World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

1. WMO World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water Climate- Services for Disaster Risk Management By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO Geoffrey Love, Ph.D. Director of Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Departments CCL Technical Conference 16-18 February, 2010 Antalya, Turkey www.wmo.int

2. Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness • In most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!) • In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan) • New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues) • International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological, hydrological and climate services!

3. Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Loss of life Number of events Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Economic losses 90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

4. Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

5. Disasters impacts many sectors! Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Need for Multi-sectoral riskmanagement Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise ! Energy Aral Sea Transportation Water Resource Management Intensity Strong Wind People Agriculture Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Drought Heatwaves Frequency

6. Six Components of An Effective National Disaster Risk ManagementFramework Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency) 1 Risk Assessment Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Preparedness (saving lives):early warning systems emergency planning and response Prevention (Reduce economic losses):Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) 2 CATastrophe insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives 5 3 4 Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training across agencies 6

7. Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks Number of lives at risk • $ at risk • Destruction of buildings and infrastructure • Reduction in crop yields • Business interruption • Impacts: • population density • agricultural land • urban grid • Infrastructure • Businesses Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping Need for historical and real time data Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis tools Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset and exposure information

8. Key Input database Model Product Possible Inputs Populationdistribution Local data Economic data Estimating the Risk with Consideration for Climate Variability and Changes! 1: Hazard Assessment Historical Statisitical hazard analysis events Future climate hazard trends (seasonal, inter annual, decadal) + 1: Hazard Mapping Hazard Model Hazardestimate Hazardmaps Land cover and elevation Vulnerability /Damage Model Risk maps 3: Risk Mapping & Loss Estimation Exposures Probable Loss estimate , 2: Damage Functions Cost Benefit Portfoliolosses / mitigation options 2: Asset Inventory and Valuation Scenario Events 4: Risk Atlas and Risk Management tools

9. Risk Assessment Requires a Variety of Climate Services…. • Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata • Statistical hazard analysis and mapping tools • Forward looking hazard trend analysis - Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts - Probabilitic climate forecastsand long-term hazard trend analysis (seasonal to interannual, decadal)

10. WMO 2006 Country-level DRR Survey Indicates that …. Over 70 % of NMHS are challenged in supporting risk assessment!!! • Main needs are: • Modernisation of observation networks • Data rescue • Data management systems • Maintaining standardhistorical hazard database and metadata • Hazard analysis and mapping tools • Statistical analysis • Climate modelling Source:2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

11. Increasingly more countries are developping Early Warning Systems for fast on-set events…. 1 National Government DRR coordination mechanisms Local Governmentresponsible for emergency preparedness and response Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 4 Warning dissemination feedback Warning Dissemination 4 feedback 5 5 Community Emergency Plans and Prepared 3 Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries 4 Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc.) 2 Warning dissemination feedback 5

12. WMO has partnered up with other agencies to Document Good Practices and develop Guidelines for Early Warning Systems Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles Synthesis of First set of Good Practices (5 more good practices on the way)Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme France “Vigilance System” Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Germany The Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System First EWS Publication of a seriesbeing published by WMO and Springer Verlag in 2010

13. Loss of life from hydro-meteorological disasters are decreasing… BUT economic losses are on the way up! Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

14. …. to support sectoral risk assessment and management! Infrastructure and Urban planning Land zoning Insurance / Finance Agricultural productivity and food security Tourism Health epidemics Water resource management Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools provide unprecedented opportunities

15. Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms Which Risks? What type of Financial tools? Who Could Benefit? Requirements for Hydro-Met Services? Financial risks CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities Other emerging products Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!) Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy) Government Companies Individuals Other WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

16. WMO Workshop onCatastrophe and Weather-Indexed Insurance December 2007, WMO HQ Participants:(8 re-insurers, 13 Meteorological Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA) USER Perspectives were discussed: • Information requirements (data and forecasts): • Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data • Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??) • Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement) • Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts • Climate Forecasting and Long term trend analysis (reporting on climate risk, solvency analysis and long-term strategy) • Technical support and Service delivery needs http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

17. Major Initiatives Underway for Development of Climate Services for (Re)Insurance • Drivers are • Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU) for the companies to report of their climate risk • Industry: Funding research and partnering with climate research community to develop relevant climate services • Climate Community and Met services: Vary receptive and have initiated various projects and activities (UK Met Office, NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, U of Reading, U of Exeter, Princeton Univ, and many more) • WMO is engaging to facilitate more extended collaboration and support the scaling up these initiatives for benefit of more countries around the world

18. Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction(Many other examples exist) DECISION MAKERS • Emergency Services • Government Authorities • Insurance • Public, Media • Local – National Government • Insurance • Suppliers • Public, Media • Urban planners • Local to national Governments • Banks • Insurance • Negotiators • Parlimentarian • Local/nationalgovernments • Private sector • Urban & coastal Emergency Preparedness • Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds • Strategic Planning • Building codes • Infrastructure & Urban Development and Retrofitting • Land Zoning and Planning • International negotiations and agreements • National policies and legilation DECISIONS • Emergency planning activation and response • Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses SERVICES Future Decadal trend analysis: of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process Short to medterm weather forecasts: Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings Probabilistic seasonal forecasts: Probabilities of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Next hour to 10 days Decade Season to year Long term Scenarios

19. WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for DRM • Identification of various user-communities and their requirements • (eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance) • Increased investments in observations, data rescue programmes and statistical analysis of hazards • Climate forecasting technologies (seasonal, interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunity for improved sectoral planning for DRR • Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM • Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools • Developing climate related information and decision tools for DRR

20. Managing Disaster and related Climate Risks DRR National/Regional Projects (2007 – Present) Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO Central Asia and Caucasus WMO Shanghai MH-EWS Demo South East Europe South East Asia Central America and Caribbean SADC Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in Multi-Hazard EWS

21. Key Messages: • Disaster and Climate Risk Management are interlinked development issues • Development of Climate Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming • There is need for: • Historical and real-time hazard databases and statistical hazard analysis tools • Climate Research and Modeling targeting DRR applications • Identification, segmentation of users and understanding of their needs and requirements (public and private sectors) • Decision tools based on climate/disaster risk assessment for various sectors

22. For more information please contact Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters

23. Leslie Malone Scientific Officer Climate Prediction & Adaptation Branch Climate & Water Department World Meteorological Organization Tel: 41.22.730.8220 Fax: 41.22.730.8042 Email: LMalone@wmo.int Thank you Merci Спасибо Gracias شكرا 谢 谢