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World Energy Outlook: Key Trends. Pawel Olejarnik Research Analyst IEA Economic Analysis Division. The Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand. 18 000. Other renewables. Nuclear. 16 000. Biomass. 14 000. Gas. 12 000. 10 000. Mtoe. Coal. 8 000. 6 000. 4 000. Oil. 2 000.

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World Energy Outlook: Key Trends

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World energy outlook key trends

World Energy Outlook: Key Trends

Pawel Olejarnik

Research Analyst

IEA Economic Analysis Division


The reference scenario world primary energy demand

The Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand

18 000

Other renewables

Nuclear

16 000

Biomass

14 000

Gas

12 000

10 000

Mtoe

Coal

8 000

6 000

4 000

Oil

2 000

0

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms


Reference scenario increase in world oil supply 2004 2030

Reference Scenario:Increase in World Oil Supply, 2004-2030

25

20

Other

15

mb/d

Iran

10

Iraq

5

S.Arabia

0

OPEC conventional

Non-conventional

Non-OPEC

conventional

The share of OPEC in world oil supply increases sharply as conventional non-OPEC production peaks towards the middle of next decade


Proven natural gas reserves

Proven Natural Gas Reserves

Gas reserves are concentrated in FSU and MENA regions – Russia and Iran together account almost half of global gas reserves


Reference scenario world incremental electricity generation by fuel

Reference Scenario:World Incremental Electricity Generation by Fuel

4 500

4 000

3 500

3 000

2 500

TWh

2 000

1 500

1 000

500

0

- 500

2004-2015

2015-2030

Oil

Nuclear

Other renewables

Hydro

Gas

Coal

Most of the additional demand for electricity is expected to be met by coal, which remains the world’s largest source of electricity to 2030


Reference scenario energy related co 2 emissions by fuel

50

40

Increase of

14.3 Gt (55%)

30

billion tonnes

20

10

0

1990

2004

2010

2015

2030

Coal

Oil

Gas

Reference Scenario:Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Fuel

Half of the projected increase in emissions comes from new power stations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India


Reference scenario cumulative investment 2005 2030

Reference Scenario:Cumulative Investment, 2005-2030

$20.2 trillion (in $2005)

Electricity

56%

Oil 21%

$11.3 trillion

$4.3 trillion

Biofuels 1%

$0.6 trillion

$3.9 trillion

Gas 19%

Coal 3%

Investment needs exceed $20 trillion – $3 trillion more than previously projected, mainly because of higher unit costs


Alternative policy scenario

Alternative Policy Scenario


World energy outlook key trends

The Alternative Policy Scenario:Key Policies for CO2 Reduction

42

Increased nuclear (10%)

Increased renewables (12%)

Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%)

38

Electricity end-use efficiency (29%)

Reference Scenario

Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%)

34

Gt of CO2

Alternative Policy Scenario

30

26

2004

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Improved end-use efficiency accounts for over two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030 in the APS


Summing up

Summing Up

  • The Reference Scenario projects a vulnerable, dirty and expensive global energy system

  • The WEO maps out a cleaner, cleverer and more competitive energy future based on alternative policies

  • Action within next ten years is crucial.

  • Strong political will and urgent government action is needed to create clear incentives to change existing investment patterns


Weo 2007 why focus on china india

China

Energy demand

India

Rest of the world

Coal demand

Oil demand

Oil imports

CO2 emissions

0%

0%

20%

20%

40%

40%

60%

60%

80%

80%

100%

100%

WEO 2007: Why Focus on China & India?

Increase in World Primary Energy Demand, Imports & Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in the Reference Scenario, 2000-2006

China & India contributed more than half of the increase in global demand

for energy and over 80% for coal


Thank you pawel olejarnik@iea org www worldenergyoutlook org

Thank you

[email protected]

www.worldenergyoutlook.org


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