Verification of cosmo 2 with a mobile wind profiler
Download
1 / 25

Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profiler - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 114 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profiler. Validation studies of project CN-MET. Christophe Hug, Pirmin Kaufmann , Guy de Morsier WG5 Meeting 7 th of September 2009. Project CN-MET I – The Context.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha

Download Presentation

Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profiler

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profiler

Validation studies of project CN-MET

Christophe Hug, Pirmin Kaufmann, Guy de Morsier

WG5 Meeting 7th of September 2009


Project CN-MET I – The Context

  • MeteoSwiss project conducted for the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI

  • Replacement (and improvement) of the current emergency preparedness tool for the Swiss nuclear power plants (NPP)

    • Current tool is based on empirical profiles and tower measurements (Windbank) to provide input for dispersion model

    • The tower will be progressively dismantled starting in September 2009

    • COSMO-2 data replace the measurements as input for dispersion models of ENSI


CN-METII – The network

St. Chrischona

Leibstadt

Kleindöttingen

Beznau

Schaffhausen

Grenchen

Uetliberg

Mühleberg

Mühleberg

Payerne

Gösgen

Stockeren

Bantiger


CN-MET III – The Requirements

  • Accuracy requirement set by the specification document for the CN-MET project (HSK-ENSI 2005)

    • Wind direction (dd) for wind speed > 2 m s-195% quantile within ± 20°

    • Wind speed from 2 m s-1 to 10 m s-195% quantile of the absolute error within ± 1 m s-1

    • Wind speed larger than 10 m s-195% quantile of the relative error within ± 10%


Model and real topography


Wind profiler in Kleindöttingen (KDT)

  • H = 205 m high-mode

  • H = 72 m low-mode

  • Measurement:

    • 675 – 4773 m MSLhigh-mode

    • 440 – 1452 m MSLlow-mode

    • Height of site: 321 m MSL

Manufacturer specifications:

wind direction ± 10°wind speed ± 1 m/s


Wind profiler Sports Club Zeus (ZES)


Verification method

  • Interpolation of

    • wind profiler data onto model levels (KDT) or

    • model data onto wind profiler levels (ZES)

  • Verification of wind speed and wind direction

    • 30 min time step (KDT)

    • 60 min time step (ZES)

  • Separate verification for profiler high-mode and low-mode

  • Focus on the forecast lead times +00 to +06 h


Normal distribution ?

Both wind speed and wind direction distribution fail the Lilliefors test.

Normal probability plots make it obvious for wind direction.

For wind direction and speed there are too many outliers.


KDT – High-mode wind direction

High-mode

Wind direction

ff ≥ 2 m/s


ZES – High-mode wind direction

High-mode

Wind direction

ff >= 2 m/s


KDT – Low-mode wind direction

Low-mode

Wind direction

ff ≥ 2 m/s


ZES – Low-mode wind direction

Low-mode

Wind direction

ff >= 2 m/s


KDT – High-mode wind speed

High-mode

Wind speed

ff <10 m/s


ZES – High-mode wind speed

High-mode

Wind speed

ff < 10 m/s


KDT – Low-mode wind speed

Low-mode

Wind speed

ff ≤ 10 m/s


ZES – Low-mode wind speed

Low-mode

Wind speed

ff < 10 m/s


KDT – High-mode realtive wind speed

High-mode

Wind speed

ff ≥ 10 m/s


Histograms and scatterplots – all levels

0’

Wind direction

High-mode

ff ≥ 2 m/s

Wind direction

High-mode

ff ≥ 2 m/s


Outliers during the campaign High-Mode (1)


Case 14 – 15 Aug. 2008 (outlier)

Foehn in green


Verification in KDT with WP (dd)

LEI

BEZ


Verification in KDT with WP (ff)

LEI

BEZ


Conclusions

  • The verification scores of COSMO-2 with wind profiler depends on the location of the profiler.

  • In average COSMO-2 forecasts are able to reproduce the situation in KDT and ZES

  • The tails of the error distribution is larger than for a normal distribution, due to outliers that are always part of a numerical forecast.

  • Comparison with tower measurements shows similar or mostly better results than with wind profiler.

Thank you.


ad
  • Login