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Long-term trends of verification results for COSMO-EU

Long-term trends of verification results for COSMO-EU. Ulrich Damrath. Overview. Trend for single elements and valid times Temperature and extreme temperatures Dew point depression Wind Cloud cover (total cloud cover and cloud cover of low clouds) The COSMO Index current state

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Long-term trends of verification results for COSMO-EU

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  1. Long-term trends of verification results for COSMO-EU Ulrich Damrath

  2. Overview • Trend for single elements and valid times • Temperature and extreme temperatures • Dew point depression • Wind • Cloud cover (total cloud cover and cloud cover of low clouds) • The COSMO Index • current state • RMSE or STDV for temperature?

  3. Valid time 00 UTC Total cloud cover _____ Cloud cover above 2 Octa (Cl.1) .......... Cloud cover above 6 Octa (Cl.2) Cloud cover of low clouds

  4. Valid time 06 UTC Total cloud cover _____ Cloud cover above 2 Octa (Cl.1) .......... Cloud cover above 6 Octa (Cl.2) Cloud cover of low clouds

  5. Valid time 12 UTC Total cloud cover _____ Cloud cover above 2 Octa (Cl.1) .......... Cloud cover above 6 Octa (Cl.2) Cloud cover of low clouds

  6. Valid time 18 UTC Total cloud cover _____ Cloud cover above 2 Octa (Cl.1) .......... Cloud cover above 6 Octa (Cl.2) Cloud cover of low clouds

  7. Time series of the COSI: State May 2010 Stand Mai 2010

  8. Time series of the COSI: State May 2010 Stand Mai 2010

  9. Time series of the COSI: Vector wind day 1 Stand Mai 2010

  10. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 1

  11. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 2 Stand Mai 2010

  12. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 3 Stand Mai 2010

  13. Time series of the COSI: State May 2010 (STDV used for T2m instead of RMSE) Stand Mai 2010

  14. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 1 (STDV used for T2m instead of RMSE) Stand Mai 2010

  15. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 2 (STDV used for T2m instead of RMSE) Stand Mai 2010

  16. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 3 (STDV used for T2m instead of RMSE) Stand Mai 2010

  17. Summary • Trend for single elements and valid times • The effect of z0 modification can be seen clearly for temperature and dew point depression. • The effect of the new SSO scheme can be seen clearly for wind. • There is now obvious trend for cloud cover. • The negative trend for low clouds during the last two years has to be examinated. • Positive trends for precipitation can be found especially fir verification using superobservations. • The COSMO Index • We are happy for the positive trend in general! • We are sad about the problems with temperature during strong winter periods!

  18. One open problem:Temperature forecast over melting snow

  19. One open problem:Temperature forecast over melting snow

  20. Next open problem:Forecasts of gusts near cold fronts or squall lines

  21. Next open problem:Forecasts of gusts near cold fronts or squall linesVerificationmeteogram from 12.07.2010 00 UTC

  22. Next open problem:Forecasts of gusts near cold fronts or squall linesVerificationmeteogram from 03.07.2010 00 UTC

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