1 / 24

American River Basin Study: Development of Future Climate & Hydrology Scenarios

This study aims to develop climate and hydrology scenarios specific to the American River Basin, evaluating water supply and demand imbalances and proposing adaptation strategies.

virgiej
Download Presentation

American River Basin Study: Development of Future Climate & Hydrology Scenarios

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. American River Basin Study: Development of Future Climate & Hydrology Scenarios Ian Ferguson, PhD, PE Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center

  2. Study Overview Objectives • Build on the SSJRBS • Develop data, tools, analyses, and adaptation strategies specific to American River Basin • Further develop and evaluate strategies to address current and projected imbalances between water supplies and demands

  3. Study Overview Study Partners • Bureau of Reclamation • Placer County Water Agency (PCWA) • City of Roseville • City of Sacramento • El Dorado County Water Agency (EDCWA) • City of Folsom • Regional Water Authority

  4. Study Overview Study Data & Tools • Climate Datasets • Observations: Livneh et al. 2015 • Downscaled Projections: LOCA • Hydrology Model • Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Hydrology Model • Planning/Operations Model • CalSim3 Includes new refined representation of American River Basin Livneh et al Obs. Climate LOCA Climate Projections Climate Scenarios VIC Hydrology Model Hydrology Scenarios

  5. Study Overview Study Data & Tools • Climate Datasets • Observations: Livneh et al. 2015 • Downscaled Projections: LOCA • Hydrology Model • Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Hydrology Model • Planning/Operations Model • CalSim3 Includes new refined representation of American River Basin Historical Inputs: CalSim Historical Inputs: CalSimHydro Hydrology Scenarios Climate Scenarios Scenario Inputs: CalSim Scenario Inputs: CalSimHydro CalSimHydro CalSim3

  6. Climate Scenarios Ensemble-Informed Period-Change Climate Scenarios: • Distill large number of projections into manageable number of scenarios for detailed analysis • Combine projected climate change with observed historical climate variability • Consistency with planning tools/methods based on fixed level-of-development or build-out conditions

  7. Climate Scenarios Future Time Horizons

  8. Climate Scenarios Projection Selection

  9. Climate Scenarios Quantile Mapping

  10. Climate Scenarios Quantile Mapping

  11. Climate Scenarios

  12. Climate Scenarios

  13. Climate Scenarios Precipitation 2040-2069 Hotter & Drier Warmer & Wetter

  14. Climate Scenarios Precipitation 2070-2099 Hotter & Drier Warmer & Wetter

  15. Climate Scenarios Temperature 2040-2069 Hotter & Drier Warmer & Wetter

  16. Climate Scenarios Temperature 2070-2099 Hotter & Drier Warmer & Wetter

  17. Hydrology Scenarios Total Runoff 2040-2069 Hotter & Drier Warmer & Wetter

  18. Hydrology Scenarios Total Runoff 2070-2099 Hotter & Drier Warmer & Wetter

  19. Hydrology Scenarios Total Runoff 2070-2099

  20. Hydrology Scenarios Total Runoff 2070-2099

  21. Hydrology Scenarios Reference ET (ETo) 2070-2099

  22. Hydrology Scenarios Reference ET (ETo) 2070-2099

  23. Summary • New suite of climate and hydrology scenarios for CVP/SWP watersheds • Period-change ensemble-informed methodology • Based on projected changes in precipitation and temperature over American River Basin • Scenarios project significant changes in water supply (runoff) and demand (ETo) • Basin Study will use scenarios to evaluate future CVP/SWP performance and reliability under current operations and proposed adaptation strategies.

  24. Summary • Additional talks re: American River Basin Study on Wednesday Afternoon (1:15-3:30) Matthew Bachman Upper American River Representation in CalSim 3.0 Raymond Hoang Application of CalSim 3.0 in the American River Basin Study

More Related