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Bruce Edmonds Centre for Policy Modelling Manchester Metropolitan University

Participatory Policy Modelling @ the FuturICT “Interactive Observatories” Meeting 16 th June 2011. Bruce Edmonds Centre for Policy Modelling Manchester Metropolitan University. Two Worlds – Five Meanings. Empirical Ultimate Goal is Agreement with Observed (Truth)

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Bruce Edmonds Centre for Policy Modelling Manchester Metropolitan University

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  1. Participatory Policy Modelling@ the FuturICT “Interactive Observatories” Meeting16th June 2011 Bruce EdmondsCentre for Policy ModellingManchester Metropolitan University

  2. Two Worlds – Five Meanings Empirical • Ultimate Goal is Agreement with Observed (Truth) • Modeller also has an idea of what the model is and how it works Instrumental • Ultimate Goal is in Final Outcomes (Usefulness) • Decisions justified by a communicable causal story Policy Advisor Modeller Tighter loop = participatory modelling • Model • Labels/Documentation may be different from all of the above! Participatory Policy Modelling, Bruce Edmonds, FuturICT Meeting, Zurich, June 16th 2011, slide 2

  3. A tighter loop involving stakeholders... • Stakeholders are involved in parts of the “modelling” loop: criticising model, providing data, specifying model, determining goal etc. • Involvement comes from: relevance to their goals, having some effect/control, quickly seeing the results, feeling involved, not onerous, being situated in their lives • This inevitably means a loss of control by modellers! This is unavoidably political. • A radical move: giving this power more directly to people rather than their representatives Participatory Policy Modelling, Bruce Edmonds, FuturICT Meeting, Zurich, June 16th 2011, slide 3

  4. A Multi-Level Vision of PPM Empirical Input Feedback on Use Top-level Policy Advisors, Academics, Official Stats. Top-level PM Top-level Policy Makers ContinualDocking Pressure groups, Qual. Data, Academics Region Specific PM Topic Specific PM Regional-level Policy Makers, Stakeholders ContinualDocking ContinualDocking Citizen-level PM Citizen-level PM Local Stakeholders, activists Crowd sourcing/input, individuals Citizen-level PM Citizen-level PM Participatory Policy Modelling, Bruce Edmonds, FuturICT Meeting, Zurich, June 16th 2011, slide 4

  5. Consequences • Different models being “pulled” in different ways by different groups, inputs and needs • Continual re-modelling to keep models ‘docked’ with each other and to incorporate new observed processes (maybe with a distributed ‘wiki’-like structure) • A lot of work by stakeholders as well as researchers • A lot of data of ALL levels and kinds: textual, anecdotal, network, aggregate statistical, mass data, time-series etc. Participatory Policy Modelling, Bruce Edmonds, FuturICT Meeting, Zurich, June 16th 2011, slide 5

  6. Summary of PPM@FuturICT • Any representation has different meanings and different uses for different groups (eg. academics, policy makers) • Deep, frequent interaction brings these closer (eg. openness, relevance, control), but tensions will remain • Bringing parts of the policy making process into the hands of stakeholders is unavoidablypolitical • Pros: more bottom-up information into process, more democratic, more flexible, more relevant • Cons: academics/policy makers may lose control, many contradictory viewpoints, drift away from evidence • Many related models at different levels are probably necessary but need to be continually kept ‘docked’ • More study, understanding and facilitation of the academicpolicy interaction needed Participatory Policy Modelling, Bruce Edmonds, FuturICT Meeting, Zurich, June 16th 2011, slide 6

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