IC4D and Digital Forecast Process Evolution

1. IC4D and Digital ForecastProcessEvolution David Ruth October 2009

2. Observations Numerical Modeling Numerical Output Sensible Weather Digital Forecast Model Interpret. Forecast Editing Product Generation User Products The Digital Forecast Process

3. Matrix Editing Numerical Modeling Numerical Output Sensible Weather Digital Forecast Model Interpret. Forecast Editing Product Generation The Digital Forecast Process The Human in the Loop Observations User Products

4. Matrix Editing ICWF InteractiveGuidanceRevisor ( 1987-2003 )

5. Matrix Editing Canada’sSCRIBE

6. Matrix Editing Grid Editing Numerical Modeling Numerical Output Sensible Weather Digital Forecast Model Interpret. Forecast Editing Product Generation The Digital Forecast Process Observations User Products

7. Grid Editing GraphicalForecastEditor

8. Grid Editing KMAGraphicEditingModule

9. Object Editing Matrix Editing Grid Editing Numerical Modeling Numerical Output Sensible Weather Digital Forecast Model Interpret. Forecast Editing Product Generation The Digital Forecast Process Observations User Products

10. Object Editing Canada’sForecast Production Assistant

11. Threshold Adjustment Matrix Editing Grid Editing Object Editing Numerical Modeling Numerical Output Sensible Weather Digital Forecast Model Interpret. Forecast Editing Product Generation The Digital Forecast Process Observations User Products

12. Threshold Adjustment IFPSSliderBars (1997-2003)

13. Threshold Adjustment InteractiveCalibration of a4D Datacube

14. IC4D for AAWU

15. 4D Field Modification Threshold Adjustment Object Editing Matrix Editing Grid Editing Numerical Modeling Numerical Output Sensible Weather Digital Forecast Model Interpret. Forecast Editing Product Generation The Digital Forecast Process Observations User Products

16. UKMET 4D Field Modification

17. Grid Editing Grid Editing 4D Field Modification Threshold Adjustment Object Editing Matrix Editing Numerical Modeling Numerical Output Sensible Weather Digital Forecast Model Interpret. Forecast Editing Product Generation The Digital Forecast Process Observations User Products

18. Adapting the Forecast Process to Meet NextGen Requirements • Existing forecaster tools not designed to meet emerging NextGen requirements • Must extend digital services into the vertical • Forecast Process SON is in the works • Will document consistency, representativeness, spatial and temporal resolution, accuracy needs • Need to work methodology for meteorologist contributions in 4-D domain • Expectations must be clear and reasonable

19. Exploring Forecaster’s Role • Challenge: Must deliver 4-D grids for the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS). • How does the forecaster add value to the 4-D Grids? • IC4D prototype provides one way to explore concept of operations for adding value in 4-D environment • Other alternatives (e.g., USAF) will also be explored • Process must be flexible, adaptable, and consistent • Current IC4D work falls within OSIP Stage 2 -- Concept of Operations Development

20. IC4D Prototype Graphical Turbulence in IC4D

21. IC4D Background • Interactive Calibration of Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) will allow forecasters to interactively adjust the interpretation of aviation model guidance • Specify model (or blend of models) to use where and when • Adjust thresholds in algorithms that produce sensible weather (mountain turbulence, convective icing) • Adjust positioning or timing of events • Nudge model forecasts toward latest observations, radar, satellite, or more recent model guidance • Two test sites currently prepared to evaluate IC4D • Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) • WFO-Honolulu

22. IC4D Software Development • MDL prototype software built on Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) used at WFOs • In development since 2004 • Model interpretation techniques were added to the IC4D toolset • Software infrastructure of the GFE remains intact • Numerous other capabilities have been added (e.g., observation plotting, PUFF volcanic ash dispersion guidance, SIGMET/AIRMET product generation tools) PUFF volcanic ash forecast for Mt Redoubt

23. IC4D prototype in Alaska • Moves the AAWU into the gridded, digital forecast world • Evaluates first steps of JPDO-NextGen 4D Cube goals and objectives • Enhances the automated verification of aviation products • Promotes a straightforward grid exchange and collaboration mechanism among the AAWU and Alaska field offices • Furnished the capability to create internally consistent graphics and text • Provides the capacity to deliver output types compatible with multiple users systems 23

24. Turbulence PIREP locations Forecaster interactively nudges forecast towards PIPEP values How AK is using IC4D TodayNudging Turbulence Forecast Towards Latest PIREPs

25. How AK is using IC4D TodayAdjusting RH Grids and Text Generators RH NAM 40km 625mb Adjusted RH NAM 40km 625mb

26. IC4D prototype in Hawaii • Running two domains in tandem • 20km resolution across much of the central and southern Pacific • 2.5km resolution across the main Hawaiian Islands

27. IC4D prototype in Hawaii • Using IC4D to create finer horizontal and vertical resolution forecast • Transition San Francisco to Honolulu Route Forecast into IC4D • Forecasters can modify model headwind/ tailwind fields • Crucial decision support to general aviation transit aircraft

28. What’s Next? • MDL is tasked to continue IC4D development and support of test sites through next FY, proposed through FY12 • Additional software capabilities • Develop enhanced grid adjustment/calibration tools • Add new sources of aviation model guidance (e.g., High Resolution Rapid Refresh) • Advanced visualization/data navigation capabilities • Test bed support • Continue test and evaluation at AAWU and WFO-HFO. Updates for software and hardware as available/needed • IC4D test bed at AWC. Planning underway, installation this fall