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Application of low-resolution ETA model data to provide guidance to high impact weather in complex terrain. Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland Juan Bazo, Gerardo Jacome & Luis Metzger Servicio National de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI), Peru.

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Juha Kilpinen Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland

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Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Application of low-resolution ETA model data to provide guidance to high impact weather in complex terrain

Juha Kilpinen

Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland

Juan Bazo, Gerardo Jacome & Luis Metzger

Servicio National de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (SENAMHI), Peru


Co operation between fmi and senamhi

Co-operation between FMI and SENAMHI

Institutional development

  • Among the items:

  • Forecast verification (training, application development: an entry level verification system)

  • Post-processing of NWP output (training, application development: testing of Kalman filtering for NWP data)

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

EUMETCAL training tools used

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


User interface for the verifcation system at senamhi

User-interface for the verifcation system at SENAMHI

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Introduction

Introduction

  • Peruvian ETA-model data is available for guidance at Peruvian Hydro-meteorological service (SENAMHI). The application of rather low resolution (22 km grid) data is not straight forward in complex terrain in terms of topography, climatic zones and sharp land-sea gradient.

  • The applicability of the data is evaluated and if some problems are encountered a solution will be searched. So far data has been partly verified and tests with Kalman filter have started. The test data includes maximum and minimum temperature.

  • Another focus is the heavy precipitation in Machu Picchu area resulting flooding and danger to life and property.

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Data

  • ETA-model

  • Resolution 22 km

  • 18 vertical levels

  • Output 6 h interval up to 72 h

  • Kain Frish cumulus parameterization

  • the GFS global model data is used for the lateral boundaries

  • No data assimilation is made

  • Test data periods: temperature 2009-2010

  • Precipitation 2010

  • Observations (21 stations)

  • Tumbes

  • Piura

  • Huánuco

  • Pucallpa

  • Lima

  • Andahuaylas

  • Cuzco

  • Tacna

  • Chiclayo

  • Chimbote

  • Cajamarca

  • Tarapoto

  • Yurimaguas

  • Iquitos

  • Tingo Maria

  • Trujillo

  • Ayacucho

  • Puerto Maldonado

  • Arequipa

  • Juliaca

  • Pisco

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Methods post processing kalman filter

Methods – post-processing/Kalman filter

  • Only for temperature forecasts:

  • Two state parameters

    • TKalman = B1 + B2 * TETA

  • Optimized estimation of measurement noise R and system noise Q

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Methods verification

Methods - verification

  • For temperature forecasts:

  • ME (Mean Error)

  • RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error)

  • HR (Hit Rate) (not shown)

  • Also other scores

  • For precipitation forecasts (categories):

  • B (Bias)

  • PC (Percent correct)

  • POD (Probability of Detection)

  • FAR (False Alarm Rate)

  • KSS (Kuipers Skill Score)

  • TS (Threat Score)

  • ETS (Equility Threat Score)

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Stations in focus:Cusco 3399 m Pucallpa 154 m Andahuaylas 2866 m Huanuco 1859 m Lima 13 mTacna 452 m Machu Picchu

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Temperature verification

Cusco (near Machu Picchu) 3399 m


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Pucallpa 154m


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Andahuaylas 2866 m


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Huanuco 1859 m


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Lima 13 m


Juha kilpinen finnish meteorological institute fmi finland

Tacna 452 m


Machu picchu area verification of eta model

Precipitation forecasts

Machu Picchu area verification of ETA model

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Machu picchu 2010

Machu Picchu 2010

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Categorical results machu picchu 2010

Categorical results: Machu Picchu 2010

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • The preliminary results indicate that ETA model has problems with temperature forecasts in most regions; in tropical rain forest, at mountains and near coastline affected by cold sea current. The application of Kalman filter was used to minimize systematic errors from the ETA-model and rather encouraging results was received.

  • For precipitation forecasts ETA model is not able to forecast higher precipitation amounts correctly

  • A higher resolution (e.g. WRF) NWP model would be a way to inprove the forecast quality in complex terrain

Kilpinen-Bazo-Jacome-Metzger


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