John Tirpak Science Coordinator, GCPOLCC GCPOLCC Steering Committee Meeting

1. Adaptation Science Management Team The GCPO LCC Approach to Applying an SHC Conservation Framework John Tirpak Science Coordinator, GCPOLCC GCPOLCC Steering Committee Meeting SEAFWA Conference, Hot Springs, AR October9, 2012

2. Objectives • Provide Steering Committee an overview of the Adaptation Science Management Team Workshop • Highlight key findings and recommendations from Adaptation Science Management Team • Identify next steps and provide opportunity for Steering Committee feedback

3. Outline • Past • Function and structure of ASMT • Present • Meeting in Starkville, MS • Conservation frameworks • Conceptual models • Conservation targets • Future • Recommendations • Next steps

4. Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks LCC • Mission • To define, design, and deliver landscapes capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future • Steering Committee • Guide direction and set broad goals of GCPOLCC

5. LCC GoalsLong- and Short-Term Long-Term Goals Short-Term Goals Highlight LCC’s functional role Demonstrate tangible relevance Work with partnerships Support underserved partners • Integrate priorities across resource perspectives • Incorporate future change into current planning

6. LCC GoalsProjects with LCC Involvement

7. Questions • All of these are “good” projects, but are they the “right” projects? • Who thinks through the technical challenges associated with the goals of the Partnership? • Who has the big picture in mind? • How do individual projects add up to a meaningful whole? • How do we communicate that big picture?

10. Adaptation Science Management TeamStructure

11. Adaptation Science Management TeamStructure

12. Adaptation Science Management TeamStructure Functional Researcher Manager Both Organizational Federal State NGO/Private Partnership

13. Populating the ASMT • Solicited nomination by partners, partnerships, individuals • Worked with Partnership Council to make initial selections • Steering Committee approved final decisions

14. Adaptation Science Management TeamOfficial Members

15. A Charge from Steering CommitteeNotes from April 2012 SC Meeting • “Task the Adaptation Science Management Team to report back to the Steering Committee on how the issues of nutrient management/water quality, wetlands and ecosystem services within the GCPO LCC landscape should be addressed and/or science combined to have greatest impact on the Gulf, particularly with respect to the hypoxia issue. These three issues should be considered three of a larger set that the ASMT may address within the entire GCPO landscape. The focus should include how these connections can drive the science, conservation planning and decision support tools needed to fill gaps for connecting the GCPO LCC to the Gulf. The ASMT should address questions such as, do these issues need to be tackled together or independently? What is out there right now in terms of research and tools? What is missing?”

16. A Charge from Steering CommitteeNotes from April 2012 SC Meeting • “Task the Adaptation Science Management Team to report back to the Steering Committee on how the issues of nutrient management/water quality, wetlands and ecosystem services within the GCPO LCC landscape should be addressed and/or science combined to have greatest impact on the Gulf, particularly with respect to the hypoxia issue. These three issues should be considered three of a larger set that the ASMT may address within the entire GCPO landscape. The focus should include how these connections can drive the science, conservation planning and decision support tools needed to fill gaps for connecting the GCPO LCC to the Gulf. The ASMT should address questions such as, do these issues need to be tackled together or independently? What is out there right now in terms of research and tools? What is missing?”

17. A Charge from Steering CommitteeNotes from April 2012 SC Meeting • “Task the Adaptation Science Management Team to report back to the Steering Committee on how the issues of nutrient management/water quality, wetlands and ecosystem services within the GCPO LCC landscape should be addressed and/or science combined to have greatest impact on the Gulf, particularly with respect to the hypoxia issue. These three issues should be considered three of a larger set that the ASMT may address within the entire GCPO landscape. The focus should include how these connections can drive the science, conservation planning and decision support tools needed to fill gaps for connecting the GCPO LCC to the Gulf. The ASMT should address questions such as, do these issues need to be tackled together or independently? What is out there right now in terms of research and tools? What is missing?”

18. A Charge from Steering CommitteeNotes from April 2012 SC Meeting • “Task the Adaptation Science Management Team to report back to the Steering Committee on how the issues of nutrient management/water quality, wetlands and ecosystem services within the GCPO LCC landscape should be addressed and/or science combined to have greatest impact on the Gulf, particularly with respect to the hypoxia issue. These three issues should be considered three of a larger set that the ASMT may address within the entire GCPO landscape. The focus should include how these connections can drive the science, conservation planning and decision support tools needed to fill gaps for connecting the GCPO LCC to the Gulf. The ASMT should address questions such as, do these issues need to be tackled together or independently? What is out there right now in terms of research and tools? What is missing?”

19. Initial Tasks for the ASMT • Outline a Conservation Adaptation Strategy • What does SHC look like in the GCPOLCC? • Prioritize science needed to develop and implement Conservation Adaptation Strategy • Develop a ‘Science Agenda’

20. Adaptation Science Management TeamInaugural Workshop • Three topics • Conservation frameworks • Conceptual models • Conservation targets • MSU-GRI • Starkville, MS • Sept 18-20, 2012 • ½ day, full day, ½ day

21. Adaptation Science Management TeamOfficial Members

22. Adaptation Science Management TeamMeeting Attendees

23. Adaptation Science Management TeamMeeting Attendees

24. Adaptation Science Management TeamMeeting Attendees

25. Adaptation Science Management TeamMeeting Attendees

26. Outline • Past • Function and structure of ASMT • Present • Meeting in Starkville, MS • Conservation frameworks • Conceptual models • Conservation targets

27. Conservation FrameworkDefined • A group of logical categories for organizing conservation activities

28. Conservation FrameworkStrategic Habitat Conservation • Strategic Habitat Conservation is the approach endorsed by Steering Committee

29. Key Question to ASMT • How do we apply and adopt the broad SHC framework to the mission of the GCPOLCC? • What are valuable elements of a stepped-down conservation framework? • Explore approaches from multiple LCCs • Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks – Prediction • North Atlantic – Toolbox • Peninsular Florida – Scenario Planning • South Atlantic – Optimization

32. Initial Feedback • An overarching modeling framework is something to pursue in the very near term • Decision context for models is critical

33. Initial Feedback • “As simple as possible, but no simpler”

34. Preliminary Recommendation • Pursue a modeling approach that incorporates scenario planning and explicitly ties projections to specific conservation decisions -Einstein

35. Outline • Past • Function and structure of ASMT • Present • Meeting in Starkville, MS • Conservation frameworks • Conceptual models

36. Conceptual ModelDefined • Tool to represent, communicate, and analyze the structure, function, and hierarchical relationships of systems

37. Objective of Conceptual Modeling • Level the information playing field • Developing conceptual models collaboratively allows us collectively to see the system similarly

38. Why is that Important? • Mission of LCC • Define, design, and deliver landscapes capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future • This requires us to see the system holistically • Connections among resource interests • Identification of key drivers, stressors, and endpoints in the system

39. Developing Conceptual ModelsSteps • Henderson and O’Neil • Identify objectives and uses of the model • Delineate spatial and temporal scales • Identify structural components of system • Identify the sources of change in the system • Henderson and O’Neil (2004)

40. Objective of Conceptual Modeling • Level the information playing field • Developing conceptual models collaboratively allows us collectively to see the system similarly • Identify and organize system components • Identify relationships among these components • Effectively communicate system complexity

41. Applications of Conceptual Model • Integrate information across disciplines • Assess knowledge gaps and prioritize science needs • Identify appropriate conservation targets

42. Developing Conceptual ModelsSteps • Henderson and O’Neil • Identify objectives and uses of the model • Delineate spatial and temporal scales • Henderson and O’Neil (2004)

43. Spatial Scale

44. Developing Conceptual ModelsSteps • Henderson and O’Neil • Identify objectives and uses of the model • Delineate spatial and temporal scales • Identify structural components of system • Henderson and O’Neil (2004)

45. Developing Conceptual ModelsSteps • Henderson and O’Neil • Identify objectives and uses of the model • Delineate spatial and temporal scales • Identify structural components of system • Henderson and O’Neil (2004)

46. Structural Components of the Model • Henderson and O’Neil • Drivers • Stressors • Essential Ecosystem Characteristics • Endpoints • Henderson and O’Neil (2004)

47. Model ComponentsDrivers • Natural or anthropogenic factors that cause change in environmental conditions • Climate change • Agriculture • Urbanization • Recreation • Transportation • Resource extraction • Others

49. Model ComponentsStressors • Physical, chemical, and biological changes that result from natural and human-caused forces (drivers) and effect other changes in ecosystem structure and function

50. Model ComponentsStressors • Examples stressors from urbanization (driver) • Forest fragmentation • More edge, smaller patch sizes, loss of connectivity • Increase in invasive species • Altered disturbance regimes • Timing, duration, extent, frequency • Increased water temperature • Altered flow • Reduced flow, increased flashiness