work Session 18 October 2012 Paul Vickers, Office for National Statistics, UK

  2. Long-term Total International Migration to UK by Citizenship Group (1991 -2009)

  3. Pre-MSIP

  4. MSIP

  5. MSIP Benefits

  6. MSIP Objectives

  7. LA immigration distributional improvements Current* Improved National Immigration Estimate (IPS) Distribute using 3 yr LFS average Region/UK country Intermediate Geography Use 3 yr IPS average Model-based distribution Distribute using administrative data Local Authority * For non-London LAs. A similar , but slightly more complex method is used for London LAs

  8. Returning Migrants UK Born Non-UK Born Others Children 17-59 60+ Workers Students Migrant Workers Scan HESA (Higher Education) BIS/WG (Further Education) GP Patient Register: ‘Flag 4s’ Asylum Seekers (NASS) L2 2001 Census distribution LTM Worker distribution STM Student Distribution/ estimate LTM Student distribution Improved immigration distribution model IPS England and Wales Estimate (plus switcher adjustments) Residual (including short-term migrants Local Authority Immigration (LTIM) estimates

  9. Comparison of percentage differences between the rolled-forward population estimates and the Census-based MYEs

  10. Case Study Manchester

  11. Plausibility Ranges Administrative sources High estimate Explore and Combine Low estimate

  12. Conceptual Framework

  13. Summary • Pre-MSIP • Now

  14. Future Priorities • E-Borders • Internal migration • Emigration • Reconciliation of new methods with Census • National Statistics Status for short-term immigration estimates at local authority level • Exploiting the conceptual framework • Plausibility ranges for other age groups

  15. Discussion

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